A 2019 General Election Analysis

IronGiant

Moderator
Constituency perhaps? Rough idea of the majority you are voting for or against?
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
Actually my mind isn't made up. I am leaning towards Conservative but it would be nice if I thought that if they get back in they would show more humanity. Jeremy Corbyn is promising everything but Boris Johnson is a cold, hard merchant. As to the GE thread, I've looked at it and it's just a series of tit for tat, inane comments with very little considered thought at all. I posted my thread which is based on accepted facts available on the net, hoping for considered replies. Of course I can't predict the election result but the survey conducted on one of the threads shows the Conservatives well ahead. It's similar in the Polls. The purpose of my analysis was to suggest that it might not actually be a done deal and to maybe stimulate some intelligent response without reference to random links.

So your mind is / was made up then , however hard you push your unbiased viewpoint .
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
That's not what Johnson has been campaigning for though, regardless of whether that's what he's going to do at the end of 2020.

Just my thoughts, a conservative majority does the WA in January but no deal woukd still on the table dependant on the trade negotiations with the EU . As in if UK goverment does not fails to make a trade deal we then revert back to a no deal Brexit ? My understanding ...
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
Just my thoughts, a conservative majority does the WA in January but no deal woukd still on the table dependant on the trade negotiations with the EU . As in if UK goverment does not fails to make a trade deal we then revert back to a no deal Brexit ? My understanding ...

Definitely. I think that’s still a possibility, although Johnson himself has been pushing to leave with a ‘great’ deal.
 

Derek S-H

Distinguished Member
Am I the only person left in the country who doesn't give a toss about Brexit and thinks that there are far more important issues that need to be addressed?

And no, I'm not going to list them as they should be evident to anyone with decent eyesight and a reasonably functioning brain.
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
Am I the only person left in the country who doesn't give a toss about Brexit and thinks that there are far more important issues that need to be addressed?

And no, I'm not going to list them as they should be evident to anyone with decent eyesight and a reasonably functioning brain.

Until Brexit is resolved ASAP one way or another then the country can not move on . And yup I'm sick to the back teeth that it is in my face 24/7 and taking away serious domestic issues the UK has.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
I do have some immediate, considered reaction following the election as follows:

1.The election result shows that Brexit was the main issue and that rather than Remainers and fed-up Leavers switching to Labour, Leavers and fed-up Remainers switched to Conservative. Undoubtedly, what happens to our country as a result of Brexit will affect what government can do. If Brexit increases our fortunes then there will be rewards available but if it makes things worse then the government’s job will be made more difficult. Many of those traditional Labour voters who one would have thought would have revolted against Conservative austerity and the North/South divide but have instead switched to Conservative will expect some reward for this otherwise they may revert to Labour supporters. The Labour party has always been on the side of the `poor man’, whether or not it was deserved or needed, as was shown by their free-for-all/paid-for-by-the-rich manifesto in this last election. The election result shows (or appears to show) that at last this attitude has been rejected. But the new Conservative government cannot continue to ignore genuine effort (if that is what they have been doing) and will need to encourage and support it. Boris Johnson needs to use the security of his new majority very carefully to engineer successful policies and the people also need to support him when he does. Here are some further, more specific thoughts.

2.Immigration, Jobs, The NHS, The Care Sector

My understanding is that immigration will be more selective and designed to allow or attract more qualified and skilled people, more enterprising people. But this will provide jobs only for those immigrants and not reduce home-grown unemployment. In order to do this we need more training for our own people for skilled jobs - nurses, doctors, police, etc - and we need to get commitment from them and retain them in this country. We would also need to encourage enterprise, public-spiritedness and positivity in our own people.

If we reduce the immigration of unskilled people (and less skilled jobs are often done by immigrants), then our own unskilled people need to be encouraged to do these jobs and reduce unemployment. There is a further definite gain to be made here because these jobs are often labour intensive (as opposed to energy intensive), the kind of jobs which in times past would have kept many people occupied in `Green’ work. The human animal is designed for this kind of activity which naturally maintains physical and mental health. Modern society has `progressed’ to a situation where people do much less physical activity, take on negative attitudes and so get sick both physically and mentally. Our NHS is an amazing organisation but instead of maintaining health, which is what the NHS was set up for, it is over burdened with sickness resulting from modern living.

Another sector in which immigration currently plays an important part is the care sector. To my knowledge, people are reluctant to do jobs in the care sector and though it is a difficult job, the pay and conditions are poor but many immigrants take these jobs on. How is the government going to deal with this difficult sector? All I have heard is that they will have cross-party consultations. This doesn’t seem to be much of a commitment.

3.Independence, Trade

The whole idea of leaving the EU was independence, control over our own lives. On an individual level, a feeling of not being in control of one’s own life is a major factor in depression. If individuals become more independent, they become healthier and so does the country. But whatever changes may or may not have taken place in the mindset of the electorate in this election, they have not taken place in the rest of the world and with Brexit finally making progress, trading with the rest of the world, including the EU, will be of major importance and require major effort from all of us.

If we were truly independent then we would not need to trade. We would have to be producing our own goods, our own food etc. That is a tall order considering that under the Thatcher government a lot of our own industry disappeared. The question is why? In my opinion a major factor was excessive wages. Wages are a major part of an industry’s costs. Wages rose every year because people wanted to buy more and more where they could not really afford it. In turn this put up costs which resulted in further wage increases and so a vicious circle developed. I have first-hand experience of annual pay claims followed by annual cost-saving redundancies and eventual closure.

Therefore in order to become truly independent we need more own-production of goods and food and we cannot do that if the workers seek counter-productive wages. We need then to start out by accepting low wages so that production can increase to the level required for independence. I can imagine laughter, scorn and ridicule at this idea but the reason why other countries such as China and India are developing is that they don’t over-pay their workers and if we hadn’t done it in the past, we might still have some industry left.

It frightens me to consider what we have lost in the past 40 years and to wonder what goods we actually still trade in apart from `financial services’. We don’t produce coal, we import Russian gas, for new nuclear power stations we have approached the French, our energy companies (at least Npower -now closing) are foreign owned. We don’t make cars or ships or locomotives. Our steel industry has been vastly reduced and we have lost major chemical plants. We make jet engines and wings but not the whole thing. Have we lost the capacity to make something advanced, something whole?
 
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IronGiant

Moderator
Ships:

Queen Elizabeth:

her assembly took place in the Firth of Forth at Rosyth Dockyard from nine blocks built in six UK shipyards: BAE Systems Surface Ships in Glasgow, Babcock at Appledore, Babcock at Rosyth, A&P Tyne in Hebburn, BAE at Portsmouth and Cammell Laird (flight decks) at Birkenhead.

Cars:

The mini plant is still running, but it is a cross national project.

Locomotives:


Hitachi Newton Aycliffe is a railway rolling stock assembly plant owned by Hitachi Rail Europe, situated in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, in the North East of England. Construction started in 2013 at a cost of £82 million, also multinational.

But they are still building stuff in the UK.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
Ships:

Queen Elizabeth:

her assembly took place in the Firth of Forth at Rosyth Dockyard from nine blocks built in six UK shipyards: BAE Systems Surface Ships in Glasgow, Babcock at Appledore, Babcock at Rosyth, A&P Tyne in Hebburn, BAE at Portsmouth and Cammell Laird (flight decks) at Birkenhead.

Cars:

The mini plant is still running, but it is a cross national project.

Locomotives:


Hitachi Newton Aycliffe is a railway rolling stock assembly plant owned by Hitachi Rail Europe, situated in Newton Aycliffe, County Durham, in the North East of England. Construction started in 2013 at a cost of £82 million, also multinational.

But they are still building stuff in the UK.
Thanks for that information. Could you provide some clarification on yours `Cars' item as I don't know what it is specifically referring to? Cheers.
 
One of the outcomes of this election, will be the fact that the BBC will become less anti-Tory.
If Boris abolishes the licence fee, something at which he's hinted, they'll be some dramatic cuts in the number of well paid jobs at the BBC for the boys from the "right" universities and relatives of those already "in." Also hopefully a reduction in the "inclusivity mania" which has made the service disproportional to the actual population.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
Am I the only person left in the country who doesn't give a toss about Brexit and thinks that there are far more important issues that need to be addressed?
I guess you are feeling foolish today :)
 

jeallen01

Active Member
@IronGiant
"But they are still building stuff in the UK."
As you quite rightly said "assembly" is in the UK - but many components come from "elsewhere" , and, without those, no assembly can thus be done!o_O
 
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IronGiant

Moderator
That was implicit. Welcome to the forum :)
 

jeallen01

Active Member
@IronGiant
"Welcome" ?? - been "here" for "years" :D
 

Pacifico

Banned
As you quite rightly said "assembly" is in the UK - but many components come from "elsewhere" , and, without those, no assembly can thus be done!o_O

Surely that applies across the globe?. Airbus built in Germany wouldnt be getting off the ground without the wings and engines made in the UK, Ford Escorts built in Belgium wouldnt be going anywhere without the diesel engines built in the UK etc. etc.

Its a globalised supply chain.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
Surely that applies across the globe?. Airbus built in Germany wouldnt be getting off the ground without the wings and engines made in the UK, Ford Escorts built in Belgium wouldnt be going anywhere without the diesel engines built in the UK etc. etc.

Its a globalised supply chain.
Your point highlights the issue about independence particularly apropos Brexit. Is there really much of it?
1.The `Irish Problem' is a case of religious prejudice conflicting with a need to unite. This particular issue has been the pivot of Brexit negotiations with disproportionate leverage. The Irish need to sort this out for themselves. Hopefully Boris Johnson's new deal will be a compromise wherein the Irish will need to put in more effort. Also as I understand it the Northern Irish will have the opportunity every 4 years to re-appraise their situation.
2.We also have the rise of Scottish independence. Instead of reducing problems it is creating more.
3.As to trade, it is so complex that this is the next major issue of Brexit. Prior to the referendum we were told how easy it would be outside the EU though there were probably also opposite arguments. But it seems to me there is no objective oracle on trade to refer to hence the arguments in Parliament. And if they couldn't reach a consensus how do they expect the people to be able to decide? No, the Brexit referendum and the recent election were gut reactions but that doesn't make the results invalid. We must now hope the Government will reach sensible policies.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
One of the outcomes of this election, will be the fact that the BBC will become less anti-Tory.
If Boris abolishes the licence fee, something at which he's hinted, they'll be some dramatic cuts in the number of well paid jobs at the BBC for the boys from the "right" universities and relatives of those already "in." Also hopefully a reduction in the "inclusivity mania" which has made the service disproportional to the actual population.
I don't know myself if the BBC is biased but it does seem to me that the Brexit coverage has been gut reaction on all sides. I don't like the way interviewers ask a question and then talk over the interviewee's reply. Very little comes out of the interviews. I suppose the BBC can't give air time to every member of the public but why waste 10-15 minutes on their Brexit `blind dates'? -two chosen but unknown celebrities talking over the dinner table. There was a much better programme on Victoria Derbyshire -members of the public discussing Brexit in a café; also a focus group doing the same in studio. Have you tried contacting `Points of View' ?
 
I don't know myself if the BBC is biased but it does seem to me that the Brexit coverage has been gut reaction on all sides. I don't like the way interviewers ask a question and then talk over the interviewee's reply. Very little comes out of the interviews. I suppose the BBC can't give air time to every member of the public but why waste 10-15 minutes on their Brexit `blind dates'? -two chosen but unknown celebrities talking over the dinner table. There was a much better programme on Victoria Derbyshire -members of the public discussing Brexit in a café; also a focus group doing the same in studio. Have you tried contacting `Points of View' ?


The problem with "showbusiness" in which I include much of politics and all of broadcasting, is there's so many people trying to get their faces noticed on TV.
The main objective is of course, "the next gig." So politicians and particularly their interviewers attempt to upstage each other whenever there's a camera around.

We are now in an ideal situation for the BBC as there's plenty of opportunities to put "the world and his wife" in some "show or other" (sorry I mean meaningful discussion), as hours of rabbit are so much cheaper to produce than decent dramas or comedies.

So we get things like "The Andrew Neil Show" ***. Mind you I'm not sure how long he will last until his head finaly sinks down lower than his shoulders.
 

Pacifico

Banned
Your point highlights the issue about independence particularly apropos Brexit. Is there really much of it?

I dont understand what you mean. You dont have to be in the EU to be part of a supply chain for companies in the EU. For example Airbus gets their wing fairings from the UAE, a country half way around the world totally detached from the EU and who they dont even have a FTA with (they trade under WTO rules).
 

Tired of waiting

Novice Member
This is my personal view of how things stand in the run up to the 2019 General Election which is largely a battle between the Conservatives and The Rest.

1 Scotland

It seems unlikely in Scotland that many people are going to change their Brexit minds. But prior to the Brexit referendum, Scotland was almost wholly SNP whereas later in the 2017 general election the SNP lost seats to the main parties. Could it be that some Scots are fed up with calls for another independence referendum? While the Scots may be Remainers, it can not be taken that they are all SNP supporters so there may be room here for SNP losses but only gains to the Conservatives will make a difference.

2 Brexit Party

The appeal of the Brexit party will be to Leavers who are actively seeking a No Deal Brexit, something which opinion says is very little favoured. The Brexit party’s decision not to contest currently Conservative seats as a concession to them seems to indicate that they are not wholly behind themselves which is not a very good endorsement of themselves. I put this down to Nigel Farage who reminds me of Clint Eastwood’s `High Plains Drifter’ -he’s very sure of himself, `paints the town red’ and comes and goes to suit himself only.

Considering the Labour seats the Brexit party is contesting, some will be safe and some marginal. Taking the traditional, safe Labour areas of the North East and South Wales, while the Labour party is strongly pro-EU, I ask myself why then did these areas vote to Leave the EU? Could it be they made an ill-informed, ill-considered decision? If the answer is no then shouldn’t they now be voting Conservative (on Brexit issue at least)?

Remember that the First-Past-The- Post election system disproportionally disadvantages small parties and for the previous UKIP (now Brexit party) 10% total vote was worth only 1 seat -wasted votes. But votes for the Brexit party may affect the results in marginal Labour seats but while this could favour the Conservatives it could do the opposite and disadvantage them.

3 The Green Party

The Green party and issues are much to the fore recently, particularly with young voters. However regarding the urgent aspect of carbon dioxide emissions I would say that a vote for the Green party is a wasted vote. Looking online at some of the facts of carbon dioxide emissions for 2017, the emissions attributed to the UK constitute about only 1% of the total and they have been dropping to this level over recent decades. The top 5 emitters are China 27.2%, USA 14.6%, India 6.8%, Russia 4.7% and Japan 3.3%. If you look at emissions per capita, the UK is 69th on the list compared to USA 17th, Russia 24th, Japan 32nd, China 44th, India 139th. Whatever we in the UK do to reduce our emissions is going to make little difference on its own. We can ask them, but can we expect the people of China and India, developing countries, to reduce their emissions? And if you appeal to the USA among the worst offenders, their President denies global warming exists despite the signs, including wild fires in their own affluent California. No, governmentally there is little we can do but individually (and that is what it really boils down to) people in places like the USA can do exactly the same things to combat global warming as individuals in the UK.

4 Re-run of the 2016 Brexit Referendum

This general election is bound to have a strong element of re-running the Brexit referendum. The 2016 referendum was conducted in 381 Voting Areas of which 270 voted to Leave and 129 voted Remain. Estimates have been done on the results by Constituencies and geographically there is a good correlation between these and the Voting Areas. Inspection of voting maps shows the following:

A In Scotland and Greater London the vote was decidedly to Remain. Comments regarding Scotland in my point 1. In Greater London in 2017 the Conservatives lost seats to Labour and Liberal Democrats and so the Conservatives’ job this time round is not only to persuade Remainers to change to Conservative Leavers but to retain existing Conservative seats as well.

B In Northern Ireland there was an East/West Leave/Remain split corresponding generally to Unionist/Nationalist demography.

C Most of the populated areas of Wales voted to Leave apart from in the very South East. Comments regarding South Wales and North East England in my point 2.

D In England, there were several `island’ areas which voted to Remain. Most significantly though there is a large, roughly triangular area in the South of England bounded by Gloucester, Cambridge and Brighton where the results were Remain or borderline Leave and in my opinion it is here that the result of the election will be decided. If you look at this area on a Constituency map for 2017 it is largely Conservative and comprises, electorally speaking, what I call `thinking voters’ (no disrespect to voters elsewhere). Here, some Remainers and Leavers who change their minds to Remain might decide to vote other than Conservative. On the other hand some Labour/LibDem Leavers might vote Conservative. Which will have the bigger effect?

5 Other Election Issues

Looking at the Labour and Conservative manifestos I find a stark contrast. The Conservative manifesto is brief, simple and believable. The Labour manifesto is extended and difficult to take in and I am inclined to believe it is not workable, attractive as some of the policies seem. However, with the increased focus there has been on politics recently, there may be more interest from young, idealistic people in voting Labour or Liberal Democrat which will not help the Conservatives.
As for Scotland it seems they want independence but they haven't been told the whole story by the SNP like who is going to pay for all the things the English tax payer covers they have been told the gas and oil will cover it but as the world is going to be using less fossil fuels in the future it seems to me it is only a short term fix so will be bankrupt in no time unless of course they plan to forget going green with the rest of us. It is time the people of Scotland where told the truth by the SNP. I am not Scottish but can see the SNP only have one agenda not good for a major party and should consuntrate on getting the economy going first instead of buying votes by overspending at the expense of the British tax payer.
 

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