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AV Referendum - Date & Content Under Threat

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
The 6 May AV Referendum may be about to suffer a setback:
BBC News - AV voting reform referendum faces threat from peers

If de-railed it will be interesting to see what will happen the coalition. The Lib Dems are badly placed for a new General Election (latest YOUGOV poll puts them on 11%). But surely they won't stand for being made to look like they have sacrificed so many of their principals for nothing?
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
The 6 May AV Referendum may be about to suffer a setback:
BBC News - AV voting reform referendum faces threat from peers

If de-railed it will be interesting to see what will happen the coalition. The Lib Dems are badly placed for a new General Election (latest YOUGOV poll puts them on 11%). But surely they won't stand for being made to look like they have sacrificed so many of their principals for nothing?

And that's why Cameron wants them to win the referendum.

BTW, panic over, the referendum is going ahead anyway:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-11754656

Steve W
 

rogerh

Active Member
Here we go for the Tories, supported by the Labour opposition of course, to work as hard as possible to scupper any form of electoral reform which may endanger the current status quo of US or THEM. Yes I know we have a joint LibDem CON government but in reality we have seen how that means a Tory government.
Of course the media will also fight to keep the present system as will the whole of those whose very interests and power might be reduced however slightly.
The danger of the referendum being scuppered is that the electorate will see it as a LibDem idea and therefore not to be trusted based on their current record.
However we really do all need to seize this opportunity to at least step some way forward from the current system of MPs being sat nicely in safe seats and government being chosen by the voters in those marginal seats.
I'm just one of the millions across the UK who feel they are dis-enfranchised due to living in a 'safe' seat and who longs for their vote to actually be worth something.:lease:
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
rogerh, I'm quite optimistic.

My understanding is that the Conservatives won't campaign against this referendum, but that individuals are free to do so.

At the moment, as you rightly say, we have a coalition that's 99% tory, with just this small part LD. If any of the high profile tories campaigned against it (and I mean campaign, rather than just coming down on one side or another in an interview) and that resulted in a loss at the polls and the collapse of the coalition, then DC would be very unhappy, and his friends know this.

I think that most Conservatives will convince themselves that this is a small step (which it is) and that any small loss in seats will be more than offset by the gains from the re-drawing of boundaries, and will subsequently not campaign (or at least not too hard).

Think about what might happen if the referendum is lost, and the LDs are left supporting a coalition from which they get nothing for 4 more years, apart from getting further dubbed as tory stooges supporting unpopular cuts.

I think that eventuality would be a nightmare for Cameron. The last thing he wants to do is to take a phone call from Nick Clegg the morning after a poll defeat.

Truth be told, I suspect a majority of tories would be happy with AV, and their main problem with it would be that it's seen as the thin end of the wedge for electoral reform.

Steve W
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
rogerh, I'm quite optimistic.
I'm quite optimistic as well - winning or losing the referendum doesn't really matter anymore as the Lib Dems are a spent force in British National politics. And I suspect Scottish politics as well. With the two party system restored, AV will just increase the trend of a winning party.
 

happyhomer

Active Member
Let's just imagine for a second that the referendum is lost.

What then?

Could the coalition survive?

Over to you, AVF-ers. :smashin:

Steve W

Should the referendum be lost (quite likely, in my view although I really hope that it is not the case) I honestly can't see the coalition holding up for too long. Up to now I'm pretty certain that the LD's are ensuring that the coalition looks solid as they have to show that this form of government is a good thing. The likes of Simon Hughes and others from the left of the party will hold their noses and justify things like the raising of tuition tuition fees in the knowledge that to do otherwise at this stage could cause the coalition to fall apart, which would lead to a certain referendum defeat.

In the event of the referendum result calling for the status quo to be maintained, then imo there would be no incentive whatsoever for those LD's unhappy with coalition policies to keep quiet about it. Of course, the LD's would stand a good chance at getting wiped-out at the next election, so I have a feeling that there will be a number of defections from the LD's to both Labour and the Tories.

All that said, there is one thing that could save the coalition (and particularly the LD's) in the event of the referendum being lost, and that is if the economy is visibly improving and the LD's can say "Look, it was painful but we did the right thing and there is proof to see." Without that, I would give the coalition until the end of 2011 before it falls apart if there is no electoral reform on the way.
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
I'm quite optimistic as well - winning or losing the referendum doesn't really matter anymore as the Lib Dems are a spent force in British National politics. And I suspect Scottish politics as well. With the two party system restored, AV will just increase the trend of a winning party.

Rasczak, a week is a long time in politics. If you really think the LDs are "...a spent force in British National politics..." because of the events of the first 6 months of a 5 year coalition, then...well let's just say that I think that you're possibly getting a little ahead of yourself.

Steve W
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
In the event of the referendum result calling for the status quo to be maintained, then imo there would be no incentive whatsoever for those LD's unhappy with coalition policies to keep quiet about it. Of course, the LD's would stand a good chance at getting wiped-out at the next election, so I have a feeling that there will be a number of defections from the LD's to both Labour and the Tories.
The LDs will spend a significant amount of their reserves campaigning for the AV referendum - they are unlikely to be in a position to be able to fund a General Election in May 11. Add to that their current poll rating is circa-11% - and the cuts haven't even kicked in yet. Leaving the coalition post a lost referendum would unlikely gain them much support either - they have already proven themselves dishonest thus alienating their core vote, and leaving would just make a farce of the 'Democrat' title they strive for. The Lib Dems are being a rock and a hard place which I think is a great thing for British politics.

The Conservatives will be keen to keep the coalition going until 2013 when the new boundary changes come into force.
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
The LDs will spend a significant amount of their reserves campaigning for the AV referendum - they are unlikely to be in a position to be able to fund a General Election in May 11.

I think you'll find there's already a quite seperate campaign for reform in this area being planned, and I'm not sure the LDs will have to spend too much at all.

Steve W
 

Rasczak

Distinguished Member
Slippage of the AV referendum date is on the cards again according to The Telegraph. The paper alleges that if the Lords delay the legislation, a “Plan B” has been devised which would see the referendum being delayed until the second or third week of September.

Good to see Labour take a stand - I am not sure the constinuent changes have been properly thought out. I not sure how changes so overtly political will ever survive beyond the current Government.
 
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Miyazaki

Distinguished Member
Good to see Labour take a stand - I am not sure the constinuent changes have been properly thought out. I not sure how changes so overtly political will ever survive beyond the current Government.
:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

The only thing labour have stood for in the last 14 years is spin, war and corruption.
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
Increased funding for education.

Removing clause 28/removing unequal gay age of consent/introducing civil partnerships.

Massive decrease in crime (no matter what the tablioids say).

Heart disease deaths down by over 150k.

Free nursery places for every child aged over 3.

Inflation record (excellent by and standards).

Devolution to Scotland and Wales.

Cancer deaths down by 50k.

Interest rates (historically low and stable by any standards).

Banned fox hunting.

They should have done better, but that was all pretty good.

Steve W
 

la gran siete

Distinguished Member
Increased funding for education.

Removing clause 28/removing unequal gay age of consent/introducing civil partnerships.

Massive decrease in crime (no matter what the tablioids say).

Heart disease deaths down by over 150k.

Free nursery places for every child aged over 3.

Inflation record (excellent by and standards).

Devolution to Scotland and Wales.

Cancer deaths down by 50k.

Interest rates (historically low and stable by any standards).

Banned fox hunting.

They should have done better, but that was all pretty good.

Steve W
brokering the peace treaty in NI
Sorting out Sierra Leone
Major player in sorting Kosovo out and bringing Milosevic to justice
minimum wage
Family tax credits

reminds me of the "what have the Romans ever done for the us" line in Life of Brian
 

Miyazaki

Distinguished Member
That's not really true though is it?

Minimum wage?

Reduced NHS waiting times?

Those are just 2 off the top of my head.

Erosion of civil liberties, illegal wars, introduction of tuition fees.. just 3 off the top of my head.
 

Sonic67

Banned
Erosion of civil liberties, illegal wars, introduction of tuition fees.. just 3 off the top of my head.

Leaving the countries economy screwed.
 

Pecker

Distinguished Member
This is one of those infuriating things about internet discussion.

Miyazak said (emphasis mine):

:rotfl::rotfl::rotfl:

The only thing labour have stood for in the last 14 years is spin, war and corruption.

A few posts then list some of the last government's achievements. Not saying they only did good, but pointing out that they didn't only do bad, as Miyazak implied.

Then we get responses listing bad things about the last government.

Can people please not to try to be just a tiny bit more balanced? Pretending that a government lasted through 3 elections and for 13 years without doing any good whatsoever is insulting the British electorate, and to the intelligence of every forum member here.

If you don't know the difference between a government which you think was bad on balance, and a government which did no good whatsoever, then you need to sit back and sconsider your input to sensible political discussion.

Steve W
 

Miyazaki

Distinguished Member
then you need to sit back and sconsider your input to sensible political discussion.

Steve W

Stev you need to consider that there has never been a sensible political discussion.

Even in the houses of parliament they can't behave like anything other than petulant children, barracking each other, shouting over each other.

Stev, even when a politician makes a reasonably good point, the opposition jeers them until they sit down.

IMO the illegal war labour led us into overrides any good that the government may have done.

On balance, I can't think of very much, if anything labour have done that had any impact on me on a personal level.
 

Miyazaki

Distinguished Member
As for the reduction of NHS waiting times, I don't believe that for a second. It might be true on paper, but where I live, the system for seeing a GP has changed from being able to phone up on a Monday and get an appointment any time during the week to a disastrous mêlée where you can only phone for an appointment on the day at 8:00am, with phoning at 8:05am leaving you having to phone up the next day on the off chance you can sneak on the phone in the nanosecond between different callers.
 

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