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Blu-ray to win according to forrester analyst

Discussion in 'TVs' started by scarty16, Oct 21, 2005.

  1. scarty16

    scarty16
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    Sony's Blu-ray format for next-generation DVD drives will win over Toshiba's rival HD DVD format, analyst firm Forrester predicted Wednesday--but it won't be a quick victory.

    "After a long and tedious run-up to the launch, it is now clear to Forrester that the Sony-led Blu-ray format will win," Ted Schadler, a Forrester analyst, said in a report. "But unless the HD DVD group abandons the field, it will be another two years before consumers are confident enough of the winner to think about buying a new-format DVD player."

    Also on Wednesday, Blu-ray backer Hewlett-Packard said it has appealed to the group to incorporate two HD DVD features: mandatory "managed copy," which will mean consumers will always be allowed to copy movies to their computers' hard drives, and iHD, a Microsoft-designed technology for interactive features.

    But Blu-ray has several advantages that will help it win the day, Schadler said. HD DVD is a one-trick pony for video playback, but Blu-ray is also designed for games and computers, he said. Indeed, its inclusion in millions of Sony's next-generation video game consoles is a factor. And when former HD DVD loyalist Paramount endorsed Blu-ray, it shifted the movie studio momentum. Finally, although Blu-ray manufacturing will cost a little more initially, it offers more capacity and employs a proven technology, Java, for interactive features.

    But unless the HD DVD camp throws in the towel--a move Schadler recommended--the victory will be slow in coming. "Consumers will postpone a decision until the winner is obvious. The war between Betamax and VHS trained a generation of consumers to be wary of competing formats. Many consumers were caught with an expensive device that couldn't play the movies available at the video store," Schadler said.

    Also slowing things down: The image quality of today's DVD is good enough that most people won't be itching to switch until high-definition TV is much more widespread.

    The arrival of powerful networks has added a new twist to the situation, Schadler said. "The irony of this format war is that it comes at the tail end of the century-long era of physical media." Increasingly, people order movies on demand or watch Internet video.

    Previous Next In the computing industry, Schadler's prediction doesn't bode well for Intel and Microsoft, which allied themselves with HD DVD in September. Days after, Intel's two main PC chip customers, Dell and HP, reaffirmed their Blu-ray commitment.

    Based on discussions with Panasonic, which has a pilot Blu-ray manufacturing plant in Torrance, Calif., Schadler believes HD DVDs will be only "pennies per disc" cheaper to build once Blu-ray manufacturing hits full speed.

    Technologies such as Intel's forthcoming Viiv and Microsoft's Media Center help put PCs at the center of consumers' electronic entertainment gear, so it's no surprise the companies want the managed copy feature required by HD DVD. But studios are likely to prefer Blu-ray because it "allows...a higher level of copy protection," Schadler said.
     
  2. sooperscoop

    sooperscoop
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    I think it's been clear for some time that Blu-Ray has been getting the upper hand.

    It's easy to see why - the content producers like Sony, they're 'one of them' and therefore understand the all consuming need for watertight DRM uber alles. Why go HD-DVD with a bunch of techy hardware manufacturers who have in the past shown willing to subvert DRM (DVD region free codes, DIVX playback).

    DRM = more sales = more control = more money.

    Unfortunately, they've climbed into bed with the devil on a short rollercoater to doom. Things are moving on. Consumers want more than sticking a shiny disc in a machine, maybe not so much at the moment, but in 10, 15 years? We want streaming over wireless networks, multi-gigabyte downloads, portable devices with hours of TV/movies. Will restrictive DRM allow this? Not easily, and you can bet not cheaply if they have anything to do with it. The Blu-Ray consortium are ramming consumers into their business model, not reshaping their model to meet present and future consumer needs.

    And don't even get me started about online verification of content. Sure, it's the best way to tighten DRM, but such a pain in the arse for us. And who wants to bet that disc verification info isn't the only thing going down your phoneline to content providers?
     
  3. jedi-jae

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    Warner Bros, as expected have now confirmed support for Blu-Ray
     
  4. Jeff

    Jeff
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    The above tells me he doesn't have a clue what he is talking about.
     
  5. danvitale

    danvitale
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    I was under the impression that it was the other way around, that BR-DVD was not as good a media solution for PCs than HD-DVD is...
     
  6. Badger0-0

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    Very good points :smashin:

    It's an interesting one, this.
    Blu-ray will be the one for content providers, agreed.
    But I reckon it might boil down to what China ends up knocking out.
    After all, they are the biggest source of 'techy hardware manufacturers' that you mention. If the Chinese decide that DRM sucks (and lets face it, they don't respect copyright at all) and start banging out HD-DVD, we all know who will win price-wise. In other words, what starts off as a content provider-led thing, may well turn into a consumer driven thing.
    This will run and run, IMO and the two years mentioned will be much longer unless they start banging out both formats in one machine, which is what I reckon will happen.
     
  7. chambeaj

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    Introducing two imcompatible formats onto the market next year is a recipe for disaster imho. You can see the headlines already!!

    And you can bet your life that most makes of first generation players (the exception perhaps being Samsung) will only play one standard.

    Ultimately one of the formats has to fail - and the sooner the better imho
     
  8. Badger0-0

    Badger0-0
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    Probably right, but dual format will follow, IMO.
    And if one fails, I hope it's BR ;)
     
  9. rogeralpine

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    ....are MS supporting HDDVD?
     
  10. Stephen Neal

    Stephen Neal
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    MS are nominally supporting HD-DVD, but are not that in favour of either it seems. According to a post on Slashdot, linked to via Engadget I think, Bill has said the future is hard drive storage, not optical.

    HD-DVD supports "managed copy" at the moment - whilst BluRay can support it, but may not. HP, who were/are in the BluRay camp, want Managed Copy - as it is in the interest of PC manufacturers who want to be able to add value in their Media Center PCs by allowing authorised storage of multiple movies on hard drives.
     
  11. brain_stew

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    Any player that requires an internet connection and could theroretically be remotley disabled is not getting my money. I'm sure these anal DRM restrictions will be the downfall of Bluray, add that to the fact that a format war will put off purchases and the fact that neither offering many advantages (if any) to the average consumer and i can see both flopping. I honestly think tht DVD will remain the choice of the mainstream and that these new discs will only ever be niche products.
     
  12. danvitale

    danvitale
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    The "Anal" DRM is what is attracting the Movie companies to BluRay, and if HD-DVD makes the silly mistake of disregarding Superscoop's "DRM = more sales = more control = more money" theory, then they wont have any film companies back them.

    Film companies backing makes the format. And If they back BluRay, Bluray will be the primary movie format in a few years time. And if you dont think that, just ask yourself why you dont see many VHS releases of the latest movies to hit DVD?
     
  13. Tojal City

    Tojal City
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    I truly believe that the winging format will not be the one with the biggest movie collection, but the one that recording, multi-format, multi-functions, hacking and price will be a mandatory. If none of them provides this, in that case none of them will win and people will prefer to see their movies in standard definition, be in Divx or in DVD.
    DRM will be a flop, no matter what the studios and the hardware companies try, people hate this crap, and people will prefer to see pirate versions or bad-definition versions of their films, before connecting to the net to see a movie.
     

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