2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

tom 2000

Distinguished Member
There seems too be a lack of understanding on here about Expert Opinion. Any opinion given may turn out to be incorrect but that does not mean it was incorrectly given at the time.
 

inkinoo

Well-known Member
There seems too be a lack of understanding on here about Expert Opinion. Any opinion given may turn out to be incorrect but that does not mean it was incorrectly given at the time.

Agree but if most others, including the government scientists, say one thing is happening and you say the other, it does call into question your ability to look at data and trends if that turns out to be totally wrong.
 

tom 2000

Distinguished Member
Agree but if most others, including the government scientists, say one thing is happening and you say the other, it does call into question your ability to look at data and trends if that turns out to be totally wrong.
I do not agree. I doubt that even someone of equal qualifications to Professor Heneghan would call his ability into question. They might question his findings and disagree with them and that is legitimate.
 

inkinoo

Well-known Member
I do not agree. I doubt that even someone of equal qualifications to Professor Heneghan would call his ability into question. They might question his findings and disagree with them and that is legitimate.

He didn’t make a prediction, he looked at the data available and went against the government scientists. And got it completely wrong.

Imagine if we had listened and assumed there was no second wave, also assumed in November when he said everything had flatlined. It would have been chaos.

As with all modern debate, people would rather die than admit they have made a mistake.
 

Sammyez

Well-known Member
He didn’t make a prediction, he looked at the data available and went against the government scientists. And got it completely wrong.

Imagine if we had listened and assumed there was no second wave, also assumed in November when he said everything had flatlined. It would have been chaos.

As with all modern debate, people would rather die than admit they have made a mistake.
Indeed. This article in the BMJ last September looked at the differing views.
As you’ve stated the ability to acknowledge errors in judgment appears to be lacking.

 

joust

Well-known Member
C4 Dispatches programme tomorrow at 8pm looks at the pandemic's financial cost and what it means for the future

‘Britain's £400bn Covid Bill: Who Will Pay?’

Did anyone watch this program? If so, what was their conclusion?
 

finbaar

Active Member
It was interesting reading through the BMJ articles. I think it is fairly clear that the UK government did not supress the spread of the virus either by targeting high risk groups or by widespread lockdowns. Our cases and death figures are broadly in line with most countries in Europe that have had several different strategies - France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Croatia etc. And by many figures we are doing worse. So can we say a certain strategy has succeeded? I think that this is the wrong time to answer that, we will look back in the coming years and (hopefully) have effective policies agreed by all of the political parties and the NHS so we can respond quickly and effectively.
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
There's always been a split between suppression across the whole of society (SAGE) and those who were for suppression and isolating vulnerable groups (NON GOVERNMENT).
Data was used to support both stances.
I personally supported isolating small groups and letting the economy run, although I can see the NHS would not have coped with the influx of patients.


The dispatches program uses the town of Burnley to highlight the effects of lockdown on one local economy. Although Burnley has always been quite run down. I'd question the use of such a town.

The government has two choices, invest or tax the economy to claw back the printed money (The program uses the term borrowed).
Personally I think it's too early to be thinking of tax rises, they should encourage investment and spending. However the pandemic isn't over yet despite the encouraging data from the vaccine rollout and the vaccines effects.

A tad premature really.

I feel for sorry for my brother catching Covid, right at what looks like the final stages.
 

Sammyez

Well-known Member
How people understand these numbers affects how they think about the vaccine, whether they get it and how they behave after getting it, all of which have implications for the pandemic on a larger scale...

'COVID-19 vaccines: What does 95% efficacy actually mean?'

'It doesn't mean 5% of vaccinated people get infected'

'One common misunderstanding is that 95% efficacy means that in the Pfizer clinical trial, 5% of vaccinated people got COVID. But that's not true; the actual percentage of vaccinated people in the Pfizer (and Moderna) trials who got COVID-19 was about a hundred times less than that: 0.04%'
'What the 95% actually means is that vaccinated people had a 95% lower risk of getting COVID-19 compared with the control group participants, who weren't vaccinated. In other words, vaccinated people in the Pfizer clinical trial were 20 times less likely than the control group to get COVID-19'


 

iamsludge

Active Member
Just had a letter from son’s school about the Lateral Flow Testing they are doing in school from March 8th.

Made me ponder just how many asymptomatic cases will be uncovered in March, I would expect case numbers to increase given that the last figure I read was 53% of cases being asymptomatic.

I also wonder if people are going to kick off about being told to isolate (time off work) when they have no symptoms. The letter I received says Test & Trace will instruct the whole household to isolate if a child is positive:

“This result will be recorded on the NHS test and trace register. Your household will need to enter household isolation and await instructions from NHS test and trace regarding the duration of this and to ascertain any other close contacts (outside of your household) that your child may have had.”

If I’m honest, I think the government are a bit out of order instructing teachers to do this testing.
 

Sammyez

Well-known Member
A8F40DBE-3A29-415F-A10A-331FFCB72CDD.png
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
Depressing to see today that some parts of the media ( more so talking heads ) are questioning if the government is now being to cautious on unlocking restrictions.
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Depressing to see today that some parts of the media ( more so talking heads ) are questioning if the government is now being to cautious on unlocking restrictions.

Basically because we're not opening up tomorrow and having a big jolly. As once again to some the virus has gone, it's no threat anymore, no need for us to be prisoners, yada yada. The media is naturally picking up on these people and providing a platform.

Others have more legitimate concerns about their businesses etc of course, but I'm not sure what they were expecting really to be honest. It was always going to have to be a slow process, there was no just opening everywhere up and cracking back on with normality. This is where the government will have to continue providing support.

My mind boggles at times trying to comprehend other's comprehension.
 
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raduv1

Distinguished Member
Basically because we're not opening up tomorrow and having a big jolly. As once again to some the virus has gone, it's no threat anymore, no need for us to be prisoners, yada yada. The media is naturally picking up on these people and providing a platform.

Others have more legitimate concerns about their businesses etc of course, but I'm not sure what they were expecting really to be honest. It was always going to have to be a slow process, there was no just opening everywhere up and cracking back on with normality. This is where the government will have to continue providing support.

My mind boggles at times trying to comprehend other's comprehension.
But why give them air time ? We still have similar numbers in hospital as we did when we went into the March lockdown . For once I agree with this government approach but it seems that because things ( for once ) are looking up. Tortoise always beats the hare .
 

raduv1

Distinguished Member
The furlough sceme will have to be extended I believe . Many pubs , restaurants will evaluate takings and remain closed if only outdoor dining is allowed first off.
 

Ruperts slippers

Distinguished Member
Best wishes to them.
They've both now tested positive.
Both ok, general flue like symptoms, temp, cough, tight chest.
Said he felt a bit sick, then he told me he'd ordered a Greggs for delivery, serves him right.
Who orders Greggs, honestly.

I went for another test on Tuesday morn came back negative, It's nearly 10 days since contact, so hopefully I've dodged the virus, feel a cold like symptoms, cough, a bit warm...

I've cancelled my maintenance contract meeting in a nursing home too risky, and all other work can be done by the subby for now.
 
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Sammyez

Well-known Member

‘Why do antibodies fade after a COVID-19 infection, and will the same thing happen with vaccines'

'The goal of the COVID-19 vaccines being rolled out worldwide is to stimulate our immune systems into creating a protective response against the coronavirus, particularly by generating antibodies. These antibodies then circulate in our blood until needed in the future, attacking and removing the coronavirus quickly from our bodies if we become infected.

'The speed with which the scientific and medical communities have developed and tested these new vaccines has been extraordinary. However, this short timescale leaves us with some outstanding questions'

'Key among these is how long the protection we receive from vaccination, or indeed from infection with the virus itself, will last. We know, for example, that antibody levels drop quite quickly following a COVID-19 infection'


 

Sammyez

Well-known Member
Update from the Good Law Project relating the court case against the government regarding the dubious Covid contracts. It seems common sense has prevailed with the judiciary but, the GLP could still be short of funds...

'We are pleased to be able to tell you that the Court has granted a cost-capping order in our judicial review over the award of huge PPE contracts, without advertisement or competition, to Pestfix (a pest control company), Ayanda (an opaque private fund owned through a tax haven) and Clandeboye (a confectionery wholesaler).

'After Government said it would cost an unbelievable £1million pounds to defend the case, we asked the Court to cap our exposure to Government’s legal costs at £100k'

'Instead, the Court has granted a cost-capping order of £250k. It means that if we lose the case, we are liable to pay a quarter of a million pounds to Government, as well as needing to cover our own legal costs'

'In awarding the cost-capping order, the Judge seemed to agree:

All citizens are likely to have an interest in whether or not the procurement on the part of the government is done using good governance procedures and integrity. And therefore there is a real wider public interest that has been represented by the claimant group, which is a not-for-profit group, in bringing this challenge.”

 

Ste7en

Distinguished Member
It was interesting reading through the BMJ articles. I think it is fairly clear that the UK government did not supress the spread of the virus either by targeting high risk groups or by widespread lockdowns. Our cases and death figures are broadly in line with most countries in Europe that have had several different strategies - France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, Croatia etc. And by many figures we are doing worse. So can we say a certain strategy has succeeded? I think that this is the wrong time to answer that, we will look back in the coming years and (hopefully) have effective policies agreed by all of the political parties and the NHS so we can respond quickly and effectively.

I haven't had a chance to read the article yet but does it factor in free-range morons who refused to follow the guidance?

After weeks of lockdown (and cases dropping) up here (Durham) we had an almost 100 percent increase in cases a couple of weeks ago (but it has dropped again now).
 

Har-One

Member
Money cannot eradicate nonsense.

Paltrow recently wrote on her blog that contracting Covid-19 had left her with "some long-tail fatigue and brain fog".
She said a "functional medicine practitioner" had recommended an "intuitive fasting" healing regime.

 

Sloppy Bob

Distinguished Member
Gwyneth in "full of sh!*£" shocker.

I'm actually surprised she doesn't believe you can avoid contracting COVID if you eat a specific diet that costs $800+ per day.
 

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