Any Recommendations in Shares to Invest in?

silent ninja

Well-known Member
It has been delivering recently when other funds have been dropping.
Fortunately the US high yield bond rally is over so main fund prices are going up again.

It'll be back 😆
It's going to be a very interesting 2 years in the stock market indeed. So much uncertainty around inflation, the impact of interest rate rises in 2023, and yet more quantitative easing. The US gets all the attention, but every single developed country has been printing money like crazy for the last few years. Something has got to give!

There's talk of a debt jubilee (government cancelling debt, debt which accrued cos they bought back bonds with printed money for example). I'm no economist but that leads to debasement in currency.

As an investor now, we have to have a decent understanding of the macro environment. I don't understand it that well so I think I'm going to lean toward the cautious side and liquidate half my shares to cash at the end of this year (at least).
 

Panavision

Distinguished Member
Why does that matter though?

Does Apple make it's batteries, screens, network chips, cameras? The iPhone does pretty well despite that.

Because OEMs are still stuck in the old ways, stuck in the ICE age, dragging their heels. I suspect some OEMS will either collapse or have to merge. VW are doing it. I have high hopes for them.

It's matters hugely for Tesla because that way they can reduce costs. It matters that Tesla will soon be making tons of batteries because they have access to lithium mining next to the Giga Texas factory.

Apple design their own chips now, they have disrupted Intel and other chipmakers.
Apple have a smaller battery in the iPhone 12, yet it still outperforms Samsung phones in terms of battery performance.


I can't see battery tech being a differentiator. It'll just become a commodity. There are numerous big battery tech suppliers that are just as good as Tesla in the long run and can supply anyone: Microvast, Freyr, quantumscape (who just passed a technical milestone yesterday and received $200m from VW).

Battery and software is the key. A lot of battery companies haven't scaled yet. Quantumscape is many years away from full scale production.


On the charging side: EVBox, evgo, Chargepoint, Bling Charging and probably others. They will help create infrastructure in our homes, at work and at public charging stations.

Yes, we need them. Tesla can't do it on their own. Tesla are expected to open up their network to other manufacturers soon. Nice additional revenue for Tesla.

Teslas key differentiatior right now is their software and big data/AI. The latter is to do with the amount of real data they have which Google and others just cannot match right now. They do hold numerous patents in EV too, but I'm not sure how valuable they are.

Agreed. Software, data and cheaper manufacturing processes.

Remember, Tesla don't want to crush the competition, they want them to hurry up and move to EV production.

Expected revenue for this year should be around 60 billion, double 2020. Tesla's current mcap is 660 billion. That's ten times revenue. Not bad valuation. I expect it to hit 900 billion market cap by the year's end.
 

Trollslayer

Distinguished Member
It'll be back 😆
Except I will have a better chance of losing significantly less money in the process which means when things start going up I will be able to buy more units.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
Battery tech is key in range and pushing costs down. Tesla held a battery event late last year explaining their tech and how ground breaking it is.

Tesla also announced excellent deliveries in Q1. 185k vehicles. Looking forward to market opening
 

Panavision

Distinguished Member
Battery tech is key in range and pushing costs down. Tesla held a battery event late last year explaining their tech and how ground breaking it is.

Tesla also announced excellent deliveries in Q1. 185k vehicles. Looking forward to market opening

Fantastic Q1 production and delivery numbers. 109% increase compared to 2020 Q1.

Looking like over one million in vehicle production for this year. 100% YoY growth.
 

busterbenny2001

Distinguished Member
Quick one guys any opinions on wealthify? Just planning on sticking a few quid in monthly to have a dabble, my son invested £1k last year and made 9% just wondered if anyone had any experience of the company, seems a slick easy to use app.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
As an investment option, it buy to let worth it anymore ? Was looking at 15 to 20 year investment.

Property always an attractive investment in my opinion but I'd avoid university towns now. Pretty confident higher education will have a massive wave of disruption in the next 5 years.

Honestly I think blockchain and crypto are the spaces to really do research and due diligence on. Too compelling to ignore.
 

silent ninja

Well-known Member
Quick one guys any opinions on wealthify? Just planning on sticking a few quid in monthly to have a dabble, my son invested £1k last year and made 9% just wondered if anyone had any experience of the company, seems a slick easy to use app.
Wealthify, Nutmeg and other robo advisors are a waste of money. They all underperform the S&P 500 whilst charging you higher fees. So why not just invest in Vanguard's S&P 500 tracker - arguably the best passive investment you could make in the stock market.

I honestly have no idea why these companies exist. They are brilliant at marketing and convincing you that opening a stocks and shares ISA and setting up a direct debit for an index tracker is hard work. It really isn't.
 

silent ninja

Well-known Member
Because OEMs are still stuck in the old ways, stuck in the ICE age, dragging their heels. I suspect some OEMS will either collapse or have to merge. VW are doing it. I have high hopes for them.

It's matters hugely for Tesla because that way they can reduce costs. It matters that Tesla will soon be making tons of batteries because they have access to lithium mining next to the Giga Texas factory.

Apple design their own chips now, they have disrupted Intel and other chipmakers.
Apple have a smaller battery in the iPhone 12, yet it still outperforms Samsung phones in terms of battery performance.




Battery and software is the key. A lot of battery companies haven't scaled yet. Quantumscape is many years away from full scale production.




Yes, we need them. Tesla can't do it on their own. Tesla are expected to open up their network to other manufacturers soon. Nice additional revenue for Tesla.



Agreed. Software, data and cheaper manufacturing processes.

Remember, Tesla don't want to crush the competition, they want them to hurry up and move to EV production.

Expected revenue for this year should be around 60 billion, double 2020. Tesla's current mcap is 660 billion. That's ten times revenue. Not bad valuation. I expect it to hit 900 billion market cap by the year's end.

I largely agree but I don't think OEMs need to worry about battery technology. As mentioned, there will be numerous global suppliers that can roughly match Tesla. Microvast is in production right now and their production is going to exponentially increase. Freyr hits production in 2022, their battery design is licenced from an MIT lab and looks on paper to be superior to Tesla and at a significantly lower production cost.
I don't see batteries as differentiating, nor the need to vertically integrate. It's nice but not necessary for success. Many horizontally integrated companies who've done great - you just have to own the magic sauce and in my opinion that's the software and data right now, not batteries, motors or other mechanical things.
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
I think you are substantially underestimating TSLA and over estimating traditional auto. But time will tell. It’s been a great weekend for TSLA and next week will be very interesting.
 

Steve N

Distinguished Member
Wealthify, Nutmeg and other robo advisors are a waste of money. They all underperform the S&P 500 whilst charging you higher fees. So why not just invest in Vanguard's S&P 500 tracker - arguably the best passive investment you could make in the stock market.

I honestly have no idea why these companies exist. They are brilliant at marketing and convincing you that opening a stocks and shares ISA and setting up a direct debit for an index tracker is hard work. It really isn't.
Agree entirely.
I posted on here a while back about trackers which I've been investing in for a few years now.
Over time they always outperform the "investment managers" for a tiny fraction of the fees.
I previously used H.L. and Nutmeg (before buying Trackers) but have been using Vanguard for a while now. Lowest fees of any of the big boys, great website and super helpful.

I was split between the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 but I've currently got nearly all in the FTSE 100.
The S+P is at an all time high at the moment, but I feel the FTSE has a lot of recovery growth to go yet - it's still more than 13% lower than pre Covid.
 
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busterbenny2001

Distinguished Member
Agree entirely.
I posted on here a while back about trackers which I've been investing in for a few years now.
Over time they always outperform the "investment managers" for a tiny fraction of the fees.
I previously used H.L. and Nutmeg (before buying Trackers) but have been using Vanguard for a while now. Lowest fees of any of the big boys, great website and super helpful.

I was split between the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100 but I've currently got nearly all in the FTSE 100.
The S+P is at an all time high at the moment, but I feel the FTSE has a lot of recovery growth to go yet - it's still more than 13% lower than pre Covid.

thanks for this is it a general account you open and which are the trackers there is so many to choose from is it

S&P 500 UCITS ETF (VUSA)
And which of the FTSE there is so many :)

confusing
FTSE 100 Index Unit Trust AccumulationDocument£
£
FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (VUKE)Document£
£
FTSE 250 UCITS ETF (VMID) Document£
£
FTSE U.K. All Share Index Unit Trust - Accumulation Document£
£
FTSE U.K. Equity Income Index Fund - Accumulation
 

Steve N

Distinguished Member
If you are UK based its this one: FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (VUKE)
Or the 250, but the 100 is the top 100 companies. It works a bit like the Premier league. If a company falls out of the top 100 another replaces it so lame ducks disappear.
I have mine under the ISA umbrella so no tax on profits to pay.
Also, the FTSE 100 UCITS ETF (VUKE) Is not an accumulation account.
It pays dividends every 3 Months and those are classed as within the ISA account.
I always re-invest mine in the same account, so it acts like an accumulation account, but you are in control over whether to take the cash or re-invest it.
Hope this helps
 
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busterbenny2001

Distinguished Member
Thanks Steve yes it makes sense to me and very helpful so thanks I’ll set up something tomorrow and have a go calm and sedate passive investing seems more me than the volatile blockchain bitcoin rollercoaster that my son is trying to get me involved in!
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
A modest amount of bitcoin, staked on blockfi (earning 6% interest) with regular contributions will compound and out-perform any Vanguard product. I wouldn't dismiss bitcoin on its volatility. Your son is onto something!
 

busterbenny2001

Distinguished Member
A modest amount of bitcoin, staked on blockfi (earning 6% interest) with regular contributions will compound and out-perform any Vanguard product. I wouldn't dismiss bitcoin on its volatility. Your son is onto something!
I’m convinced he is but I struggle to understand it all :) I always make my money by hard graft, he tends to be lucky win things last was £10k RAF sports lottery , he chatted to me over the weekend about his dabble in crypto I enjoyed the chat and it’s made me determined to read a little more into it!
he messaged me this morning saying some of his stocks had gone crazy and he was £7k up :)
XRP his main gainer it seems
930AA995-D83D-4E36-8BAD-07AA195F1455.jpeg
 

Hillskill

Moderator/Games Reviewer
You invested in Oil and Gas in this day and age!?
 

silent ninja

Well-known Member
Until the next crash when it loses 70% of its value again.
To be fair, the stock market is prone to major crashes too every 10-12 years (over 50% drop in value). Look at Vodafone and Cisco. 21 years since the dot-com crash and they still haven't recovered.

Even strong stocks like Google, Unilever, National Grid took around 4 years to recover after the 2008 crash.

Bitcoin recovered relatively well and most importantly it's totally smashed through previous ceilings.

With bitcoin and Ethereum, you must remember this is the first time in history we are seeing a brand new asset class in the making being observed in a venture capitalist kind of way. Where VCs see all the ups and downs in companies like Uber from inception (and often the total destruction of companies in the process), we are seeing this all in the public eye in real time. These assets are just finding their feet.

So if you got the tolerance and appetite for adventure to join in, it's a darn exciting time in the crypto world. Bitcoin is just one application. It's mind-blowing what's going on.
 

imightbewrong

Distinguished Member
To be fair, the stock market is prone to major crashes too every 10-12 years (over 50% drop in value). Look at Vodafone and Cisco. 21 years since the dot-com crash and they still haven't recovered.

Even strong stocks like Google, Unilever, National Grid took around 4 years to recover after the 2008 crash.

Bitcoin recovered relatively well and most importantly it's totally smashed through previous ceilings.

With bitcoin and Ethereum, you must remember this is the first time in history we are seeing a brand new asset class in the making being observed in a venture capitalist kind of way. Where VCs see all the ups and downs in companies like Uber from inception (and often the total destruction of companies in the process), we are seeing this all in the public eye in real time. These assets are just finding their feet.

So if you got the tolerance and appetite for adventure to join in, it's a darn exciting time in the crypto world. Bitcoin is just one application. It's mind-blowing what's going on.

Sure they can all crash - but crypto is way more volatile and who knows what the future holds, or what new contenders may emerge.

The stock market crashing as a whole is subject to macro events normally (pandemic, large scale incidents) - whereas Bitcoin et al can crash on a whim, in the middle of the night.

I hope it does great, but statements like

bitcoin, staked on blockfi (earning 6% interest) with regular contributions will compound and out-perform any Vanguard product.

need to be made very carefully IMO - 'will' doesn't leave a lot of room for manoeuvre. This is why most crypto YouTube videos have to spell out they are not offering financial advice :)

I hope it does well, and it's very easy to get excited after a good run, but I hope people investing in it are doing so as part of a balanced portfolio - or have money to totally gamble, or maybe need to 'bottom drawer' for a long time.
 

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