Coronavirus - do you trust the UK Government to make the right decisions ?

Coronavirus - do you trust the UK government to make the right decisions?

  • Yes

    Votes: 121 27.8%
  • No

    Votes: 314 72.2%

  • Total voters
    435

DJDave87

Active Member
I'm in group 6 for other reasons. I don't think you appreciate just how complex Asthma is and how quickly you can go from having well controlled asthma to it not being controlled or suffering a fatal Asthma attack seemingly out of the blue. Hence part of the anger from asthmatics booted out of group 6, the other part of the anger is to do with basically not setting foot outside (other than for medical appointments etc) for the past year to minimise infection risk due to the warnings issued by Government to asthmatics about being vulnerable to COVID-19. Everyone knows Governments let you down, but this is particularly galling as they've led Asthmatics up a garden path without directly addressing why Asthmatics have been removed from group 6 other than vague references to evidence that looks to be flawed as it can't quantify the impact of the measures taken by asthmatics to mitigate COVID-19 infection risk.




Again you are not appreciating the nature of Asthma. It looks to be a decision based on a calculation that not many asthmatics will die from COVID-19 so they can be removed to speed up the vaccination of group 6 and thus hit targets on time. Pragmatism has nothing to do with this, if the Government were being pragmatic they'd have kept all asthmatics in groups 1-9 to lower the risk of the NHS having to deal with long COVID in Asthmatics. Asthmatics might not die from COVID-19 but the long term effects of a COVID-19 infection look to be significant and likely expensive for the NHS to treat.



The current Government made critical mistakes over and over again. It's part of why the death toll is around 120,000+. If they are ever held to account for those mistakes and deaths is anyone's guess at the moment. Who you vote for doesn't really come into this until the next General Election.



The R rate is already predicted to be pushed over 1 by Government scientists with a best case scenario of maybe an extra 30,000 deaths as a result of restrictions being eased. As for Children, you seem to have not taken in that children haven't been vaccinated as yet due to pending clinical trials to assess the safety and efficacy of vaccines in children under 16. If those trials go well, then you can expect later in the year or maybe early next year for the government to start a vaccination programme of children in schools if that's where the evidence points.
If Government wants to keep schools open, then they have no choice but to vaccinate teachers and support staff so they don't have to isolate classes or entire year groups. They haven't done it, so I expect we'll see schools opening and closing due to infections and self isolation requirements.

This isn't about winners and losers, this is about hard science and a Government that barely pays attention to science unless it suits them or the NHS is at risk of collapse.

With the greatest respect, information surrounding asthmatics is largely irrelevant to me, admittedly i dont appreciate it, i was talking about schools and you brought asthmatics in to it. Theres variability in every group, diabetics, overweight people, old people, men and women. Aint we all been told that men are more likely to die? Why is no one asking about that priority group? Got an exercise for you, youre welcome to google to find out answers and stats if you want. Put the 65 million people of the UK in to 9 priority groups in order to ascertain the best roll out. I bet you miss a lot of people. I also bet you include a lot of unnecessary people.

And youre doing it again. Youre setting yourself up for a fall. You say the government have no choice but to vaccinate teachers, yet literally everything youre looking at is telling you they do have a choice, and they are not going to vaccinate teachers as a priority group. But here you are still assuming teachers will and or have to be vaccinated?

Have you considered the long term impacts on the NHS will be moot if there is no NHS? I appreciate you standing up for asthmatics. I do think im doing that too but more long term. It is about winners and losers. The winners proportionately will be the people with asthma now, at least being considered vs those who are seeking treatment from an even more underfunded over demanded NHS in the future. Tell me how asthmatics fit in with that?

Science is a good argument. Id argue that we havent followed science with dealing with this pandemic. The vast majority of our actions have been based on assumptions in the absence of knowledge, thats about as unsciencey as you can get, i mean are you at risk or not and how much risk? Yet youre taking actions without knowing those specifics youre not working with facts are you? Also were not just dealing with natural sciences here. Were dealing with social sciences too. Something that doesnt really do facts that well.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Incase anyone's interested, here's part of the SAGE document highlighting what I mentioned earlier about all scenarios taking us down a rocky road to begin with.

IMG_20210223_192858.jpg
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
With the greatest respect, information surrounding asthmatics is largely irrelevant to me, admittedly i dont appreciate it, i was talking about schools and you brought asthmatics in to it. Theres variability in every group, diabetics, overweight people, old people, men and women. Aint we all been told that men are more likely to die? Why is no one asking about that priority group? Got an exercise for you, youre welcome to google to find out answers and stats if you want. Put the 65 million people of the UK in to 9 priority groups in order to ascertain the best roll out. I bet you miss a lot of people. I also bet you include a lot of unnecessary people.

And youre doing it again. Youre setting yourself up for a fall. You say the government have no choice but to vaccinate teachers, yet literally everything youre looking at is telling you they do have a choice, and they are not going to vaccinate teachers as a priority group. But here you are still assuming teachers will and or have to be vaccinated?

Have you considered the long term impacts on the NHS will be moot if there is no NHS? I appreciate you standing up for asthmatics. I do think im doing that too but more long term. It is about winners and losers. The winners proportionately will be the people with asthma now, at least being considered vs those who are seeking treatment from an even more underfunded over demanded NHS in the future. Tell me how asthmatics fit in with that?

Science is a good argument. Id argue that we havent followed science with dealing with this pandemic. The vast majority of our actions have been based on assumptions in the absence of knowledge, thats about as unsciencey as you can get, i mean are you at risk or not and how much risk? Yet youre taking actions without knowing those specifics youre not working with facts are you? Also were not just dealing with natural sciences here. Were dealing with social sciences too. Something that doesnt really do facts that well.
There are multiple considerations to consider here and science can only go so far in limiting aspects of the pandemic . The side effects of the pandemic on the population, economic strain ,mental health issues, and much more we will be dealing with for years to come .

The world we have now is playing catch up and learning as we go .
 

Mevlock

Member
Incase anyone's interested, here's part of the SAGE document highlighting what I mentioned earlier about all scenarios taking us down a rocky road to begin with.

View attachment 1465754

My brains starting to hurt from reading so many different analysis of the reopening plans since yesterday.

The one common factor seems to be vaccine rollout and transmission effect.

All the models show that just small variations in how many people get vaccinated and how much they stop transmission can dramatically affect hospitisations and deaths.

I can't do much about government policy personally but I'm making sure everyone I know understands how critical the vaccine rollout is. Its then up to them to make the right decision.

This is one of those rare occasions when a personal decision can affect everyone else in the uk.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
My brains starting to hurt from reading so many different analysis of the reopening plans since yesterday.

The one common factor seems to be vaccine rollout and transmission effect.

All the models show that just small variations in how many people get vaccinated and how much they stop transmission can dramatically affect hospitisations and deaths.

I can't do much about government policy personally but I'm making sure everyone I know understands how critical the vaccine rollout is. Its then up to them to make the right decision.

This is one of those rare occasions when a personal decision can affect everyone else in the uk.

That's why I've said from the beginning that it should just be compulsory. The greater good should overrule personal preference in a global crisis.

I think the thing to take away from all the analyses is that we're risking it getting worse before it gets better. That seems to be a universal acceptance. Unless we wait for everyone to be vaccinated, but that's not really viable at this point.

The government could have done more though (as usual) to help smooth the process. Likely too late now, so it's all going to be about how we react if things start crumbling. It will need to be swift and precise.
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
The Ethiad is only vaccinating at 50% of capacity, and Chester racecourse has capacity to vaccinate 2000 people a day but currently vaccinating 800 people a day.

So is there a significant shortage of the vaccine?
 

Philly112

Distinguished Member
The Ethiad is only vaccinating at 50% of capacity, and Chester racecourse has capacity to vaccinate 2000 people a day but currently vaccinating 800 people a day.

So is there a significant shortage of the vaccine?

It's quite hard to get to the bottom of it. Hancock says there is a supply issue, Sturgeon also says it's because the uptake was higher than expected, and that it's also because of stockpiling for second doses. The suppliers say they are delivering on schedule. Although AZ hint that there have been some fluctuations.

 

DJDave87

Active Member
From the 29th of March. Rule of six outside (including private gardens) or two full households even if that means more than 6 people. But as IronGiant says staying local until the 12 of April.

If you mean a barbecue with multiple households then I don't think that will be legal until step 3, on the 17th of May when there will be a 30 person limit outdoors.
Ah thanks, so you are correct @DJDave87 :thumbsup:
For now! Ill take it though (as in glad i understood it this time)!

Chatting with BBQ boys last night, theyve convinced me im wrong again!

Theyre working, and to be fair it says either or, on the basis that we will be able to have a socially distanced BBQ in one of their gardens from the 29th March (its definitely going to chuck it down!).

There doesnt appear to be any limitation on the number of households for the group of 6. Essentially you can have 6 individuals, all from different households, meeting outdoors.
 

Mevlock

Member
Chatting with BBQ boys last night, theyve convinced me im wrong again!

Theyre working, and to be fair it says either or, on the basis that we will be able to have a socially distanced BBQ in one of their gardens from the 29th March (its definitely going to chuck it down!).

There doesnt appear to be any limitation on the number of households for the group of 6. Essentially you can have 6 individuals, all from different households, meeting outdoors.
My head hurts.

But yes.

It's going to be a cluster fudge as things reopen.
 

Mevlock

Member
Surely by June everyone at risk will have been vaccinated? So even if numbers go through the roof, risk to the general public and to the vulnerable will be minimal?

Not if you read all the modelling done so far.

We could could still have a considerable number of deaths. Vaccines aren't 100% efficient. Some won't respond well to them, there will always be a percentage who refuse to get vaccinated.

The initial efficacy numbers are all looking great but once you consider we have 67 million people in the uk it can still work out that an awful lot of people will end up in hospital and or dead.

Say 80% of adults take the vaccine that still leaves 10 million unvaccinated. Plus 15 million children.

That's 25 million unvaccinated people spreading the virus to those who yes have been vaccinated but for many reasons might not have responded well to it.

It only takes a very small percentage of the population to end up in hospital and overwhelm the NHS.

It's very much a balancing act going forward as we reopen. Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate and slowly release measures making sure the NHS can cope.

One model I keep refering to suggests a small but sizable resurgence in autumn/winter. But it very much depends (as do all the modes) on vaccine take up and efficiacy. However that model also predicts it would likely be the last one as natural immunity would add to the vaccine takeup and prevent future waves. At least until the virus mutates enough to start reinfecting in large numbers. Howver we should be able to take care of this through booster shots.
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
Not if you read all the modelling done so far.

We could could still have a considerable number of deaths. Vaccines aren't 100% efficient. Some won't respond well to them, there will always be a percentage who refuse to get vaccinated.

The initial efficacy numbers are all looking great but once you consider we have 67 million people in the uk it can still work out that an awful lot of people will end up in hospital and or dead.

Say 80% of adults take the vaccine that still leaves 10 million unvaccinated. Plus 15 million children.

That's 25 million unvaccinated people spreading the virus to those who yes have been vaccinated but for many reasons might not have responded well to it.

It only takes a very small percentage of the population to end up in hospital and overwhelm the NHS.

It's very much a balancing act going forward as we reopen. Vaccinate vaccinate vaccinate and slowly release measures making sure the NHS can cope.

One model I keep refering to suggests a small but sizable resurgence in autumn/winter. But it very much depends (as do all the modes) on vaccine take up and efficiacy. However that model also predicts it would likely be the last one as natural immunity would add to the vaccine takeup and prevent future waves. At least until the virus mutates enough to start reinfecting in large numbers. Howver we should be able to take care of this through booster shots.
Thanks.

But even so, a line will have to be drawn under this at some point (I'm not saying that June is that point by the way, but the current situation of lockdowns and easing can't continue indefinitely).

Children will have lost the best part of 12 months education. That's salvageable for many, over time. 24 months - less so.

Not to mention the economic argument (which must always come second the medical / preservation of life one).
 

Mevlock

Member
Thanks.

But even so, a line will have to be drawn under this at some point (I'm not saying that June is that point by the way, but the current situation of lockdowns and easing can't continue indefinitely).

Children will have lost the best part of 12 months education. That's salvageable for many, over time. 24 months - less so.

Not to mention the economic argument (which must always come second the medical / preservation of life one).

Yup, the governments approach is basically, vaccinate as much as possible, lots will still get ill and die but the NHS will be able to cope as we reopen.

They, for obvious reasons. aren't really being that clear about how many people will still suffer through all of this until we really get things under control. Whether that's through better test and trace, mass vaccination, border controls, better vaccines or whatever.

They've decided on an acceptable level of illness and death. and as long as they don't have to push dates back too much further and as long as the vaccination program meets their expectations the public will probably accept it. Not be ok with it but accept it.

I'm not personally making a judgement call here, I'll leave that to others. But people really need to understand that reopening will come with a cost.
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
Yup, the governments approach is basically, vaccinate as much as possible, lots will still get ill and die but the NHS will be able to cope as we reopen.

They, for obvious reasons. aren't really being that clear about how many people will still suffer through all of this until we really get things under control. Whether that's through better test and trace, mass vaccination, border controls, better vaccines or whatever.

They've decided on an acceptable level of illness and death. and as long as they don't have to push dates back too much further and as long as the vaccination program meets their expectations the public will probably accept it. Not be ok with it but accept it.

I'm not personally making a judgement call here, I'll leave that to others. But people really need to understand that reopening will come with a cost.
Yes - I've very glad it's not my decision to make and I think the Government is currently doing a reasonably good job of managing risk to life. But I would say we're reaching the end game now, apart from perhaps very short, highly-localised lockdowns in the future.
 

davidjohnson

Distinguished Member
I have reached the point where I have take an optimistic view otherwise I am going to start struggling. There are many aspects of lockdown that don't affect/bother me, so it must be absolute hell for others, but after 12 months I am reaching my limits.
 

Mevlock

Member
I have reached the point where I have take an optimistic view otherwise I am going to start struggling. There are many aspects of lockdown that don't affect/bother me, so it must be absolute hell for others, but after 12 months I am reaching my limits.

I reached that point a little while back. I feel like I've no choice but to be optimistic, the alternative is just more depression.

So I try to be realistic about things but also throw in a little optimism to keep me going ;)
 

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