A 2019 General Election Analysis

CommonSense

Active Member
This is my personal view of how things stand in the run up to the 2019 General Election which is largely a battle between the Conservatives and The Rest.

1 Scotland

It seems unlikely in Scotland that many people are going to change their Brexit minds. But prior to the Brexit referendum, Scotland was almost wholly SNP whereas later in the 2017 general election the SNP lost seats to the main parties. Could it be that some Scots are fed up with calls for another independence referendum? While the Scots may be Remainers, it can not be taken that they are all SNP supporters so there may be room here for SNP losses but only gains to the Conservatives will make a difference.

2 Brexit Party

The appeal of the Brexit party will be to Leavers who are actively seeking a No Deal Brexit, something which opinion says is very little favoured. The Brexit party’s decision not to contest currently Conservative seats as a concession to them seems to indicate that they are not wholly behind themselves which is not a very good endorsement of themselves. I put this down to Nigel Farage who reminds me of Clint Eastwood’s `High Plains Drifter’ -he’s very sure of himself, `paints the town red’ and comes and goes to suit himself only.

Considering the Labour seats the Brexit party is contesting, some will be safe and some marginal. Taking the traditional, safe Labour areas of the North East and South Wales, while the Labour party is strongly pro-EU, I ask myself why then did these areas vote to Leave the EU? Could it be they made an ill-informed, ill-considered decision? If the answer is no then shouldn’t they now be voting Conservative (on Brexit issue at least)?

Remember that the First-Past-The- Post election system disproportionally disadvantages small parties and for the previous UKIP (now Brexit party) 10% total vote was worth only 1 seat -wasted votes. But votes for the Brexit party may affect the results in marginal Labour seats but while this could favour the Conservatives it could do the opposite and disadvantage them.

3 The Green Party

The Green party and issues are much to the fore recently, particularly with young voters. However regarding the urgent aspect of carbon dioxide emissions I would say that a vote for the Green party is a wasted vote. Looking online at some of the facts of carbon dioxide emissions for 2017, the emissions attributed to the UK constitute about only 1% of the total and they have been dropping to this level over recent decades. The top 5 emitters are China 27.2%, USA 14.6%, India 6.8%, Russia 4.7% and Japan 3.3%. If you look at emissions per capita, the UK is 69th on the list compared to USA 17th, Russia 24th, Japan 32nd, China 44th, India 139th. Whatever we in the UK do to reduce our emissions is going to make little difference on its own. We can ask them, but can we expect the people of China and India, developing countries, to reduce their emissions? And if you appeal to the USA among the worst offenders, their President denies global warming exists despite the signs, including wild fires in their own affluent California. No, governmentally there is little we can do but individually (and that is what it really boils down to) people in places like the USA can do exactly the same things to combat global warming as individuals in the UK.

4 Re-run of the 2016 Brexit Referendum

This general election is bound to have a strong element of re-running the Brexit referendum. The 2016 referendum was conducted in 381 Voting Areas of which 270 voted to Leave and 129 voted Remain. Estimates have been done on the results by Constituencies and geographically there is a good correlation between these and the Voting Areas. Inspection of voting maps shows the following:

A In Scotland and Greater London the vote was decidedly to Remain. Comments regarding Scotland in my point 1. In Greater London in 2017 the Conservatives lost seats to Labour and Liberal Democrats and so the Conservatives’ job this time round is not only to persuade Remainers to change to Conservative Leavers but to retain existing Conservative seats as well.

B In Northern Ireland there was an East/West Leave/Remain split corresponding generally to Unionist/Nationalist demography.

C Most of the populated areas of Wales voted to Leave apart from in the very South East. Comments regarding South Wales and North East England in my point 2.

D In England, there were several `island’ areas which voted to Remain. Most significantly though there is a large, roughly triangular area in the South of England bounded by Gloucester, Cambridge and Brighton where the results were Remain or borderline Leave and in my opinion it is here that the result of the election will be decided. If you look at this area on a Constituency map for 2017 it is largely Conservative and comprises, electorally speaking, what I call `thinking voters’ (no disrespect to voters elsewhere). Here, some Remainers and Leavers who change their minds to Remain might decide to vote other than Conservative. On the other hand some Labour/LibDem Leavers might vote Conservative. Which will have the bigger effect?

5 Other Election Issues

Looking at the Labour and Conservative manifestos I find a stark contrast. The Conservative manifesto is brief, simple and believable. The Labour manifesto is extended and difficult to take in and I am inclined to believe it is not workable, attractive as some of the policies seem. However, with the increased focus there has been on politics recently, there may be more interest from young, idealistic people in voting Labour or Liberal Democrat which will not help the Conservatives.
 

EndlessWaves

Distinguished Member
However regarding the urgent aspect of carbon dioxide emissions I would say that a vote for the Green party is a wasted vote.

So you're saying one of the world's leading science and high technology nations has no ability to help in a crisis that requires developing new ways of doing things?

A big co-ordinated effort by an economy the size of the UK's can have a major impact on world technology. Think of everything developed as a result of the NASA program in 1960s America, or the 80s electronics boom in Japan

The idea that there's nothing we can do as a country is absurd.

And that's before you consider the economic benefits of leading the way in an area the rest of the world will have to adopt.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
But as I said, the UK is producing only 1% of the total world emissions of CO2. Supposing that we in the UK created zero emissions for the next year -this would only make a tiny difference. What is needed is action by individuals. On the same site where I got that information there's a graph showing that emissions are increasing each decade that passes and this is for 2 reasons:
1 -the world population is increasing.
2 -the whole world is developing and it is obvious that this development is causing the per capita emissions to increase. The amount of energy expended per person has increased because of this development. For example the amount of energy used per person travelling by car is many more times what it was in the days when there were no cars and this is not just in petrol usage. I'm not saying that the advancements that have been made are wrong and I am not suggesting that we should go back to the stone age. But we need to do things in a way that doesn't require MORE energy to make changes. We need to scale back to the more economical ways of living and that can only be done by individuals. For example, if every American who drove a `gas guzzler' swapped it for a more economical car that would be a huge step. But that would mean American car companies would suffer so they would resist such a move. Business is always trying to persuade us that we want or need what they are offering and it's not out of consideration for the environment but for profit.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
For example, if every American who drove a `gas guzzler' swapped it for a more economical car that would be a huge step.
Remind me where Tesla is based.
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
This is my personal view of how things stand in the run up to the 2019 General Election which is largely a battle between the Conservatives and The Rest.

1 Scotland

It seems unlikely in Scotland that many people are going to change their Brexit minds. But prior to the Brexit referendum, Scotland was almost wholly SNP whereas later in the 2017 general election the SNP lost seats to the main parties. Could it be that some Scots are fed up with calls for another independence referendum? While the Scots may be Remainers, it can not be taken that they are all SNP supporters so there may be room here for SNP losses but only gains to the Conservatives will make a difference.

2 Brexit Party

The appeal of the Brexit party will be to Leavers who are actively seeking a No Deal Brexit, something which opinion says is very little favoured. The Brexit party’s decision not to contest currently Conservative seats as a concession to them seems to indicate that they are not wholly behind themselves which is not a very good endorsement of themselves. I put this down to Nigel Farage who reminds me of Clint Eastwood’s `High Plains Drifter’ -he’s very sure of himself, `paints the town red’ and comes and goes to suit himself only.

Considering the Labour seats the Brexit party is contesting, some will be safe and some marginal. Taking the traditional, safe Labour areas of the North East and South Wales, while the Labour party is strongly pro-EU, I ask myself why then did these areas vote to Leave the EU? Could it be they made an ill-informed, ill-considered decision? If the answer is no then shouldn’t they now be voting Conservative (on Brexit issue at least)?

Remember that the First-Past-The- Post election system disproportionally disadvantages small parties and for the previous UKIP (now Brexit party) 10% total vote was worth only 1 seat -wasted votes. But votes for the Brexit party may affect the results in marginal Labour seats but while this could favour the Conservatives it could do the opposite and disadvantage them.

3 The Green Party

The Green party and issues are much to the fore recently, particularly with young voters. However regarding the urgent aspect of carbon dioxide emissions I would say that a vote for the Green party is a wasted vote. Looking online at some of the facts of carbon dioxide emissions for 2017, the emissions attributed to the UK constitute about only 1% of the total and they have been dropping to this level over recent decades. The top 5 emitters are China 27.2%, USA 14.6%, India 6.8%, Russia 4.7% and Japan 3.3%. If you look at emissions per capita, the UK is 69th on the list compared to USA 17th, Russia 24th, Japan 32nd, China 44th, India 139th. Whatever we in the UK do to reduce our emissions is going to make little difference on its own. We can ask them, but can we expect the people of China and India, developing countries, to reduce their emissions? And if you appeal to the USA among the worst offenders, their President denies global warming exists despite the signs, including wild fires in their own affluent California. No, governmentally there is little we can do but individually (and that is what it really boils down to) people in places like the USA can do exactly the same things to combat global warming as individuals in the UK.

4 Re-run of the 2016 Brexit Referendum

This general election is bound to have a strong element of re-running the Brexit referendum. The 2016 referendum was conducted in 381 Voting Areas of which 270 voted to Leave and 129 voted Remain. Estimates have been done on the results by Constituencies and geographically there is a good correlation between these and the Voting Areas. Inspection of voting maps shows the following:

A In Scotland and Greater London the vote was decidedly to Remain. Comments regarding Scotland in my point 1. In Greater London in 2017 the Conservatives lost seats to Labour and Liberal Democrats and so the Conservatives’ job this time round is not only to persuade Remainers to change to Conservative Leavers but to retain existing Conservative seats as well.

B In Northern Ireland there was an East/West Leave/Remain split corresponding generally to Unionist/Nationalist demography.

C Most of the populated areas of Wales voted to Leave apart from in the very South East. Comments regarding South Wales and North East England in my point 2.

D In England, there were several `island’ areas which voted to Remain. Most significantly though there is a large, roughly triangular area in the South of England bounded by Gloucester, Cambridge and Brighton where the results were Remain or borderline Leave and in my opinion it is here that the result of the election will be decided. If you look at this area on a Constituency map for 2017 it is largely Conservative and comprises, electorally speaking, what I call `thinking voters’ (no disrespect to voters elsewhere). Here, some Remainers and Leavers who change their minds to Remain might decide to vote other than Conservative. On the other hand some Labour/LibDem Leavers might vote Conservative. Which will have the bigger effect?

5 Other Election Issues

Looking at the Labour and Conservative manifestos I find a stark contrast. The Conservative manifesto is brief, simple and believable. The Labour manifesto is extended and difficult to take in and I am inclined to believe it is not workable, attractive as some of the policies seem. However, with the increased focus there has been on politics recently, there may be more interest from young, idealistic people in voting Labour or Liberal Democrat which will not help the Conservatives.

So much like anyone on this forum , your mind was made up prior to the calling of the GE and this post would be better served in the GE thread as it adds nothing new, apart from your own personall opinion .
 

CommonSense

Active Member
But not UK individuals then ?
`No, governmentally there is little we can do but individually (and that is what it really boils down to) people in places like the USA can do exactly the same things to combat global warming as individuals in the UK'. -Where does this statement make exception for UK individuals?
 

CommonSense

Active Member
So much like anyone on this forum , your mind was made up prior to the calling of the GE and this post would be better served in the GE thread as it adds nothing new, apart from your own personall opinion .
Actually my mind isn't made up. I am leaning towards Conservative but it would be nice if I thought that if they get back in they would show more humanity. Jeremy Corbyn is promising everything but Boris Johnson is a cold, hard merchant. As to the GE thread, I've looked at it and it's just a series of tit for tat, inane comments with very little considered thought at all. I posted my thread which is based on accepted facts available on the net, hoping for considered replies. Of course I can't predict the election result but the survey conducted on one of the threads shows the Conservatives well ahead. It's similar in the Polls. The purpose of my analysis was to suggest that it might not actually be a done deal and to maybe stimulate some intelligent response without reference to random links.
 

goingoingong

Distinguished Member
Actually my mind isn't made up. I am leaning towards Conservative but it would be nice if I thought that if they get back in they would show more humanity. Jeremy Corbyn is promising everything but Boris Johnson is a cold, hard merchant. As to the GE thread, I've looked at it and it's just a series of tit for tat, inane comments with very little considered thought at all. I posted my thread which is based on accepted facts available on the net, hoping for considered replies. Of course I can't predict the election result but the survey conducted on one of the threads shows the Conservatives well ahead. It's similar in the Polls. The purpose of my analysis was to suggest that it might not actually be a done deal and to maybe stimulate some intelligent response without reference to random links.
As one of those making 'inane' comments in that thread I've little to add here.
But I'd suggest you read this article by Peter Osborne if your mind isn't made up

I’ve been a loyal Conservative voter. Until very recently, I’d exclusively worked for Conservative-leaning publications: the Telegraph, Mail, London Evening Standard, Express and Spectator. Most of my friends and relations are Conservative. But I cannot vote Conservative tomorrow.

Something horrible has happened. The Conservative party lies. It cheats. It bullies. It’s not the wise, gentle, decent party of the postwar era. I wonder whether Boris Johnson and his squalid associates are Conservatives at all

Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative | Peter Oborne
 

CommonSense

Active Member
As one of those making 'inane' comments in that thread I've little to add here.
But I'd suggest you read this article by Peter Osborne if your mind isn't made up

I’ve been a loyal Conservative voter. Until very recently, I’d exclusively worked for Conservative-leaning publications: the Telegraph, Mail, London Evening Standard, Express and Spectator. Most of my friends and relations are Conservative. But I cannot vote Conservative tomorrow.

Something horrible has happened. The Conservative party lies. It cheats. It bullies. It’s not the wise, gentle, decent party of the postwar era. I wonder whether Boris Johnson and his squalid associates are Conservatives at all

Boris Johnson wants to destroy the Britain I love. I cannot vote Conservative | Peter Oborne
Thanks for that reply. I agree that reading such articles causes revulsion at the thought. But equally there are probably similar articles about Jeremy Corbyn. And when I referred to inane comments in this forum, many of the members seem to me to be replicating the behaviour of our politicians -scoring points off each other with ridiculous comments or supporting each other in cliques in the same way. But the reality is that individuals have to make a choice (and at least we have a democracy here) and leaders are very often not nice people. They have to be thick skinned and abrasive to be leaders.
And the basic choice this time round is: do we support a leader who has a definite desire to enact the result of the Brexit referendum or do we support a leader who if he has his way will prolong the Brexit limbo? Supposing that Jeremy Corbyn got a majority government. Since he is not proposing to give people who want to leave the EU with no deal that choice (which is a valid option) he is disenfranchising those people. Also he will be signalling to the EU that he is not serious about leaving and giving them a weapon to soften the deal in their favour or even persuade us not to leave at all. What it boils down to is that the people have already made the choice to leave the EU and whether or not they made a wise decision they should abide by it and enact it and learn from the experience. If they don't the UK will prove itself to be a nation of vacillators who can be manipulated by other nations.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
Since he is not proposing to give people who want to leave the EU with no deal that choice (which is a valid option

As much as many who supported the Leave vote have said that there was never a specific option to only leave with, “a deal”, there was also no option to leave without one. Leaving the EU was the choice, not how that is enacted.

In fact, Johnson isn’t giving people the choice to leave with no deal either, as he’s already put his withdrawal agreement to Parliament, and it was voted through the first reading, it was him who then pulled it.
 

CommonSense

Active Member
As much as many who supported the Leave vote have said that there was never a specific option to only leave with, “a deal”, there was also no option to leave without one. Leaving the EU was the choice, not how that is enacted.

In fact, Johnson isn’t giving people the choice to leave with no deal either, as he’s already put his withdrawal agreement to Parliament, and it was voted through the first reading, it was him who then pulled it.
I couldn't agree with you more on your second sentence. But since the choice was to Leave we have to leave one way or another and that is either with an agreed arrangement or No Deal if no agreement is reached (and that could still happen even if Boris Johnson is successful and we sign up to his new deal because there would still be negotiations with the EU to be done by the end of 2020). I agree with you that Boris Johnson, having laboured his way to his new deal, seems to have faltered at the last post. I can only think that he saw fit to seek confirmation by calling the GE. But my original point is that under a majority Labour government, no-dealers would be disenfranchised by Jeremy Corbyn's proposed referendum. There would always be the feeling that Brexit was only half done and many people would resent this.
 

weaviemx5

Distinguished Member
But my original point is that under a majority Labour government, no-dealers would be disenfranchised by Jeremy Corbyn's proposed referendum. There would always be the feeling that Brexit was only half done and many people would resent this.

I'm not really sure I understand your point about "no-dealers"? Johnson campaigned for the PM role under the plan to secure a deal with the EU, and has since campaigned throughout his tenure, and the current GE, to leave with a deal too so he is surely also neglecting those who want to leave with no deal?
 

CommonSense

Active Member
I'm not really sure I understand your point about "no-dealers"? Johnson campaigned for the PM role under the plan to secure a deal with the EU, and has since campaigned throughout his tenure, and the current GE, to leave with a deal too so he is surely also neglecting those who want to leave with no deal?
By no-dealers I mean people like Nigel Farage who want to leave with a clean break. Mostly everyone else wants some sort of negotiated tie with the EU. It's like two people getting divorced who still want some contact or relationship or to retain something from their partner in marriage. No, in this Brexit `divorce,' the Government has to find an agreement to satisfy at least a majority of the people involved and that was being done through Parliament. If a majority in Parliament wanted to leave with No Deal then it would be done.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
How did you vote?
 

The latest video from AVForums

Podcast: LG C1 OLED + JBL Synthesis SDR-35 First Thoughts, plus TV Show & Disc Reviews & more
Subscribe to our YouTube channel

Latest News

What's new on Netflix UK for June 2021
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
AVForums Podcast: 12th May 2021
  • By Phil Hinton
  • Published
Bluesound unveils new generation of Node and Powernode audio players
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Naim launches Uniti Atom Headphone Edition
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published
Sennheiser announces flagship IE 900 earphones
  • By Andy Bassett
  • Published

Full fat HDMI teeshirts

Support AVForums with Patreon

Top Bottom