2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

GarryF

Well-known Member
The thing is the 100+ English deaths barely raises an eyebrow in the media or in here now, it's like it's been accepted that this is the level that's acceptable, it's absolutely tragic. Do you think if a plane crashed killing 150 people every single day we'd just shrug our shoulders and move on? But that's what's happening

Apparently there hasn't been a sage meeting in weeks and the topic of discussion over the weekend was the oaf doing a press up. Yet there are folk here defending these idiots to the hilt, this country is absolutely bonkers
900 people get cancer each day
Eventually half survive and half die, every day.

So 450 people die each day from cancer.

What's happened to the 450 people that should live x 100 days since lock down. = 45,000 who should survive but now might not. Maybe some have been seen and are getting urgent treatment, but what I've been reading is large parts of the NHS are shut down

Ok, maybe only half of the 45k will die early now, so 22k deaths from cancer. But are these deaths saving 10 years of life, 20 years of life? This is vs the average age of a covid death which is 80+

I posted a while back about organ transplants, dropped from 250 a month to 100, lets say that's 600 people over 4 months sentenced to death, I fear what suicide figures will be too.

surely the goal here should be least total loss of life in years, (a 20 year old is worth 50-60 years of life vs an 85 year old worth ??)

It's a nasty business but Isn't that the job of the epidemiologists? Everyone now is an arm chair expert and knows better than Chris Whitty etc who spent decades studying this stuff.
 

acatweasel

Well-known Member
I wonder if he still takes his hydroxychloroquine.

Is anybody surprised? Mind you, looking at the way the figures are going, they could be the country with the most need.
Bragging rights intitiative.
 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
I wonder if he still takes his hydroxychloroquine.

Hydroxychloroquine is back on the radar again

 

mcbainne

Distinguished Member
Care to share your math on that?

I'll apply your formula to Scotland, based on this info
Coronavirus in Scotland: How many cases are there?
Scotland was hitting over 80 deaths a day for more than a month through April ( on certain days of the week)
Let me pick one of those days and I get
26 weeks x7 day x 80 = 15000 more deaths in Scotland by the end of the year.

I suspect your formula is in error.

For info
155 reported fatalities today in comparison to 171 236 289 326 on previous Tuesdays.
Are you deliberately trying to be obtuse Garry, it's quite clear i was referencing current numbers. Extrapolating one of Scotlands highest daily death figures from two and a half months ago until the end of the year is just ridiculous even for you and the crusade you seem to be on

155 happens to be just under the average for the whole of June and that seems to be a level we're struggling to get under consistently where we appear to have flatlined. It's this figure that gets us close to the additional 30k deaths if it's extended out. With the way it's spreading again and the Leicester lockdown and others areas looking like they'll have to as well as announced this morning it's worrying that we simply don't have a grip of this

The fact you and others have responded to my post with the usual it's here to stay and people would have been dying anyway lines just proves my point, we are in this quite bazaar situation where many are quite happy to brush it all under the carpet despite our daily death total being broadly comparable to the combined total of much of europe
 

acatweasel

Well-known Member
I'm backing a combination of lockdown, removing mass gatherings in enclosed spaces, handwashing practice, good weather and transferable resistance from previous coronavirus infections getting us over that first peak. Can't believe that 20% resistance is enough to stop it.
But it ain't over yet, and I'm wondering what will happen when the pubs/clubs/football stadiums and bad weather reappears. I'm staying in for a while yet, with a hat on. This one: ⛑
 

John Simon

Well-known Member
I'm backing a combination of lockdown, removing mass gatherings in enclosed spaces, handwashing practice, good weather and transferable resistance from previous coronavirus infections getting us over that first peak. Can't believe that 20% resistance is enough to stop it.
But it ain't over yet, and I'm wondering what will happen when the pubs/clubs/football stadiums and bad weather reappears. I'm staying in for a while yet, with a hat on. This one: ⛑
If that 20% are the most active in the population eg supermarket workers/NHS/food processing etc. then it does make sense
 

fat jez

Well-known Member
So today I got a text message addressed to me by name from my local NHS Health Board. The message advised me the results of my Covid-19 test had come back negative. Which would be good, but I've not had a test.

I have had blood taken twice in the last few weeks, where they were checking organ function and also for infection in my kidneys, but I'm wondering if they are automatically including Covid-19 in any broad range of tests carried out?

I plan to phone my surgery tomorrow and ask!
Phoned them, they knew nothing about it and said I’d have been swabbed at a test centre, not tested via blood. They suggested I call 111. I’ve since had another identical text message, so I’m starting to suspect an IT issue.
 

IronGiant

Moderator
Didn't know whether to useful, sad or wow that :thumbsup::(:eek:
 

richp007

Distinguished Member
Phoned them, they knew nothing about it and said I’d have been swabbed at a test centre, not tested via blood. They suggested I call 111. I’ve since had another identical text message, so I’m starting to suspect an IT issue.
Never. Utterly ridiculous to suggest there'd ever be an IT issue.
 

acatweasel

Well-known Member
900 people get cancer each day
Eventually half survive and half die, every day.

So 450 people die each day from cancer.

What's happened to the 450 people that should live x 100 days since lock down. = 45,000 who should survive but now might not. Maybe some have been seen and are getting urgent treatment, but what I've been reading is large parts of the NHS are shut down

Ok, maybe only half of the 45k will die early now, so 22k deaths from cancer. But are these deaths saving 10 years of life, 20 years of life? This is vs the average age of a covid death which is 80+

I posted a while back about organ transplants, dropped from 250 a month to 100, lets say that's 600 people over 4 months sentenced to death, I fear what suicide figures will be too.

surely the goal here should be least total loss of life in years, (a 20 year old is worth 50-60 years of life vs an 85 year old worth ??)

It's a nasty business but Isn't that the job of the epidemiologists? Everyone now is an arm chair expert and knows better than Chris Whitty etc who spent decades studying this stuff.
That's not correct maths even in these circumstances.
You have to bear in mind there are several reasons that the NHS decided to suspend some treatments due to COVID-19. Survival rates for those with compromised immune systems would not have been good.
Christie's Hospital Trust - cancer specialists, kept a service ticking over and moreover took patients from other areas of Manchester, who may have been otherwise scheduled for treatment elsewhere. It was well thought out. Try this, direct from their website, it explains matters a lot better than I can:

 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
Leicester is of course worrying as are the stats in some other areas.

Thankfully up here in the North East things are looking far far better. With the new information released today it seems that every single area in the NE (apart from Stockton) has had less than 10 cases per 100,000 over the past few weeks.

I'm my own county of Northumberland it's only 3.4.

Considering how bad things were recently up here I'm pretty pleased right now.

Just crossing my fingers that the changes on Saturday won't result in a second wave.
 

GarryF

Well-known Member
That's not correct maths even in these circumstances.
You have to bear in mind there are several reasons that the NHS decided to suspend some treatments due to COVID-19. Survival rates for those with compromised immune systems would not have been good.
Christie's Hospital Trust - cancer specialists, kept a service ticking over and moreover took patients from other areas of Manchester, who may have been otherwise scheduled for treatment elsewhere. It was well thought out. Try this, direct from their website, it explains matters a lot better than I can:

So 900 people get diagnosed each day with cancer. You honestly don't think that number will have dropped substantially?

I fully expect cancer sufferers to be getting their care wherever possible, I'm referring to the likelihood that substantial numbers won't be getting diagnosed right now, due to lack of services and also very importantly fear of people seeking help

Potential 3 month delays in cancer diagnosis for people will very much mean the difference between life and death. and now there's a diagnostic back log, could this have been avoided in the short term? who knows but that's why "save the nhs" had to be dumped, people weren't seeking help.

90,000 people should have been diagnosed with cancer in the last 100 days.

I wonder what the figure actually is.

Surely you must accept that cancer deaths will increase in the years to come.
 

tom 2000

Well-known Member
So 900 people get diagnosed each day with cancer. You honestly don't think that number will have dropped substantially?

I fully expect cancer sufferers to be getting their care wherever possible, I'm referring to the likelihood that substantial numbers won't be getting diagnosed right now, due to lack of services and also very importantly fear of people seeking help

Potential 3 month delays in cancer diagnosis for people will very much mean the difference between life and death. and now there's a diagnostic back log, could this have been avoided in the short term? who knows but that's why "save the nhs" had to be dumped, people weren't seeking help.

90,000 people should have been diagnosed with cancer in the last 100 days.

I wonder what the figure actually is.

Surely you must accept that cancer deaths will increase in the years to come.
I can say that my missus who has been treated and operated on for cancer over the last two years had treatments delayed due to infection fears and had numerous appointments cancelled in April May and scans delayed because nothing was happening in NHS. When she eventually blagged a scan by begging and the results came through it ahowed rapid progression. Out of control was one comment. That is a direct consequence of policy. Bookings were told to ignore all red flags and urgent referrals.
 

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