3 years ago I predicted in a thread on this site that the cinema will die out within a decade due to thre rise of the home cinema. When I posted this view it was dismissed with utter scorn and downright contempt. Some of the comments were even personal in the extreme. Last summer attendance was down in number terms in the US by 10%. There was a debate in the Times about home being the new cinema this week. (Stop press - cinema attendance in Australia has fallen by a staggering 18% in the last 2 years according to ausmedia.com) Many reasons were given for the fall in US attendance. Less convincing was the arguement about crap films. Another possible reason is the greatly improving standards of TV in the US. I think there is some truth in that. TV is far more mature and with improved production values and quality of writing when comparing it with 90s or 80s TV. But also a factor must be the rise in home cinema. I did think projectors would overtake plasma screen. That might come eventually when projectors fall to £500-600 (wait till the Chinese start mass producing them). However plasma screens are easier to sell in shops and are more convieniant then projectors. Cinema exist because they are for most still the only affordable way to see films the way they should be seen. But as more and more people have home cinema I cannot see why anyone would go to the cinema. Before TV most people went to the cinema 3-4 times a week. TV nearly killed it off. Cinema attendance fell by 96% from 1950 to 1984 (statistic.co.uk). TV was more convieniant even thought it was an inferior product (black and white with tiny screen). But with home cinema why would anyone want to go to the cinema? Some would argue that cinemas are like pubs - peoople go for social reasons - the logic being that just because alcahol is avialable at home people still go to pubs. I would argue that cinemas are not social gathering places. People cannot talk to each other at the cinema. I think that the cinema age is coming to a close. Home cinema has all the advantages of cinema without the cost in money ande effort. It is only a matter of when home cinema comes so cheap it will be impossible for cinemas to make a profit, I have nothing against cinema exhibitors but I welcome the demise of the cinema. It is a major barrier to the production of more adventurous films. This is because it raises the revenue required for a film to break even (to start making a profit). This is because 50% of the revenue will go to the cinema exhibitors to cover their costs. If films go straight to DVD or pay per view or internet then the cost of distribution are much lower and filmakers will get a bigger cut of the sales. It will result in more specialized films appealing to niche markets since mass market size revenue will not be need for the film to break even Cinemas undermine national film industries because the extra revenue needed to break even could be too great for local markets to support. Also cinemas discourage original and bold films. This is because going to the cinema is such an investment in time and money that cimema goers would favour safe and easy to like films inorder not to waste his/her limited time. This is totally understandable. The blockbuster is a classic example of a easy to like film. Cinemas may survive in major cities but more as sneak preview, invitation only marketing device to create word of mouth interest. Everyone else will be downloading or watching it on high definition TV or DVD! Welcome to the brave new world!!!