Having some idle time at work (not as nice as you might think ) I thought I would do a bit of Interweb research.
My reasoning.......as climate change seems to be happening, we may well be on the way to a warm period such as the Medieval Warm period. That being the case, during that period people must have lived in areas not prone to flooding. Simple logic really, but I can only get the maps through the National Archives which is going to cost, so I just kept going to try and find out how the whole world reacted during that period.
The research was inconclusive, but what I began to understand is a simple fact..........change in the climate is far from simple and although it can be linked with sea level rise, it is not wise to try and model anything off a few measurements.
For instance:
During 1979 solar activity on the Sun was at its highest peak of an 11 year cycle (this 11 year cycle is well documented). The solar flares caused our atmosphere to expand. Thats the reason skylab fell out of the sky, the atmosphere engulfed it and slowed its orbital speed. During the middle ages we had a mini-ice age, this was when the suns activity was at its lowest, but it would be conjecture to consider this as the reason for the ice age. In the same way as mans contribution to the greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming. Interestingly there was activity on the Sun during this period but only on its South pole.
An expanded atmosphere can contribute to global warming, but again, not in isolation. It depends very much where it has expanded and the axis of the Earth. This axis is constantly moving with respect to the sun (this is what makes the seasons change) and can cause localised warming which in turn can create huge climate changes.
So, with just these two variables alone it becomes almost impossible to predict anything with any certainty (bearing in mind we have trouble predicting day to day weather patterns).
Now you need to add a few more variables into the mix.....
Techtonic movement, the shifting of the earths crust. This is not something that happens every million years but something that is happening right now. At one time all the dry land was situated at the North Pole where it was tropical, at one time we had no seasonal variation at all (modern day plants that produce seeds are a survival response to the sudden onset off seasonal variations).
Techtonic movement can alter sea levels fast as the ocean floor rises or lowers. It can plunge highland into flood planes and lowland into mountains and while its doing this it is also altering the climatic patterns and can cause enormous shifts in climate from relatively small movements. It is interesting that land masses in the Yukon, Hudson Bay and Quebec are now rising land masses where they were once the epicentre of glaciation.
Next we have magnetic variations, again, this also has an effect on the atmosphere and its constantly moving making the poles change from North to South (its why you have to apply a magnetic variation to compass readings as true North and magnetic north are different and continue to move year on year).
Then there is an effect from losing ice at the poles......apparently this could alter the speed at which the Earth spins and its angle to the Sun.
Then theres the amount of dust in the atmosphere. get a couple of big volcanoes to erupt and you could be plunged into another ice age almost overnight.
Now, I am not an expert in all this, but it does strike me that there is a lot more going on to alter the climate than we can possibly consider, how anyone can say we are having a major effect. Infact, even if we were having a major effect the whole eco system is so unstable we might wish we had pumped out even more Co2 when the big hand of nature throws the dice.
Nothing man builds is permanent and nothing resists nature, reducing our co2 output is just another version of us trying to impose some control over nature, its just a benign act for all its good intentions. Nature decides when its time to change, its sort of like our own lives, you can eat the best thing, excersise regularly etc, but be wiped out by any number of unexpected things right in your prime, you cant defend against that, you just enjoy the life you have while you have it.
My reasoning.......as climate change seems to be happening, we may well be on the way to a warm period such as the Medieval Warm period. That being the case, during that period people must have lived in areas not prone to flooding. Simple logic really, but I can only get the maps through the National Archives which is going to cost, so I just kept going to try and find out how the whole world reacted during that period.
The research was inconclusive, but what I began to understand is a simple fact..........change in the climate is far from simple and although it can be linked with sea level rise, it is not wise to try and model anything off a few measurements.
For instance:
During 1979 solar activity on the Sun was at its highest peak of an 11 year cycle (this 11 year cycle is well documented). The solar flares caused our atmosphere to expand. Thats the reason skylab fell out of the sky, the atmosphere engulfed it and slowed its orbital speed. During the middle ages we had a mini-ice age, this was when the suns activity was at its lowest, but it would be conjecture to consider this as the reason for the ice age. In the same way as mans contribution to the greenhouse gases is responsible for global warming. Interestingly there was activity on the Sun during this period but only on its South pole.
An expanded atmosphere can contribute to global warming, but again, not in isolation. It depends very much where it has expanded and the axis of the Earth. This axis is constantly moving with respect to the sun (this is what makes the seasons change) and can cause localised warming which in turn can create huge climate changes.
So, with just these two variables alone it becomes almost impossible to predict anything with any certainty (bearing in mind we have trouble predicting day to day weather patterns).
Now you need to add a few more variables into the mix.....
Techtonic movement, the shifting of the earths crust. This is not something that happens every million years but something that is happening right now. At one time all the dry land was situated at the North Pole where it was tropical, at one time we had no seasonal variation at all (modern day plants that produce seeds are a survival response to the sudden onset off seasonal variations).
Techtonic movement can alter sea levels fast as the ocean floor rises or lowers. It can plunge highland into flood planes and lowland into mountains and while its doing this it is also altering the climatic patterns and can cause enormous shifts in climate from relatively small movements. It is interesting that land masses in the Yukon, Hudson Bay and Quebec are now rising land masses where they were once the epicentre of glaciation.
Next we have magnetic variations, again, this also has an effect on the atmosphere and its constantly moving making the poles change from North to South (its why you have to apply a magnetic variation to compass readings as true North and magnetic north are different and continue to move year on year).
Then there is an effect from losing ice at the poles......apparently this could alter the speed at which the Earth spins and its angle to the Sun.
Then theres the amount of dust in the atmosphere. get a couple of big volcanoes to erupt and you could be plunged into another ice age almost overnight.
Now, I am not an expert in all this, but it does strike me that there is a lot more going on to alter the climate than we can possibly consider, how anyone can say we are having a major effect. Infact, even if we were having a major effect the whole eco system is so unstable we might wish we had pumped out even more Co2 when the big hand of nature throws the dice.
Nothing man builds is permanent and nothing resists nature, reducing our co2 output is just another version of us trying to impose some control over nature, its just a benign act for all its good intentions. Nature decides when its time to change, its sort of like our own lives, you can eat the best thing, excersise regularly etc, but be wiped out by any number of unexpected things right in your prime, you cant defend against that, you just enjoy the life you have while you have it.