Quantcast

Care home deaths exceed those in hospitals

SteveAWOL

Distinguished Member




 

Nick74

Well-known Member
It depresses me to state this, but these are the kind of numbers I anticipated when comparing UK figures with other European nations on this precise metric.

I questioned the numbers we were given, which suggested less than one in five UK Covid-19 fatalities could be attributed to deaths in care homes. In all other European countries that reported this number roughly half of all Covid-19 fatalities were occurring in care home settings.

With the emergence of new data, it's increasingly apparent that two things have happened:

1. There was a lag in our reporting (with that said, the number of excess deaths in care homes remains notably larger than the number of recorded Covid-19 deaths in care homes).

2. Deaths in care homes were generally occurring later than in hospital, as evidenced by the two peaks and current crossover - as hospital deaths declined, care home deaths increased and recently peaked.

The only remotely encouraging news is that we appear to be past the peak in care homes now, though not by much. Hopefully that's some comfort for those concerned about relatives.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
I questioned the numbers we were given, which suggested less than one in five UK Covid-19 fatalities could be attributed to deaths in care homes. In all other European countries that reported this number roughly half of all Covid-19 fatalities were occurring in care home settings.
I remember it well, and suspected at the time that you had spotted a massive under reporting issue. You were correct. What I don't understand is why you keep telling us that you predicted it?
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
I remember it well, and suspected at the time that you had spotted a massive under reporting issue. You were correct. What I don't understand is why you keep telling us that you predicted it?
Primarily because I received so much **** and opposition at the time, from a group of particular members especially, some of whom questioned my integrity.

I certainly take no pleasure in any of this. Rather, I'm subtly requesting greater consideration before people jump on my contributions.
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
I remember it well, and suspected at the time that you had spotted a massive under reporting issue. You were correct. What I don't understand is why you keep telling us that you predicted it?
I'd add that I haven't gone out of my way to tell people I predicted it.

Your question suggests I've reiterated this point endlessly, which I haven't.

I spent quite a bit of time on this subject several weeks back because I felt the scale of the situation in care homes was being suppressed or, if I wanted to put it less damningly, ignored. I wanted to highlight what I considered to be the most egregiously inaccurate aspect of our reporting.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
I agree with your analysis, I never said endlessly, maybe 3 times? Without checking :)
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
I agree with your analysis, I never said endlessly, maybe 3 times? Without checking :)
Without checking back, beyond my original contributions, I'd say twice. I still feel the issue needs foregrounding. This situation has only crept to the front of the news agenda very recently.

In the example above I offered an update/clarification based on newer data that helped contextualise my earlier observations.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
I'd say twice.
Twice then, happy with that. I'm not arguing with you.

I thought you identified a gaping issue between identified care home cases in the UK compared with elsewhere, and if you agree, it was down to a massive under reporting issue?
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
if you agree, it was down to a massive under reporting issue?
I agree. It was down to a massive issue with reporting. The real question is why?

At the time our official mortality numbers were tracking slightly under, or sometimes equivalent to, other European nations, even after we included "all settings."

If we looked at the data more closely, it was apparent that the UK was in reality tracking above other European countries once we adjusted (in terms of time) for relative positions on the curve.

While people point to the difficulties with international comparison, that's precisely why I focused on one directly comparable metric. I'd also point out that on the most telling metric - excess deaths - the UK (actually just England and Wales) recently topped the European table.

That's not a position any country would proudly occupy. I suspect the government was very aware of the situation and relieved that these figures were underreported, even if only for a matter of weeks.

Anyway, I'll leave that there.
 

simonblue

Distinguished Member
To me it's a disgrace,no doubt the government and its adviser will coming up with usually excuses,it's an unprecedented crisis.
They saw what was happening in places like Italy ?,and wasted time given to them,remember Boris Johnson's first reactions

(Let take it on the chin speech or I am still shaking hand one)
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Primarily because I received so much **** and opposition at the time, from a group of particular members especially, some of whom questioned my integrity.

I certainly take no pleasure in any of this. Rather, I'm subtly requesting greater consideration before people jump on my contributions.
I've particularly appreciated your input on it Nick, naturally with my situation. And I've been following it all very closely myself. Just ignore best you can the ones who try to shut you down with contempt, it's nothing new. As long as you have valid points and aren't breaking any rules, I think it's simply a case of hard lines to anyone who doesn't like it. They can equally choose to ignore you if they wish.

From all this I will expect and hope that when the time is appropriate there will be serious repercussions from what's happened in care homes. I think it will be something that isn't going to quietly go away.

It's one thing to be blindsided by the virus, but to actually enact policy that goes against warnings and is very very likely to have caused unnecessary death, is another thing altogether.

It's now 13th May and my old man's home still can't get tests for their residents. I'm pretty certain it was April 28th when Hancock announced they would be made available.

I'm not going to forget about it.
 

Nick74

Well-known Member
I've particularly appreciated your input on it Nick, naturally with my situation. And I've been following it all very closely myself. Just ignore best you can the ones who try to shut you down
Thanks.

While I could say considerably more on the subject, it wouldn't get us anywhere productive. In the end it's just a discussion on an internet forum that's highly unlikely to influence anything.

I'm not going to forget about it.
Nor should you.

I suspect you'll have a very long and difficult fight on your hands. I recall you stating that you're from Liverpool. You'll be more aware than most precisely what that means.

I hope your dad's care home is able to get the right response and action very soon. Whenever the government is questioned on specifics they revert to the general - we've conducted x number of tests and promised to allocate x number of pounds... The term slippery is far too kind.
 

EarthRod

Distinguished Member
From all this I will expect and hope that when the time is appropriate there will be serious repercussions from what's happened in care homes. I think it will be something that isn't going to quietly go away.

It's one thing to be blindsided by the virus, but to actually enact policy that goes against warnings and is very very likely to have caused unnecessary death, is another thing altogether.

It's now 13th May and my old man's home still can't get tests for their residents. I'm pretty certain it was April 28th when Hancock announced they would be made available.

I'm not going to forget about it.
Have to agree with that.

I have stood back and given the government a lot of leeway because this pandemic was new, unknown and even foxed the medical experts. Everybody was on a steep learning curve.

However, ignorance is no longer an excuse and it now seems the elderly are vulnerable to COVID-19 and the government.

Relatives will be angry and the threat of litigation is most likely to cause a few care homes and possibly nursing homes to declare bankruptcy and close, especially the smaller care homes.

The rollout of recent government policies is being noted and the method of execution is a warning to us all.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
So now it's June. I assume that's the 1st, not the 30th.

'Health Secretary Matt Hancock, giving the daily Downing Street briefing, has said all care home residents and staff with or without symptoms will be tested for coronavirus by June. He said there has been a "huge need to protect people in care homes" and added that the UK government has worked to do this "right from the start". This is something the government has been criticised for, as the epidemic in care homes continues.'

Seeing as it's a family friendly forum I'll keep most of my thoughts to myself with regards to the, "worked to do this right from the start" line.

Who falls for this crap.
 

Miss Mandy

Moderator
Rumours are circulating in my town that the local care home has been doing quite badly, apparently there have been 14 deaths in the home potentially related to the coronavirus. The home holds 38 residents. :(
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
I'm afraid there will be much more sad news to come with regards to care homes. And quite likely repercussions from relatives to.
 

damo09

Well-known Member
Don't want to be too brunt here..but a care home is probably the worst place you want to be in the present climate. Most if not all residents will have health issues.. and one near me has told mpst staff there will not be any resus on certain patients.

But of all this one thing that does bug me is the amount of crop the government are getting for not having the correct ppe. Now if this was a council funded place fair enough. But most care homes are privately owned.
 

Miss Mandy

Moderator
I'm afraid there will be much more sad news to come with regards to care homes. And quite likely repercussions from relatives to.
I think you're right.
It's come as quite a shock to some people too in the respect that many believed the town to have so far had no cases, but it seems that was wrong. Over the last couple of weeks people have been going out and about more, but the last couple of days have gone quieter again.

As regards PPE @damo09 I know they had a decent stock early on as some of it I donated myself from my work, things have been a struggle over the last couple of weeks though. They've been using the resources much quicker than anticipated at the same time as struggling to purchase more due to low stock availability and higher prices. Plus the usual red tape getting in the way. It all builds up to a perfect storm sadly.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
Rumours are circulating in my town that the local care home has been doing quite badly, apparently there have been 14 deaths in the home potentially related to the coronavirus. The home holds 38 residents. :(
I expect we'll be hearing some truly harrowing stories in the coming months from what's gone in care homes. PPE is an issue in care homes, but staffing levels is probably another big factor i.e. not enough staff to care for one resident to minimise the risk of spreading the infection.

My uncle has just tested positive for COVID-19, he has vascular dementia and likes to wonder. It's going to be difficult for them to keep him isolated. He's got a Do not resuscitate order, he almost died from a bad bout of the flu the other year. My Aunt decided it would be kinder to let him go in the event of serious ill health, rather than let him suffer.
 

Latest News

CES 2021 to go ahead 'in person'
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Philips 800 Series OLED TVs come to UK in July
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
AVForums Podcast: 31st May 2020
  • By Phil Hinton
  • Published
MQA expands global partnerships for high end experience
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Samsung 2020 TV app lineup upgraded
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Top Bottom