2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

Ste7en

Distinguished Member
Well, I think it is well and truly safe to say we are seeing the start of a second wave.

Could be a post weekend blip, but still, 3,991 new cases. At this rate we'll be seeing the same new case figures we were during the peak in a week or two :(

I wish it would just bugger off now.
 

vu599536

Active Member
Oadby and Wigston Borough Council has decided as from tomorrow (17th) all the local parks will be on a curfew between 5pm and 7am. Have no idea how its going to be enforced as one of the parks is open on one side of the road Google Maps and some don't have gates on them.

People are moaning that they can't take their dogs for a walk after work.
 

fat jez

Distinguished Member
Oadby and Wigston Borough Council has decided as from tomorrow (17th) all the local parks will be on a curfew between 5pm and 7am. Have no idea how its going to be enforced as one of the parks is open on one side of the road Google Maps and some don't have gates on them.

People are moaning that they can't take their dogs for a walk after work.
That does seem a bit strange, given the open air is generally considered "safer." Might make sense if they were applying the rule of 6 or limiting access to members of one household (e.g. for dog walking).
 

Chocci

Member
You are right :blush:. My apologies. 180 case was False positive after the endoscopy test but not how you calculated. My other points are still valid and your assumption to apply FPR% x total test/sample is still wrong. The wiki example was to show definition of terms and evaluating a screen test with gold standard or how to determine SN/SP. Application and interpretation of test results is slightly different. The wiki page is not very clear as they have one sentence stating in medical diagnosis eg the test is to identify true positive/negative.

Let's do very simplified version run of test kit from wiki which is already evaluated to another sample of 1000 people and 80 are tested as positive. At least 53 or 54 (80 x 0.67) out of 80 will be true positive. Rest 26/27 either are true +ve or false +ve. Similarly at least 837 people out of 920 are true -ve while 83 could be either true or false -ve. Specificity rules out -ve cases with good confidence and as wiki test has 0.55% FN/TN ratio, finding +ve case from 83 suspected -ve case is less than 1. You can rule out all -ve cases at this point and focus on 27 suspect cases to find out false +ve.

check figure 2 on Interpreting covid19 test result BMJ.
So if the pcrtest has a 5% fpr then it's 5% of the 4,000 new positive cases today that are false positives , not 5% of the 225,000 tests?
 

Chocci

Member
Well, I think it is well and truly safe to say we are seeing the start of a second wave.

Could be a post weekend blip, but still, 3,991 new cases. At this rate we'll be seeing the same new case figures we were during the peak in a week or two :(

I wish it would just bugger off now.
Testing is being concentrated in high r rate areas now and hard to get a test for Joe public. Cases will always go through the roof with that strategy.

I tried for another test yesterday and once again, I was expected to do a 550 mile round trip from Brighton to bolton or get on a ferry to the Isle of Wight (£80 for the ferry alone)! All our local testing stations appear to have been closed down
 

fat jez

Distinguished Member
Testing is being concentrated in high r rate areas now and hard to get a test for Joe public. Cases will always go through the roof with that strategy.

I tried for another test yesterday and once again, I was expected to do a 550 mile round trip from Brighton to bolton or get on a ferry to the Isle of Wight (£80 for the ferry alone)! All our local testing stations appear to have been closed down
Try giving your address as Bolton and see if you get offered a test in Brighton?
 

Ste7en

Distinguished Member
Testing is being concentrated in high r rate areas now and hard to get a test for Joe public. Cases will always go through the roof with that strategy.

I tried for another test yesterday and once again, I was expected to do a 550 mile round trip from Brighton to bolton or get on a ferry to the Isle of Wight (£80 for the ferry alone)! All our local testing stations appear to have been closed down
The mobile testing stations were great, but they have scaled them back. We got tested because we were showing symptoms, sort of. Mrs was negative I was inconclusive.

I'd say it is actually harder to get tested now isn't it?
 

vu599536

Active Member
Try giving your address as Bolton and see if you get offered a test in Brighton?
Someone - their employer requires frequent testing went through their address book of family and friends to put in postcodes for them to get a test nearer to them. Though do the centre staff ask people to confirm their address?

They got a test 25 miles away by putting a brother in law’s address, 130 miles away
 

vu599536

Active Member
That does seem a bit strange, given the open air is generally considered "safer." Might make sense if they were applying the rule of 6 or limiting access to members of one household (e.g. for dog walking).
Think it’s to stop the yoof hanging about. Though will hang outside my work instead. With a few running in (without masks) randomly swearing at us and customers.

Not looking forward to going back to work
 

Lancia34

Distinguished Member
How are we expected to take any of the phe stats seriously? Once again for the 6th day in a row, 141 people admitted to hospital. It was stuck on 126 for most of last week.


You looking at the actual graph as that shows different numbers for each day, same with the data itself on there? Must be just that main number on the first page that isn’t updating properly.
 

Chocci

Member
You looking at the actual graph as that shows different numbers for each day, same with the data itself on there? Must be just that main number on the first page that isn’t updating properly.
I look at both. The main page gets stuck for days but the detail page also shows far more admissions than makes sense when looking at the total in hospital count less deaths. Think it showed 250 admissions the other day but the total only went up by 50
 

starfarer

Well-known Member
So if the pcrtest has a 5% fpr then it's 5% of the 4,000 new positive cases today that are false positives , not 5% of the 225,000 tests?
partly yes. Let's not use FPR but specificity of 95%. On other kind of tests, people are first screened with high sensitivity test and those with positive outcomes are followed up with high specificity test to confirm disease.

PCR test detects a viral RNA (sensitivity) and detects to confirm if this RNA is of particular virus (specific). Under lab conditions if you run 100 samples without any viral RNA, in theory should result in 100% negative or 100 samples with mixed viruses should result in 100% positive. 100% sensitivity. 100 samples with covid19 viral RNA should result in 100% positive or 100 samples with viral RNA of other viruses like flu, cold etc should result in 100% negative. 100% specificity ie detecting a RNA of one particular virus.

A PCR of 95% specificity will either miss 5% (false -ve) or incorrectly detect 5% (false +ve) from sample of mixed viral RNA. Assume 100% sensitivity which will rule out 5% false -ve. Of 4000 positive cases, highly likely that 5% of those may have been FP = 200.

Of course simplified for explanation and not sure how best to write. Better to google if you're interested in knowing more or on accurate workings.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
I swear I must be on ignore, since @vu599536 never seems to acknowledge what I post :(
Sorry. I have been away past few days.
That's odd, you were posting about your mole yesterday, and again today.

Got a mole that has changed shape and colour past few months. It needs a doctor to do a physical look, feel of it. It would be useless to do a phone call about it.

I wonder how many people will be misdiagnosed with anything serious due to unable to see GP face to face.
Don’t think they will class my mole an emergency!
It needs a face to face as mentioned GP needs to see and feel mole in the naked eye
You first asked on Monday.

I have a mole that may need investigation as changed. Need a GP to see and feel the mole.
Have you considered picking up a phone and asking your GP?

BTW:

This was the most interesting post from yesterday:

I have cancelled car insurance then re-apply as a new customer to get things like free Karcher car washer, better discount etc
How long have you been away for?
 
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fat jez

Distinguished Member
What have I started? :rotfl:

I only commented because in addition to my paid job in IT, I have a second unpaid job on the events team with Cancer Research UK and therefore I am probably somewhat hyper-sensitive to the risks of cancer.
 

paulyoung666

Distinguished Member
So the northeast is getting partially locked down , I’m in the northeast but I’m not sure if I am part of the lockdown , can anyone point to somewhere official that will tell me for certain , please .....
 

Ste7en

Distinguished Member
So the northeast is getting partially locked down , I’m in the northeast but I’m not sure if I am part of the lockdown , can anyone point to somewhere official that will tell me for certain , please .....
Yep, new lockdown restrictions will be announced today for Newcastle, Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Gateshead, County Durham and Sunderland. No mention of Teesside etc. just yet.

Local councils requested it (or the power to impose it, I can't remember which) due to concern over rising infections and the state of testing.

Pubs and restaurants will have a 10:00pm curfew and no mingling between households from midnight tonight. Further announcements coming later today (suspected to include no sporting events and no holidays).

Of course, schools and work will remain open so I've no idea how that'll work out.
 
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vu599536

Active Member
Do you think the govt should list the new cases in care homes and other places where the people cannot go out? If 90% if new cases in an area are from care homes, then its purely wrong that the people in the area should be given more restrictions.
 

vu599536

Active Member
That's odd, you were posting about your mole yesterday, and again today.







You first asked on Monday.



Have you considered picking up a phone and asking your GP?

BTW:

This was the most interesting post from yesterday:



How long have you been away for?
Wasn't given the full attention to the posts as I wanted to.
 

paulyoung666

Distinguished Member
Yep, new lockdown restrictions will be announced today for Newcastle, Northumberland, North Tyneside, South Tyneside, Gateshead, County Durham and Sunderland. No mention of Teesside etc. just yet.

Local councils requested it (or the power to impose it, I can't remember which) due to concern over rising infections and the state of testing.

Pubs and restaurants will have a 10:00pm curfew and no mingling between households from midnight tonight. Further announcements coming later today (suspected to include no sporting events and no holidays).

Of course, schools and work will remain open so I've no idea how that'll work out.
yes , but teesside is in the north east , and I if I have to choose a county for postal reasons I am in durham not Cleveland or teesside , more confusion , not that I am the slightest bit interested in going to any pubs bars or clubs whatsoever , 2 close to me have shut for covid reasons , one came out with reassurance that no customers or front of house staff could possibly have come into contact with him , really , previously I have seen kitchen staff wandering through the dining room quite happily .....
 

Ste7en

Distinguished Member
yes , but teesside is in the north east , and I if I have to choose a county for postal reasons I am in durham not Cleveland or teesside , more confusion , not that I am the slightest bit interested in going to any pubs bars or clubs whatsoever , 2 close to me have shut for covid reasons , one came out with reassurance that no customers or front of house staff could possibly have come into contact with him , really , previously I have seen kitchen staff wandering through the dining room quite happily .....
Despite what the news is reporting it isn't the whole of the North East, just the areas listed. But who knows, that could change.

If your postcode starts DH you are in County Durham.
 

vu599536

Active Member
Rang GP, got call 30-35 mins after ringing them. Been told to email photos of mole in question. It’s such an awkward position to photo the mole. Try to get one showing it’s raised
 

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