Their vote halved, that is significant.I don't think this will impact on the LDs at the election. They've been bobbing around 10%, give or take, for a few years, and I expect that's shat they'll get in 2015, unless something changes.
They'll be hit proportionally less badly than that figure suggests as their vote tends to be concentrated in particular areas.
I doubt very much that any if that remaining 10% core vote is going to UKIP. the big question is what UKIP are taking from the others, and if that vote will hold up in 2015.
Absolutely. I have been a tory voter for over 30 years. For the first time ever, last Thursday I voted for a different party.How different things could have been if one of the mainstream parties was anti-EU something that is probably needed on the continent more than ever now.
I'm sure if the lawyers worked on it they would conclude that he didn't 100% promise and therefore he hadn't reneged. But he made two commentsFactCheck: Did Blair promise Euro referendum? - Channel 4 News
Blair did not unambiguously say 'We will have an in/out referendum on EU membership', which is what we're talking about.
What you need is a political party which says "If we are elected we will ask the British public in a legally binding referendum whether or not they wish to remain part of the European Union".
Any 'promise' less than that it's probably unfair to hold them to.
Politicians react to events and situations change. But a clear manifesto commitment is something else.
The trouble is the press. If the Tories hold a referendum you'll get the usual suspects in favour if a pull out, but a pretty clean fight, and (I suspect) a vote to stay put. If it's anyone else there'll be a massive 'No' campaign and the party in charge blamed for the result.
Sorry, gone off topic a little.
And then in his 2005 manifesto, talking about the EU Constitution he wroteit should debate the European constitutional question in detail and decide upon it and then let the people have the final say
Whilst I don't doubt his highly paid legal team could pull those apart, they are very much weasel words that the electorate would read as a promise.We will put it [the constitution] to the British people in a referendum and campaign wholeheartedly for a Yes vote
They did...Whilst I don't doubt his highly paid legal team could pull those apart, they are very much weasel words that the electorate would read as a promise.
Unfortunately, Labour don't have to do anything. A lot of people will vote UKIP, it isn't just a protest vote as the other parties try to claim. But it won't be enough to do anything but dilute the Tory vote. I couldn't see the Tories getting in anyway as they have not had a popular term, but with the dilution it will be handed to Labour on a plate regardless of how rubbish their leader is.All 3 are still talking waffle even after the spanking, they really can not get it can they, they need to start taking the red pill over the blue that they have been taking for a while.
Has he given a cast iron guarantee?Cameron has offered it, but at the back end of the next term if he gets in. As far as I'm concerned he doesn't really want one - if he did he could have called one this term. I don't trust him and believe he would renege just like Blair did.
I think the LibRems had become used to promise whatever their voters would like to hear safe in the knowledge that they would never have to deliver them - LibDems in power was just not possible.Has he given a cast iron guarantee?
Cameron Flashback : “I Will Give This Cast-Iron Guarantee” - Guy Fawkes' blog
The Liberals also used to seem like the nice party as they could promise anything and didn't have to deliver. They promised EU referendums and backed tuition fees and now they are seen to be no different to anyone else.
The Liberal Democrats will never be forgiven for backing tuition fees - Telegraph