Are we heading for the biggest housing crash in history?

TonyTeacake

Active Member
It's not me they would be disagreeing with, I've simply stated the statistics, that house prices have increased approx 100 fold in the last half century.

Whether that's a good or bad thing is debatable, but as a long term investment, you can't go wrong.
Seen has you are on a roll would you like to tell us anything else about your assets?
 

gangzoom

Well-known Member
Let's play a guessing game....

Here are the current house prices on our street, high but if you look at the size of the plots (our neighbours have a swimming pool), they are pretty good estimates I would say.

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52064483372_ceb2430c8d_c_d.jpg


There is a brand new estate been build I would guess 1-1.5 km away as the crow files, and the agents are literally about to release their prices. Looking at the plot sizes I recon you could build 4-5 of the larger detached new builds on a single plot on our street.

So how much do you all recon plot 6 (largest) will be listed for? I recon £600k.

Given these new build will be costing the builder sub £150k to construct each, even assuming they paid £700k for 1/2 acre or land (they would have paid alot less), that's £1 million profit comfortably for each 4 £600k houses they sell!!!

So £600k for plot 6 in the current market with local celling price of £1million, what so people recon, higher or lower:)

52065759339_6380c22b7b_c_d.jpg
.

52065560803_444a274bc3_c_d.jpg
 
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LakieLady

Distinguished Member
Ever since I bought my first house in 1968, there's been talk of a crash, but (apart from the occasional short term blip) the prices just keep going up and up.

Supply & demand rules, ok? :smashin:

My recollection is that after the big crash at the end of the 1980s, prices took around 10 years to recover. I had a look for data to support or correct this recollection, and it appears that, when adjusted for inflation, it was pretty accurate, at 12 years.

house price inflation

I realise that this is data from just one source, but I was quite surprised. And I don't think that can really be regarded as a "short term blip", even allowing for a decent margin of error.
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
I think many people will disagree with you especially the one's who lost there properties during these times.

I wonder what happened to all the debt that those who suffered repossessions while in negative equity from 1989 onwards were left with.

Did the banks and building societies just write it off in the end? Or could they, theoretically, still come after them for it?
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
The 'positive' of a crash is that it would allow people who might not have otherwise been able to access a property get on the ladder.

At the expense of someone who has run into difficult times and / or overstretched themselves obviously.

But if there is a mini-crash and landlords owning multiple properties have some of their homes repossessed, surely this could lead to more accessible property for many others?

I'm not sure how I feel about people owning multiple homes to be honest - I know quite a few people now who own 2-6 properties and rent them out and are making an absolute killing. It's relatively easy money and the epitome of 'money makes money' in many respects. And it inflates the market stopping younger people getting on the ladder.
 

Xenomorph

Member
Let's play a guessing game....

Here are the current house prices on our street, high but if you look at the size of the plots (our neighbours have a swimming pool), they are pretty good estimates I would say.

52064472122_6e46cb0dbd_c_d.jpg


52064483372_ceb2430c8d_c_d.jpg


There is a brand new estate been build I would guess 1-1.5 km away as the crow files, and the agents are literally about to release their prices. Looking at the plot sizes I recon you could build 4-5 of the larger detached new builds on a single plot on our street.

So how much do you all recon plot 6 (largest) will be listed for? I recon £600k.

Given these new build will be costing the builder sub £150k to construct each, even assuming they paid £700k for 1/2 acre or land (they would have paid alot less), that's £1 million profit comfortably for each 4 £600k houses they sell!!!

So £600k for plot 6 in the current market with local celling price of £1million, what so people recon, higher or lower:)

52065759339_6380c22b7b_c_d.jpg
.

52065560803_444a274bc3_c_d.jpg

As usual with new builds - rammed in, very little parking space. And you pay an astronomical price for this!
 

Inked

Distinguished Member
The 'positive' of a crash is that it would allow people who might not have otherwise been able to access a property get on the ladder.
As long as mortgage rates don’t go up to wipe out the price change.

A £350k mortgage at 1.7% over 25 years is £1433/m (and they are already going up above 2% for a reasonable fixed term)

If we see a 20% correction but mortgage rates hit 4% then the monthly payments on £[email protected] is £1478

The banks will still go through affordability checks and expect a large deposit which most people are already struggling to save up whether it’s £35k or £28k
 

Tight Git

Distinguished Member
A £350k mortgage at 1.7% over 25 years is £1433/m ...

Having paid off my mortgage when I retired in 1995, I find these figures eye watering! :eek:

If I remember correctly, my first mortgage in 1968 was £35 per month.

Of course, it's all relative because my take home pay was £95 per month at the time.
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
The 'positive' of a crash is that it would allow people who might not have otherwise been able to access a property get on the ladder.

At the expense of someone who has run into difficult times and / or overstretched themselves obviously.

But if there is a mini-crash and landlords owning multiple properties have some of their homes repossessed, surely this could lead to more accessible property for many others?

I'm not sure how I feel about people owning multiple homes to be honest - I know quite a few people now who own 2-6 properties and rent them out and are making an absolute killing. It's relatively easy money and the epitome of 'money makes money' in many respects. And it inflates the market stopping younger people getting on the ladder.

But it also provides much needed homes for those who can't buy, or don't want to buy now because they anticipate a change of circumstances in the near future.

I wouldn't have a problem with it if the PRS wasn't so badly stacked against tenants. I think it's a disgrace that a landlord can evict a tenant for no reason at all, leaving tenants scared to request repairs or do anything that could conceivably antagonise a landlord (like change energy supplier, in one case).

I knew a landlord who decided not to end someone's tenancy because he didn't like the fact that she had a black boyfriend (he didn't "want her sort" in his property, so he said) and ended another tenancy when he found out that a tenant was having treatment for mental health problems (he found out by snooping in the tenant's flat while the tenant was out, and read a letter confirming a psych appt). There is no protection against this sort of treatment. And don't get me started on the "sex for rent" creeps...
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
Having paid off my mortgage when I retired in 1995, I find these figures eye watering! :eek:

If I remember correctly, my first mortgage in 1968 was £35 per month.

Of course, it's all relative because my take home pay was £95 per month at the time.

I still can't get over the fact that I live in house worth half a mill.

If anyone had said that I'd live in a house that expensive when I bought my first house for £24k, or even the current one for £49k, I'd have wondered if they were quite right in the head.

If my salary had increased in line with house prices, I'd be on over £200k pa now. The salary for the job I did then is approx £35k now. Even if I was able to borrow 10x salary, I wouldn't be able to buy this house. And it's weeny, I don't live in a mansion!
 

TonyTeacake

Active Member
I still can't get over the fact that I live in house worth half a mill.

If anyone had said that I'd live in a house that expensive when I bought my first house for £24k, or even the current one for £49k, I'd have wondered if they were quite right in the head.

If my salary had increased in line with house prices, I'd be on over £200k pa now. The salary for the job I did then is approx £35k now. Even if I was able to borrow 10x salary, I wouldn't be able to buy this house. And it's weeny, I don't live in a mansion!
 

LakieLady

Distinguished Member
The tiny fraction was enough to bring house prices down nationally. Try and explain that one to the masses.

It wasn't just the repossessions that did that. People in negative equity couldn't use equity towards the next purchase, those that weren't in negative equity couldn't get buyers, and the high interest rates meant they couldn't borrow enough to buy. Plus FTBs that could buy were scared to, in case prices fell further.

The value of my house fell by 40-50%, but it didn't matter, because I wasn't over-leveraged and the house I bought was a lot cheaper. But it took ages to sell, I rented it out for a year when I moved from London to Sussex.
 

TonyTeacake

Active Member
This is an interesting read, even though the article is quite old.
Thanks, I just read the article. To be honest I see a bigger financial crash this time around due to all the QE during the pandemic which has been a big contributor to the inflation we are having. This is much a bigger bubble than last time. It will be only a matter of time before we see it playing out.
 

gangzoom

Well-known Member
As usual with new builds - rammed in, very little parking space. And you pay an astronomical price for this!

I estimated £600K for a detached plot = £1 million profit per x4 home sold for the developer....well it looks like £1million profit isn't enough!! The 'smaller' detached is up for £620K, so I assume the top spec build will push close to £700k........some one is going to be rolling around in £££££ at the developers offices.

52102219446_702b7e9c76_z_d.jpg
 

niceguy1966

Distinguished Member
Leeds shows no signs of any housing crash, still massive demand and prices rocketing.
The biggest rises are often just before a crash. That's how bubbles work.

People get obsessed about buying quickly at any price, before prices rise again, then suddenly demand stops and prices crash. Often due to an outside change, like interest rates or unemployment rising.
 

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