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BD 100Gb by 2007?

Nic Rhodes

Distinguished Member
Early on in the year BDA were talking about shipping 100Gb disc in 2007. Now we know there has been delays and the BDA are working hard to get BD50s into the shops. Do you think we will see BD100 some time in 2007 and what effect would this have to the growing market?
 

BadAss

Banned
I certainly don't think it will be in 2007. It will take atleast a year to get BD50s established.
 

Avi

Distinguished Member
Nic Rhodes said:
Early on in the year BDA were talking about shipping 100Gb disc in 2007. Now we know there has been delays and the BDA are working hard to get BD50s into the shops. Do you think we will see BD100 some time in 2007 and what effect would this have to the growing market?

Is that on one side ?:devil: Can any of the released/announced players including PS£ read more than 50gb dual layer media ?

AVI
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
Do you think we will see BD100 some time in 2007 and what effect would this have to the growing market?
I think the BluRay members should aspire to BD50 and some decent quality BluRay discs first. :lesson:

All in all though I can't see 100GB discs having any impact on the market at all. For one thing they would be rarely used as a BD100 is going to cost significantly more than a BD25/BD50 to produce. And secondly what is the point? The BluRay fans on here constantly tell us how Sony is on the verge of releasing VC1 titles in which case BD25 will be more than enough in 95% of case and BD50 will account for the rest.

The 45GB-50GB offered by HD DVD45/BD50 offer six hours of high def video encoded with high bitrate VC1 as well as a lossless and lossy soundtracks. Is this sort of running time ever going to required?
 

rover2002

Active Member
Nic Rhodes said:
Early on in the year BDA were talking about shipping 100Gb disc in 2007. Now we know there has been delays and the BDA are working hard to get BD50s into the shops. Do you think we will see BD100 some time in 2007 and what effect would this have to the growing market?

I think most will be amazed to see BD50 let alone BD100.Even with the BD50 i think Sony will struggle in 2007.They have spent whole bunch on R&D and it won't be easy to make that up when your compeating on both those fronts (360/HDDVD).
 

JohnWH

Active Member
This has no bearing on consumer AV as afaik CE players will only support 2 layer 50GB, for general data storage might be interresting IF they can get the media costs down.

John.
 

Nic Rhodes

Distinguished Member
But if they solve the issues of BD50 aren't these also the issues of BD100?

Quote from annual dealer line show Las Vegas in early 2006

"we have a roadmap that goes to 100Gb, four layer product.....[which] we are looking to ship as well"

from a distinguished panel of BD people.
 

richard plumb

Distinguished Member
sony have given passing mention to high bitrate MPEG2 with BD100. Personally I think they should quit while they are ahead (well, behind...)

I agree that BD100 might be a nice weapon in the PC backup space, but not really relevant for movies now that HDDVD and VC1 have surely killed off MPEG2?

And isn't BD50 already more expensive to produce than HDDVD30? BD100 wouldn't be financially viable, even if small volumes were possible in 2007. I'm not paying a fiver more for spiderman 3 just so Sony can stick with MPEG2 - especially when VC1 is a cost-free option
 

Nic Rhodes

Distinguished Member
I suspect BD50 is more expensive than HD DL3 layer as well but 100Gb is much more interesting than 25Gb.

The 100Gb coment re roadmap were aimed at 'movies' and not computer storage by the way. It may be 50Gb at the moment but the roadmap.....
 

lfletcher

Well-known Member
I think it would be interesting if they can get 100GB discs to work, but even if they did I can't see them using them for movies.

There are posts over on AVS about people seeing demo clips on Blu Ray which are the best HD they have seen, which I assume are using very high bitrates, but a whole film encoded in such a way would never fit on 25GB disc (or 50GB I assume).

Which of the film companies are actually going to go to the trouble and expense to provide this kind of product to the consumer? Warner appear to be one of the only companies that try to do right by their customers, but it appears most of the others dont really care. In fact Sony love giving you a substandard product, so that they can resell it to you 5 times over. In saying that, are 100GB discs going to be for Blu Ray superbit :D
 

Avi

Distinguished Member
lfletcher said:
In fact Sony love giving you a substandard product, so that they can resell it to you 5 times over. In saying that, are 100GB discs going to be for Blu Ray superbit :D

Except this time around they also get to sell you a new superbit player as well because your existing BD player can't read them :hiya:

AVI
 

richard plumb

Distinguished Member
lfletcher said:
There are posts over on AVS about people seeing demo clips on Blu Ray which are the best HD they have seen, which I assume are using very high bitrates, but a whole film encoded in such a way would never fit on 25GB disc (or 50GB I assume).

exactly. Sony have talked about high bitrate MPEG2. And bluray supports the bitrates necessary. In theory MPEG2 and BD100 would be a great combination.

Unfortunately for Sony, Toshiba also have a great combination called VC1 + 30GB discs.

I'm sure at the time the roadmaps were being put together it seemed like a good idea - especially if VC1 was very late to the party as suggested.

So I think the reality of the situation is that there is no longer any need for such large discs. The cost of them is likely to mean that its cheaper to package 2 BD50s for TV sets etc than 1 BD100
 

BadAss

Banned
One reason they may go beyond 50GB is if they increase resolutions beyond 1080p. How long after 1080p becomes the norm do you think it will take before we start seeing the first highend 4k PJs?
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
One reason they may go beyond 50GB is if they increase resolutions beyond 1080p. How long after 1080p becomes the norm do you think it will take before we start seeing the first highend 4k PJs?
Well they'll need a new format then as the specification for BluRay doesn't support anything more. Whilst BluRay discs could still be used it would have to be marketed as something else, e.g. "BluRay Extra" and would obviously be incompatible with all before it. I should imagine by the time that happens it would be against a new format that was (due to it's later design) significantly technologically superior across the board.
 

Uruloke

Active Member
Rasczak said:
Well they'll need a new format then as the specification for BluRay doesn't support anything more. Whilst BluRay discs could still be used it would have to be marketed as something else, e.g. "BluRay Extra" and would obviously be incompatible with all before it. I should imagine by the time that happens it would be against a new format that was (due to it's later design) significantly technologically superior across the board.
Actually I think (or perhaps hope) that both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD will be the last compressed formats. 1080p has been proven to be enough for high quality viewing through projectors onto large screens for the home. In the not-too-distant future technology will have advanced enough that there will be no need for compression at all, a direct transfer from the source is all that will be required... I think.
 

Mr.D

Distinguished Member
Nic Rhodes said:
That will take a serious hike in storage ability, into a few TerrBytes for a film. Ouch.


More like 1-2 terrabytes for a 2k film. A gigabyte was a crazy amount of space 10 years ago.
 

richard plumb

Distinguished Member
I don't think they'll go lossless anytime. No point given the kind of transparancy doable with VC1 on HDDVD.

And I don't think they'll go higher than 1080p. Perhaps for digital cinema projection, but not for homes. Even 1080p isn't necessary except for very large screens/very close viewing distances.

hopefully we'll settle down with 1080p for a good few years - much like SD colour. Next format will most likely just be VOD though.
 

Jeff

Distinguished Member
If anything they will look to compress even more, that way they can go the Internet download route.
 

tryingtimes

Well-known Member
Re: the 100GB disk
Well it may work out that Sony will try anything to get a distinct marketing advantage.
If they can put "3 times the storage capacity of HD-DVD" then at least it gives people a reason to suspect better quality.
IMO Now that it's looking firmly in second place, Sony will be scrabbling for exclusive content first and then PQ. Surely the 100GB is worth them pusuing.
 

wooski

Standard Member
They wont go uncompressed - there would be no benefit to the consumer.

I work with some guys who digitise standard def video for broadcast. They do this using MPEG2 at 50Mb/sec. Sometimes they ingest at 10Mb/sec and they say it can be difficult to tell the difference. Incidentally - uncompressed standard def PAL video is around 277Mb/sec.

It wouldn't surpise me if hardly anyone could tell the difference between 25 to 30Mb/sec VC1 and uncompressed video on a home screen.

Same argument goes for audio. What's the point of uncompressed full audio? I can see the arguement for lossless but no more.
 

Nic Rhodes

Distinguished Member
Any idea what HD is? I remember a figure of about 1Gb/sec but can't find my notes :( all I remenber we three 7 sec clips filling a 20Gb hard drive!!
 

Jeff

Distinguished Member
Rather than uncompressed video I'd like to see full resolution colour.
 

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