Blu-ray to overtake DVD in two years predicts Disney, Europe to trail US

[jayden28]

Do you remember what DVDs cost at this point in its lifetime?

no,but at the end of the day the average joe will decide if blu ray wins and if there are like my brother and my missus then dvd will win because its cheaper and they cant tell the difference between the 2 in terms of pq quality.

 

[senu]

The problem with Bluray is that the initial format wars and high cost of hardware set the seeds for what is happening now
Unlike DVD vs VHS, DVD was considered the format to oust VHS , Only its ability to record prolonged its life
BDs problem is that Joe Public does not consider the quality difference to be so much as to make it a "must have".
In fact even now the arent that well known and where ther are considered a bit of a luxury and marketing gimmick " Nothing wrong with DVD" and to be fair you can get decent DVD disc for £3-5 at Tescos , and grab a player for £19 on your way out

Only yesterday I was speaking to the mother of one of Paramounts UK marketing team. Very articulate Lady but had never heard of BluRay herself
..One of the formatof movie delivery her daughter was invovled in

I actually dont know any one with a BD player .. the few I know who play them use a PS3 and are qute happy to go to Blockbusters to rent raher than buy
My nephew ( does have over 150 titles but even then he uses the PS3) and never gets his from UK retail outlets

 

[David Mackenzie]

Unlike DVD vs VHS, DVD was considered the format to oust VHS , Only its ability to record prolonged its life
BDs problem is that Joe Public does not consider the quality difference to be so much as to make it a "must have".

Do you think 100% of DVD owners did it for the quality, though? I thought it'd be a case of it getting cheap enough, being the thing to have, and admittedly, offering random access.

 

[nheather]

Do you think 100% of DVD owners did it for the quality, though?

Pretty close in my opinion. Yes there was also the simplicity and the compactness but I remember the quality difference when I first saw DVD as 'light and day'.

With HD I can certainly see a difference, but when I sit back 10' from my plasma it isn't that stunning.

Certainly not enough to convince me to invest. The hardware price I can justify - it's paying £15 to £20 for disks when I can get the same DVDs between £3 to £10.

Cheers,

Nigel

 

[Pecker]

£100 might be a good price for a second player (bedroom, etc).

Steve W

 

[LicensedTaximan]

Personally speaking I feel that any disc format, no matter how hi def, is probably a bit of a stop gap untill high quality downloading including the soundtrack, is well and truly up and running.

Lets face it cd's and dvd's were revolutionary (from audio tape cassettes and vhs) and upping the ant'e to higher quality but still via a disc is more evolutionary, you are still using up valuable home space.
But what would be revolutionary is to download onto a version of sd card or memory stick etc etc, and have storage space kept to an absolute minimum.

Just think of it hundreds of films to own in high def but on little storage mediums with no moving parts taking up hardly any space at home, it will eventually happen.

Remember we had a stylus physicaly touching your LP's as opposed to a laser beam reading via a light. Ok, ok I know some people will argue the analogue vs digital debate....but.

 

[vader100]

While our ancient telephone line system is in the state it is and we are still restricted to usage limits downloads will never take over from physical media (IMHO!).

 

[robfosters]

No chance. part of the fun of a blu-ray or dvd collection is the physical medium itself. I love having a shelf full of nice new blu-rays. Besides, I just cannot see downloads ever being 'allowed' to take over. Way too many jobs and taxes would be lost if dvd's and blu'rays came to an end. Think of all the factory workers, warehouses and thousands (probably millions) of shops around the world.

 

[LicensedTaximan]

Oh well I got shot down in flames then, nice thought though.

 

[Phil Hinton]

Oh well I got shot down in flames then, nice thought though.

Your actually not that far from the truth. Blu-ray will be the last optical format that is ever made, Fact. They cannot develop the laser technology any further than what they have now, you can only have data pits so small and then thats it. There might be further physical formats that are not optically based, such as memory cards and so on. But ultimately the delivery system for future video formats will not be on a disc. As for downloading, it will have its place in the near future, possibly delivered by some major companies like Sky, BT or Virgin. I can see HD on demand becoming very big as the services we have now like Anytime are expanded. Actual downloads over the net will take at least another 10 years to get fully up to scratch and may not be as successful as a system that is already in the living room like Sky or cable.

As for BD becoming more popular than DVD, probably will as player prices fall and more people want to use their HDTVs to the full. Watch places like Currys sell packages this Xmas of HDTVs and BD players and once they get some volume moving (if there is any economy left) prices for mass market BD player will fall. Looking at trade shows like IFA, it is clear that almost all the majors (bar Tosh) have BD firmly in their road maps for Q4 and early next year.

 

[Docta teef]

No chance. part of the fun of a blu-ray or dvd collection is the physical medium itself. I love having a shelf full of nice new blu-rays. Besides, I just cannot see downloads ever being 'allowed' to take over. Way too many jobs and taxes would be lost if dvd's and blu'rays came to an end. Think of all the factory workers, warehouses and thousands (probably millions) of shops around the world.

Though i agree i bet your over 30. I think theres an age related mental block about having to own the physical disc thats why i dont use iTune or any of that ilk. Having said that i have uploaded all my DVD's onto an HTPC and shoved the discs in the atic but its still a case of i know they re there if i need them,with downloads click a wrong button and it could be gone, still if the yoof's accept downloads then thats the way it will probably go.

 

[David Mackenzie]

Personally speaking I feel that any disc format, no matter how hi def, is probably a bit of a stop gap untill high quality downloading including the soundtrack, is well and truly up and running.

Everyone is saying that (I'm not sure who started it?), but I don't understand why. It's not like iTunes which was great because you could legally download the few tracks of an album you wanted, it's full-blown feature length films, which people either like to rent (in which case downloads would be ideal) or collect (in which case they certainly would not).

People like to own the physical product when they feel it is worth something (that doesn't count CD albums which got a reputation for being mainly filler).

Christmas Morning, 2040:
"Wow, thanks mum and dad! It's a serial number to download Finding Nemo! This is the best [virtual] gift ever."

Though i agree i bet your over 30. I think theres an age related mental block about having to own the physical disc thats why i dont use iTune or any of that ilk.

I'm only 21 and have the same thing. If I download something (paid or not), I forget it's there. It just doesn't seem real.

I seem to be in the minority because a lot of my friends have portable hard disks filled up with downloaded TV shows. That doesn't, to me, mean that they'd do the same for movies. Those TV shows are free downloads recorded from US broadcasts; the issue is that they can't see them here (or if they could, they don't want to have to plan their life around broadcasters' schedules). These people also have stacks and stacks of DVDs and CDs, because they like to own something.

 

[Pecker]

Personally speaking I feel that any disc format, no matter how hi def, is probably a bit of a stop gap untill high quality downloading including the soundtrack, is well and truly up and running.

Lets face it cd's and dvd's were revolutionary (from audio tape cassettes and vhs) and upping the ant'e to higher quality but still via a disc is more evolutionary, your still using up valuable home space.
But what would be revolutionary is to download onto a version of sd card or memory stick etc etc, and have storage space kept to an absolute minimum.

Just think of it hundreds of films to own in high def but on little storage mediums with no moving parts taking up hardly any space at home, it will eventually happen.

Remember we had a stylus physicaly touching your LP's as opposed to a laser beam reading via a light. Ok, ok I know some people will argue the analogue vs digital debate....but.

Yes, but SD DVD is only 10 years old.

For BD not to 'succeed' because of downloads, the latter would have to be the de facto standard within a decade, and I don't think that's going to be possible.

Steve W

 

[robfosters]

I'm actually 28, so nearly there. But I have personally felt like this since I was about 20 and music downloads started to appear.

If downloads start to take over physical medium, then I for one, will be sad. Sad for me and sad for all the people, who as I said before, will lose their jobs.

They may not be able to advance the laser technology, but something else will be invented. Technological advancement never ceases. Something else will arrive.

 

[David Mackenzie]

Yeah, I don't see why some sort of memory card would be a problem. Or some other disc where the data is read with another technology?

Right now, BD movies that have actually been mastered/encoded properly are putting a huge smile on my face, so I'm not hugely interested in what's going to happen in the decades ahead. Just so long as it's a real format and not a virtual file.

 

[LicensedTaximan]

I take on board a lot of what has been said, and although my comments regarding downloading may be somewhat premature, I agree with Phil that this latest technology (BD) will, probably, be the last physicaly moving media that carries picture and sound (cd also for music).
To have this commodity on some kind of sd card / memory type stick (chip) is probably (here's that word again) the way foreward and therefore no moving parts. Once again what a space saver.

By the way I take on board the pride of ownership comments, with all that one can read on the web it's still lovely to own, feel and read a good quality hardback, especially if it's about hi-fi, home cinema, films and music. Ooh I do like a bit of tactile.

 

[Rasczak]

It's interesting to see people comment that they think the future is either Blu-ray or downloads. Cannot it not be both? Despite the popularity of music downloads there is still a busy trade in CDs especially albums. Personally I still buy CDs even though I rip them straight to my PC so I can either stream to my home cinema, multi-room setups or play on my Creative Zen. I just prefer a physical package and it means I can choose how I want to encode my tracks.

Blu-ray is even better placed than CDs to take on digital downloads. The format will support 'managed copy' which, when devices allow, will enable individuals to put there BD on a central server and stream as required. There will be more limitations but then there will be DRM on digital downloads as well. So if anything Blu-ray is incredibly well placed to share a future with digital downloads.

As for the general success of Blu-ray though I am not quite so optimisic as some. I think the format will continue to grow as players and discs get cheaper. But I suspect it will not be at the rate the studios wish - it will be a slow gradual process and thus studio support for the format could ultimately wane. Personally I think Blu-ray is great - but it will have a hard time persuading the average joe to pay a premium. If we look back to DVD what factors did that format offer over VHS?
- Improved PQ/AQ (for those with the kit to appreciate it)
- CD style access
- Less clunky
- Extras
...what does BD offer? Well improved PQ/AQ of course - again for those with the kit to appreciate it. But other than that what improvement? Potentially a wider variety of extras - will that sell discs? Depends if they can get a 'killer' feature associated with BD Live. But I just don't see a hook to entice the average person to invest.

Of course I could be wrong. Personally I am just happy enjoying the format!

 

[Greg Hook]

For the first time ever, my local Tesco has now started selling blu-rays. They have a whole display of them next to the standard DVDs. Crazy prices though ranging from £17 for Transformers to £23.49 for some crappy film I can't remember the name of. A few seemed to have been sold aswell by the looks of the empty spaces.

 

[Marky P]

Oh well I got shot down in flames then, nice thought though.

I think that in the rental market, downloads will eventually be the norm. But the collectors (like me) will prefer physical product lined up on shelves spanning entire walls.

 

[LicensedTaximan]

But the collectors (like me) will prefer physical product lined up on shelves spanning entire walls.

I like collecting, and have a goodly collection of dvd's as well as cd's, too many according to wifey, but entire walls!!!....eeek. perleese.

I do like a nice house where I can see some of the walls.

 

[Dan81]

Some thoughts on this...

Hi def downloads may be the future but the disc has a lot of life in it yet.

I like owning a physical format - something I can see and collect. Ridiculous as it may be the box and cover art are important to me. Maybe film covers aren't as iconic as music album art but it will take a looong time for many to accept forking out for a format you cant hold, collect on a shelf, place on a coffee table.

Each younger generation seems less bothered about owning a physical format and prefer something that can be easily transferred between various devices.

I am sure the Disney fellas comments are backed by research and forecasting not just from from thin air. 2 years seems quite realistic to me...

Once players are cheap and sold in Asda people will choose a £10-14 BD over a £3-7 DVD. No-one likes the idea of buying into 'old technology'

 

[David Mackenzie]

it will take a looong time for many to accept forking out for a format you cant hold, collect on a shelf, place on a coffee table.

And lend to their friends, give as a gift, and take to other people's houses. The ultimate impracticality of downloading movies replacing physical media is why I get so irritated when writers keep parroting the idea.

If young people do like something that can be easily transferred between devices, that certainly rules out downloadable movies - at least just now!

I am sure the Disney fellas comments are backed by research and forecasting not just from from thin air. 2 years seems quite realistic to me...

Yeah; the people I spoke to from Fox also assured me that all of the research they've had commissioned agreed that optical disc is going nowhere.

 

[robfosters]

Ridiculous as it may be the box and cover art are important to me. '

Not ridiculous at all. I feel exactly the same. Some blu-rays, like the new batman from play, come with nice little extras like artwork cards, which I like.
And I would be very suprised if actual disc extras like making ofs, deleted scenes and all that would be included in download. It's a product that you feel in your hand and you can actually look at and resell if you wish.

And the main thing, reliability. It would be a long time before I was to part with £15 for a film via download. And as for rentals. Now you rent a film, it dont work, take it back, get another one. With downloads, it might not be the download, but your machine. So you would have to go through all manner of things, such as system specs, connection, video card drivers and god knows what else. Anyone else gone through the palava of getting itunes to let you redownload music if your HD crashes? No sorry, dont think it would work personally. Downloads for music, fine, not for films.

 

[Sonic67]

It's interesting to see people comment that they think the future is either Blu-ray or downloads. Cannot it not be both?

I've been saying this for a long time. A film like 'Get Smart' I'd watch on PPV but I've no interest in owning. 'No Country For Old Men' I watched on a plane and then went out and bought the blu-ray. When was the last time we had a single way of watching a film?

Anyway I was in HMV in the Bullring in Birmingham yesterday.

They have a long wall dedicated to blu-ray which actually goes past the TV shown and on a bit further to the end of the wall (It's a bit of a cheat. The same titles appear more than once.). The TV was showing Transformers. There were doing a two disks for £30 offer. There was also quite a bit of interest in the whole thing.

 

[Bald Monkey]

How Wide is the guys head above??

He's almost got two heads!!





As for the instore promo... I presume these are paid for by the BDA, I know most in the US stores were and are according to what I've read.. So I wonder how much this cost the BDA?? I'm sure it's got to be done, but I wish they'd have just reduced the price of the discs... as I think this will do more to grow the format. But then I've got to conceed they must know a lot more about promoting BR than me..

The ASDA near me, one of the best High street places for BR's near here. Is just re-vamping it's BR/DVD section... I'm hoping for a far better BR display before Xmas.