By 2025, all new vehicles will be electric

Stuart Wright

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Unfortunately not. Lorries and buses will most likely still be diesel
 
Given the lack of electric and alternative fuel cars being produced by the major manufacturers, the number of businesses connected with those and then big business and oil that would be bust in 7 years if the prediction was even accurate, it is not going to happen in the time frame in the OP. And I doubt it will ever get close in our lifetime, without major legislation changes which will be a huge vote loser and so, will not happen any time soon and certainly not in 7 years. You see how stubborn people are with beliefs and faith, it will be the same fight.
 
Unfortunately not. Lorries and buses will most likely still be diesel

2025 is too early I agree, but there are already electric trucks from the likes of Mercedes that came out this year and more manufacturers such as Volvo, Scania, MAN etc will follow suit.

It is coming. But I don't see all new vehicles being electric for probably at least 30 years. If the oil is still there manufacturers will still offer petrol and Diesel engines.
 
There are new oil rigs under construction destined for the North Sea and Shetlands. Oil isnt going nowhere for awhile. Although I agree service buses may very well be as they stay local to their depot and are easily recharged as they only used in short bursts. Lorries no. They can't be pulling over every few hours to recharge the industry would grind to a halt.
 
The Mercedes electric Truck has a range of 200km so as of today it's restricted to the urban delivery routes of which 200km is enough. With battery technology improving this range will only increase. If an electric truck battery can get to 500 miles in a single charge then it will be onto a winner.
 
Wagons can do potentially 560 miles in a day. They can be away from their base for up-to 5 days or if they are continental 2 weeks. Need a cracking support network to service all these charges
 
The Mercedes electric Truck has a range of 200km so as of today it's restricted to the urban delivery routes of which 200km is enough. With battery technology improving this range will only increase. If an electric truck battery can get to 500 miles in a single charge then it will be onto a winner.

And how are all these vehicles going to be re-charged?
 
I doubt it will ever get close in our lifetime
2025 is too early I agree
Did the video not convince you?
Need a cracking support network to service all these charges
Agree. Like the charge points which are already in all motorway service stations? We'd just need some in the lorry parks.

Bullet points from the video
  • EVs will be the same cost as ICE vehicles without government incentives
  • EVs will have near zero running costs (18 moving parts?!!!)
and from my own quick research
  • EVs are 1/10th of the cost to fuel

Set against the range and charging issues, I think it's something we can optimistically hope for.
I'm doing my bit. Pod Point being installed this month. Ioniq EV being delivered June and Audi diesel going on to Autotrader.

Also when the cost of insuring autonomous cars drops, the cost of insuring non-autonomous cars will go up. It may even be socially frowned upon to manually drive a car since it will be considered more dangerous.
Top UK motor insurers Admiral, Aviva and Direct Line form alliance to tackle autonomous cars
Car companies could become liable for damage caused by autonomous cars once road laws are updated in 2018, as proposed by the government in 2015. This would require vehicle manufacturers to take out insurance.
 
Did the video not convince you?

The video more focuses on cars. When you are talking about the haulage industry of which the UK has a huge one there is no chance at all that in just 8 years time all trucks sold will be electric. It is just not feasible nor will it happen as the battery range is not there. You can not have trucks parked up for a couple of hours being recharged whilst they are in the middle of their delivery run, it's not practical and would cost haulage companies a fortune in lost revenue.

It's taken years to get to Euro6 on trucks, which they only did because it was the law and it cost them a fortune, they aren't about to dump their massive investment in the Euro6 rating, if the oil is there they will continue to buy diesel trucks. I'm sure Euro7 is probably already being worked on behind the scenes.

And how are all these vehicles going to be re-charged?

They'd be charged overnight in the depot. The same as how they are currently refuelled.
A big haulier would have huge tanks of diesel and would be refilled when the trucks get back to base. Obviously continental journeys are different, but for UK only haulage if the battery technology comes on enough it could work, not for a long time mind you, but it could. For continental journeys truck parks could have charging stations.
 
Meanwhile, more coal, oil and nuclear power stations are built to provide the massive amount of extra electricity needed to power all the new electric vehicles.
 
Meanwhile, more coal, oil and nuclear power stations are built to provide the massive amount of extra electricity needed to power all the new electric vehicles.

That's right.

Also, safe disposal of a massive number of old, already recycled, batteries will be required. All that toxic material - can't dump them at sea or incinerate them or bury them in landfill.

In the future how will these already recycled batteries be disposed of in a environmentally friendly way?
 
The problem with electric cars is that technology moves so fast. It's the same as buying a new TV or graphics card or amp. By the time you've plugged it in, it's out of date. 2nd hand values won't be great, just like they aren't for regular gadgets. Give it 5 years and nobody will want them. I mean, who actively seeks out a 5 year old TV? Or a 5 year old mobile phone?
 
The problem with electric cars is that technology moves so fast. It's the same as buying a new TV or graphics card or amp. By the time you've plugged it in, it's out of date. 2nd hand values won't be great, just like they aren't for regular gadgets. Give it 5 years and nobody will want them. I mean, who actively seeks out a 5 year old TV? Or a 5 year old mobile phone?

It's bad enough now. Here's a Nissan Leaf example from the internet:

For sale: Nissan Leaf, 2016, £6,990 ono.

New: 2017, from £26,125
 
There are new oil rigs under construction destined for the North Sea and Shetlands. Oil isnt going nowhere for awhile.
Crude oil has numerous other uses than petrol:
plastics, textiles, fertilisers, heating to name but a few.
 
It's bad enough now. Here's a Nissan Leaf example from the internet:

For sale: Nissan Leaf, 2016, £6,990 ono.

New: 2017, from £26,125

Ouch, that is massive depreciation.
 
Ouch, that is massive depreciation.

Of course there is a government refund on the new purchase price and no doubt Nissan will throw in a discount.

But the government incentive could change or be discontinued in the future.

It's still a big depreciation. But that is only one car. Maybe the Tesla holds it's value.
 
Crude oil has numerous other uses than petrol:
plastics, textiles, fertilisers, heating to name but a few.

Yup but there is a greater demand for the smaller hydrocarbons that's why we use cracking as a method of breaking up the larger molecules.
 
In the future how will these already recycled batteries be disposed of in a environmentally friendly way?
They will be recycled.
How are Batteries recycled?

The problem with electric cars is that technology moves so fast. It's the same as buying a new TV or graphics card or amp. By the time you've plugged it in, it's out of date. 2nd hand values won't be great, just like they aren't for regular gadgets. Give it 5 years and nobody will want them. I mean, who actively seeks out a 5 year old TV? Or a 5 year old mobile phone?
Right. That *is* a problem and something which I considered carefully before placing the order for our Ioniq. However, it *is* just the batteries which advance so quickly that EVs have poorer residual value compared to other parts of the car. Moore's Law doesn't apply to Lithium Ion batteries as their development is slower. The only silver lining is that car makers might start offering replacement batteries, though this seems somewhat unlikely.
So it seems that EV owners are paying the price of being early adopters. However, think about the residual value of diesel vehicles if they start being banned in more cities.
Four major cities move to ban diesel vehicles by 2025 - BBC News
Of course there is a government refund on the new purchase price and no doubt Nissan will throw in a discount.
Yup, £4,500 on an all EV and the tax is nil also.
But the government incentive could change or be discontinued in the future.
It definitely will do once EV sales grow large enough. According to the above video, even without the incentive, EVs will be as cheap to buy as ICE cars by 2020. By 2022 the low end (cheapest) cars will be EV.

With the government incentive and dealer discount our Ioniq Premium SE is £23,500.
I think that's pretty good for 125 mile range and things like
  • Driver's Seat Lumbar Support (Electric)
  • Driver's Seat Memory Function
  • Door Mirror Puddle Lights
  • Cruise Control - Smart Adaptive Speed Control with Stop and Go Function
  • Parking Sensors - Front and Rear
  • Parking System - Rear Camera and Guidance System
  • Driver's Supervision Instrument Cluster with TFT Display (7")
  • Phone Connection - Android Auto
  • Phone Connection - Apple CarPlay
  • Autonomous Emergency Braking (AEB)
  • Blind Spot Detection System (BSD)
  • Hill-start Assist Control (HAC)
  • Lane Departure Warning System with Lane Keep Assist
  • Rear Cross Traffic Alert (RCTA)
  • Smart Key - Keyless Entry with Engine Start/Stop Button
  • Tyre Pressure Monitoring System (TPMS) with Individual Tyre Pressure Display

This is the one I test drove

I know that Hyundai are bringing out a new, longer range EV next year which might hit the residual value of the Ioniq, but you have to take the plunge at some point.
 

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Earlier diesel vehicles will also see their resale values hit in the next few years, but people will have had their monies worth. We're talking about Euro 3 and below diesels, which are kinda pre-2000 cars and that is a good thing. Personally, i feel they should be scrapping also Euro 4 and earlier.

Anyway, Tesla and the rest are all about the technology onboard. What about cost of repairs? How much does that huge centre screen cost to replace once the Tesla warranty has expired?
 
Never going to happen, not in our lifetime.

I know you have just got a lovely a Mustang but having owned some great combustion cars in the past including a Integra Type R, Peugeot 106, 350Z, and tuned a BMW 335i to 400bhp I speak from direct personal experience when I say the internal combustion engine will be consigned to 'hobby' status much like horse riding is before my 1 year old daughter is old enough to drive.

In 1915 there was 26 million horses in the US, by 1935 it was down to 16 million, and now 3 million. I would bet many in 1915 also thought the motorcar would never take over from the horse.

I've now covered 1200 miles in our Model X in 3 weeks. Our X is the slowest version Tesla does but it still combines the ability to carry 6 people in comfort with real world speed that makes many of my old cars feel slow - which is some achievement for a 2.5 ton SUV, no range anxiety unlike my previous Leaf, and costed no more than the equivalent Ranger Rover or Audi Q7. The X is by far the best car I have ever driven or owned by some margin, I simply cannot think of any other car I rather own regardless of price, it is that good.....oh my fuel costs for 1200 miles, about £30 if I round up, that'll probably get you about 150 miles worth of petrol in an equivalent SUV with similar performance:).

Change is coming and much quicker than people think, the amount of random passerbys who have asked me about the X is amazing. The universal conclusion is 'I want one', the only real barrier at present is price, which with the imment arrival of th Model 3, next gen Leaf will remove that barrier.

33771420302_07ba0592b7_z_d.jpg
 
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