Blu-ray to overtake DVD in two years predicts Disney, Europe to trail US

[Phil Hinton]

The problem with downloads is that it needs to have some kind of base in the living room, which it certainly doesn't have at the moment. If you are talking about direct downloads using a PC. I do however see features like pay per view and anytime HD expanding to offer this type of service in the near future, where you can pick what you want to watch, when you want to watch it, and in HD. It will require an interface to work over the existing HDD space used at the moment on set top boxes. Actually downloading from the net I don't see as being that big, certainly not in the next 10-15 years.

BD and DVD will co-exist for at least the next 5-10 years with BD eventually being the format of choice so I don't think people have to panic about not being able to collect them, for at least the next 5 years or so. As Lyris suggested and as I mentioned in my earlier post, everyone in the industry -bar Toshiba- have clear road maps showing BD as one of the major technologies being pushed, from stand alone to computers and mini systems. It is here for some time to come in the future. That includes every major studio.

The only thing I see that will threaten BD is some kind of portable media file where you can download or upload HD movies to it. Maybe go in to HMV, pop your memory stick in a machine and select your film and off you go.

There is the other side of the coin we have to mention here as well and thats SD movies or movies available in severly compressed formats for download to devices like the iPod. Look what happened with CD recently, with kids not bothered by quality. It might see a boom in this type of delivery for this market, but I think its safe to presume that it will not impact on HD discs or other HD devices.

 

[Sonic67]

It might be the case that when kids grow older they might buy. When I was a kid my dad had records but I taped my mates collections usually. Simple lack of funds. Once I was older I bought more LPs as I could afford to.

Maybe kids are using MP3's like we used tapes but will buy CDs when they have the money for a large collection.

Aside from that most MP3 players contain the users own music collection not downloads.

I can't see music downloads killing off CDs. They are both running happily alongside one another now. In the future music downloads might grow further at the expense of CD but I can't see it being killed off entirely. CDs still haven't killed off vinyl yet.

 

[Pecker]

It might be the case that when kids grow older they might buy. When I was a kid my dad had records but I taped my mates collections usually. Simple lack of funds. Once I was older I bought more LPs as I could afford to.

Maybe kids are using MP3's like we used tapes but will buy CDs when they have the money for a large collection.

Aside from that most MP3 players contain the users own music collection not downloads.

I can't see music downloads killing off CDs. They are both running happily alongside one another now. In the future music downloads might grow further at the expense of CD but I can't see it being killed off entirely. CDs still haven't killed off vinyl yet.

Aye. MP3s have always been quick and easy. They've been legally available for a decade, and far cheaper than a physical CD, and without any of the downloading problems of high def video (it's never taken too long to download an mp3).

But downloads are still a million miles from killing off the CD.

Steve W

 

[BISHI]

Wait and see how next gen upscalers perform.... no one is gonna update years worth of dvd collecting to Bluray if Toshibas little box of tricks can make an existing collection look brand spanking hi def !!!!

 

[Greg Hook]

Wait and see how next gen upscalers perform.... no one is gonna update years worth of dvd collecting to Bluray if Toshibas little box of tricks can make an existing collection look brand spanking hi def !!!!

Wouldn't hold your breath.

I have no doubt that whatever super upscaling tricks Toshiba come out with is going to look anything like a good quality Blu-ray disc.

It may satisfy the casual fans out there who can't warrant going the blu-ray route and can't tell the difference between upscaled and blu-ray anyway, but I can't see a lot of people on here jumping to buy one.

 

[Pecker]

Wouldn't hold your breath.

I have no doubt that whatever super upscaling tricks Toshiba come out with is going to look anything like a good quality Blu-ray disc.

It may satisfy the casual fans out there who can't warrant going the blu-ray route and can't tell the difference between upscaled and blu-ray anyway, but I can't see a lot of people on here jumping to buy one.(emphasis mine)

The problem is, of course, that "...the casual fans..." are 99% of the market, whilst "...a lot of people on here..." only really have any impact when technology is first taking off.

Blu-ray Disc won't overtake upscaled SD DVD because "we" can tell the difference - it's dependent on 32" LCD From Comet Man.

Steve W

 

[Greg Hook]

The problem is, of course, that "...the casual fans..." are 99% of the market, whilst "...a lot of people on here..." only really have any impact when technology is first taking off.

Blu-ray Disc won't overtake upscaled SD DVD because "we" can tell the difference - it's dependent on 32" LCD From Comet Man.

Steve W

Ah yes, I had not factored '32" LCD from Comet Man connected by Scart'

 

[Sonic67]

Some blu-ray players aren't that much different in price to Toshibas upscaler. You might as well get the real thing. I've been wondering about getting one for the bedroom.

 

[Pecker]

Ah yes, I had not factored '32" LCD from Comet Man connected by Scart'

Connected by SCART, set to Composite.

Steve W

 

[STdrez625]

Digital downloads are already a competitor to BD tho, and they're much cheaper!. ALso a lot of films which may not be available in your region are there to download.. All you have to do is go to this site
torrentfilms.com

Films on memory chips, soon they will be as cheap as discs and as capacious.. but 20x more robust (20gb memory card)

 

[David Mackenzie]

Wait and see how next gen upscalers perform.... no one is gonna update years worth of dvd collecting to Bluray if Toshibas little box of tricks can make an existing collection look brand spanking hi def !!!!

Basically impossible for 99% of DVD titles; the pre-filtering done on 99% of them totally removes high frequency information, an upscaler can't reconstruct this. All it can do is scale and do subjectively better (or worse) "enhancements" to the image.

Unfiltered DVDs made from great master tapes can look very close to HD on a 40" TV, provided you're sitting back a little. But nobody would be fooled on larger displays or projection setups.

 

[TeggDon]

There is still a minority of people who go to Asda to buy their 1080p dvd player. Then go say thats Blu ray quality there...

 

[mudhutts]

Downloads sound great, but once you've been bitten and lost data, whether that be music, photos, whatever, you end up backing everything up multiple times anyhow.

I'm much more comfortable with packaged media for long term storage, and downloads for short term rentals.

 

[rovex33]

DVD didnt need a new TV, BR requires an HDTV to be worth while. Most people still have SD TVs and as such BR isnt as cheap a change as DVD was.

The PC is still the best upscaler, i doubt Toshibas Cell based upscaler (that is a lot less powerful than a PC GPU), will be any better. As good as upscalers are, they arent a match for real HD.

 

[robfosters]

Most people still have SD TVs.

Maybe, but the ratio is closing fast. I reckon the ratio of people changing from vhs to dvd had a longer timescale than SDTV to HDTV. I am actually struggling to remember the last house I went into that did'nt have a HDTV. They're everywhere now.

Take the PS3, in Jan, there was over 1.4million sold. God knows how many since then. Every household with a Ps3 surely owns a HDTV.

 

[Steven]

Japan is always a generation ahead here... their mobile phones are better than our TVs! (tongue > cheek)

 

[xit2050]

I am actually struggling to remember the last house I went into that did'nt have a HDTV. They're everywhere now.

Two possibilities:
A. Everyone's house you've been into is an AV freak.
B. The UK is light years ahead of the continent.

I know for a fact that B. cannot be the right answer.

 

[Greg Hook]

Take the PS3, in Jan, there was over 1.4million sold. God knows how many since then. Every household with a Ps3 surely owns a HDTV.

That may be true in Japan, but I would bet it wasn't like that in the UK. I wonder how many PS3s are connected by scart/composite etc to crappy old Tvs in some 10 year olds bedroom? I know of at least one personally that is.

 

[domtheone]

That may be true in Japan, but I would bet it wasn't like that in the UK. I wonder how many PS3s are connected by scart/composite etc to crappy old Tvs in some 10 year olds bedroom? I know of at least one personally that is.

I would wager that at least 10% of PS3's are connected up to some portable/CRT screen via Scart/Composite.

 

[mudhutts]

You really have to go out of your way to pick up a non HDTV of any size above 24-26in.

A few years back people were buying them for asthetic reasons, but I think that's changing.

Driving around I've seen billboards for Sky HD, and cleverly they now brand it as Sky+ HD, building on that well known and popular technology/service, rather than trying to push Sky HD as something completely seperate.

The pennies begining to drop that you need an HD source.

 

[rovex33]

True it is hard to buy a CRT or other non HD TV these days thats not small unit for bedrooms, but not everyone changes their TV every 2 years, or even every 5 or 10, especially now with money as it is.
BR is pointless on a TV much under 32 inches, unless you sit quite close. I know a few people with PS3s that dont buy BR movies because they cant see the difference.
I sit about 7-8 feet from my 37 inch TV and can see it, but my firend has a 32inch screen and sits about 12 feet from it, you really cant see much benefit.

 

[catcher]

Blu-ray does not have the advantage over DVD that DVD had over VHS.

DVD was a revolutionary change for many households, it was not just the convenience of not having to rewind etc… but the addition of special features (commentary and alternate endings in particular), in addition to the superior quality on DVD (picture and sound), and smaller form factor.

The main disadvantage of DVD, was that if it replaced the VHS player rather than compliment it, then many households would lose the ability to record from their television sets (DVD came before SKY+ and Tivo), and DVD players had no backward compatibility with VHS. I was still using VHS to record television until I got Sky+ (for example).

Blu-ray is not instantly as revolutionary as DVD, the picture quality is certainly far superior, as well as the sound quality, but this is a forum of AV enthusiasts, we truly appreciate the difference, not everyone is like that. Not everyone agonises over which component lead to use to connect their system (which they painstakingly researched prior to purchasing). A lot of people will walk into their local Currys or Comet, and buy whatever the salesperson throws at them, and many will order out of a catalogue without even seeing the set in the flesh. These are the average user, and many of them will not spend £15-20 to purchase a BD of something they already have on DVD. We will see how much better the additional extras can be on BD, maybe with wi-fi connections people can engage movie discussions, Q and A sessions with cast and crew….we'll see (and lets be honest, most users never bother with the special features even on a DVD).

Initially, my Mrs questioned my judgment of buying a Blu-ray player, as she thought upscaled DVDs looked more than good enough. So for now, BD is certainly an enthusiasts medium, however, this will change. BD players have backward compatibility, so there is no need to throw out your DVD collection, in fact I will probably only replace a few of my DVDs with BD versions (until BD prices really drop).

As the world moves toward High Def, with most new TVs being sold being HDTV ready, and as Sky HD starts getting a bigger share, and players get ever cheaper, people will start moving toward BD. I for one, will not pay £14 to get the latest DVD when I can buy a superior version for a little more.

The key thing, is that BD is not in competition with DVD, this is not a format war, music cassettes lasted for a long time alongside CDs and it did take an age before they slowly died- which also coincided with the rise of car CD players and the ability to burn your own CDs (The superior quality and convenience of CDs did not initially have that much of an impact).

DVDs will also stand next to BD for a long time to come, until the £50 BD players are in Tesco, and people slowly stop bothering to pay the same money for a lesser product.

This is all going to take some years, but at this point in BD's lifecycle, it is already more mainstream that CDs or DVDs were.

Maybe this is partly down to the internet, partly down to higher demands by consumers, but I can see a lot of high street interest in BD within the next 2 years – but it will take much longer before DVD goes the way of the music cassette.

 

[andrew markwort]

Jessen adds that he believes take off for BD in Europe will be slower than the US, with the format taking ‘three to four years to become successful.'

And of course regional encoding, where House of Mouse is one of the key practitioners of this retrograde practice, will have nothing to do with this.

Having said this, Blu Ray will eventually win through, for the simple reason that you can still play SD DVDs on Blu Ray players, so there's no disincentive to buy when you're shopping for a new player, and as Blu Ray comes down in price (and the forthcoming recession will help in this) it will move beyond being something for the hard core fanatics and will appeal first to the relatively techno savvy before going mass market. This is exactly what happened with DVDs and before that, with VHS, for those old enough to remember those primitive technologies.