2019 Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) hits the UK

Judge Mental

Well-known Member
There is nothing wrong with the way you post. It is a societal problem. Certain jobs, positions are usually associate with men. Usually, eminent surgeon, doctor, etc, people have a cultural problem in associating these terms with women. It is a subconscious problem. It is changing but we still have a long road ahead of us.

Regarding name and profession is hard to tell these days. I know men called Rachel and women called Alexis and very often we don’t the origin of names.
People usually assume I’m male just from my user name.
 

paulyoung666

Distinguished Member
Cases are up massively. Hospitalisations are up slightly. Increase in deaths marginal.

Even allowing for the lag, there's a lot to be optimistic about - Bolton has as good as proven that.

The jabs are getting us out of this.
Agreed , still think June 21st ? isn’t going to happen though 🤔
 

The Thorne

Active Member
Just a question, if you have been in contact with somebody with has Covid delta virus and you and none of your family get it. Does that affect the 50 or 60% infection rate that is being talked about.

We got Covid version 1 from a brief trip to a supermarket pre masks but this time according to the app we spent at least 15 mins within 2m of an infected person and wasnt infected or reinfected we have all taken 2 lateral flow tests.

Seems a bit suss that 50%, is it really more infectious or are people just being less careful?
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
Agreed , still think June 21st ? isn’t going to happen though 🤔
There will still be 4-5 days worth of data for them to look at. Things should be a lot clearer come Monday on whether the huge increase in cases we've seen over the last month poses a significant risk of illness / death. And whether hospitals can cope.
 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
Hope so. I'm concerned about the 0.1% of people with the DV die from it....that's worrying (one in a thousand) as so many have now been vaccinated twice. Reassuringly it seems the deaths are those with underlying conditions (even if fully vaxxed) and nothing like as many as previous ones, but may mean lockdown extention to protect them, even when vaxxed?

You go from one day full of hope to another dull of dread.

0.1% would be fantastic.

That's approximately what it is for the flu.

So job done then once we've vaxxed everyone.
 

The Thorne

Active Member
0.1% would be fantastic.

That's approximately what it is for the flu.

So job done then once we've vaxxed everyone.
And that will only get better, remember that 0.1% does not take into account any asymptomatic cases which were never caught or infected cases where people just isolated at home without getting an official test.
 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
As awful as it sounds the number of deaths has never been the problem. It's the strain on the NHS. So so many infected people ending up in hospital.

The flu might kill 1 in 1000 but very very few end in up in hospital.

Once we no longer have a naeive population something similar should happen with covid.
 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
I think it matters to those 12 people... a bit of a poor choice of words?

I get the point, but after 15 months of this I'm just a bit exhausted.

1600 people die every day in the uk.

Every death does of course matter your right.

But once we've safeguarded the NHS we need to move on.
 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
The first two waves where were dealt with by locking everyone down.

This is the first time we should be able to do the same without reintroducing restrictions.

The downside is putting off the 21st and again dealing with a very very scary rise in cases and most likely hospitalisations. Albeit a manageable one.

Of course the major upsides is it means an end to all of this. Assuming some decent lasting immunity and boosters jabs sooner rather than later.
 

rustybin

Distinguished Member
As awful as it sounds the number of deaths has never been the problem. It's the strain on the NHS. So so many infected people ending up in hospital.

The flu might kill 1 in 1000 but very very few end in up in hospital.

Once we no longer have a naeive population something similar should happen with covid.

Purely anecdotal, but my Dr friends said that there were a huge number of people unnecessarily piling into A&E last year. People panicking and coming in with hayfever or whatever believing themselves to have Covid. Ironically putting themselves in harm's way by coming into hospital / leaving the safety of their homes and coming into contact with people who actually had it.

Hopefully that fear will have subsided.
 

jamesp26

Active Member
Does it matter if they generally aren't ill, and either pass it on to other non-vulnerable groups or those fully vaxxed?

At some point surely 100% of the whole country will have contacted/inhaled covid - the vaccine doesn't stop it getting into your body?

Anyhow, it's time to move on from cases and concentrate on hopsptalisations and breaking down those stats to those unvaccinated/part/fully and we can see the wider picture. If it turns out that a large % of under 30's with covid require hospital, THEN it's an issue solved only be delaying release (maybe going back a stage) and getting those vaccines out.

It matters a great deal, especially when you consider the position we are at.

We are basically seeing the lag effect of reopening, and the link between reopening and cases can clearly be seen. Cases are only going to go in one direction, and will likely accelerate with additional opening.

Now IF the link between cases and hospitalisations has been broken then you can view this with reduced risk. This is were more time is needed, because even the most dismissive posters in here can only say 'if', not 'have' when it comes to that link being broken . However, regardless how good our vaccination program has been, we are a way away from herd immunity. Increases in cases means you increase the risk of the virus spilling into the non vaccinated groups and further spilling into the vaccinated at risk groups. You will test that efficacy to the max at he earliest possible stage. People are mixing for more right now, and the further re-opening will create more mixing.

I do not believe for one moment that when the original road map was put together they thought we would be seeing exponential rises a few weeks before the final re-opening. We have to be mature enough to admit that the every changing scenario has once against thrown us a curveball, and more time is needed to evaluate it.
 

DarthFenian

Active Member
imgonline-com-ua-twotoone-QErDg47SEji.jpg
 

Mevlock

Well-known Member
I do not believe for one moment that when the original road map was put together they thought we would be seeing exponential rises a few weeks before the final re-opening. We have to be mature enough to admit that the every changing scenario has once against thrown us a curveball, and more time is needed to evaluate it.

Very much this, the roadmap was spot on and would have worked perfectly if it was just the alpha variant we were up against. We would have seen a dramatic drop in cases just like Israel.

Then along came delta....
 

SteveAWOL

Distinguished Member
We knew this would happen from day 1.

It happened in Israel.

No one ever expected the vaccine to prevent all deaths from covid.

It really doesn't matter, not given the overall efficacy numbers.
Yes, more info needed on those who died after receiving two doses. How old were these people? Did they have underlying health conditions? Which jab did they have (the AZ takes longer to take effect). When did they contract Covid (how long after they had the jab) etc etc

All questions need to be answered or it's just scaremongering imo

Yup, sounds like some people are expecting the booster jab to cure all illnesses and also protect against ageing!!
 

apolloa

Distinguished Member
I get the point, but after 15 months of this I'm just a bit exhausted.

1600 people die every day in the uk.

Every death does of course matter your right.

But once we've safeguarded the NHS we need to move on.

We are all fed up with it, but you cannot rest on your laurels yet and sure people die everyday, but how many of those are due to stupid accidents or car crashes because of idiot people, we can't all be like those idiot people going back to normal if it gives the virus a free run again.
Just need to be cautious for a while yet, the NHS is screwed either way with a 5 million plus backlog now, we await to see the plan for the service moving forward.
We as humans are far too concerned with money and our own selfish interests, nature couldn't care less about those things.
A bit of caution is still required. I think the effects will be felt for years to come yet, even though the virus in the grand scheme hasn't killed a high number at all, it's legacy may well do, NHS being an example.

Sorry bit of a depressing thought there.. I can see this country coping with the virus by the end of the year, just hope we don't let a new variant in that undoes all that later on.
 
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tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
Cases are up massively. Hospitalisations are up slightly. Increase in deaths marginal.

Even allowing for the lag, there's a lot to be optimistic about - Bolton has as good as proven that.

The jabs are getting us out of this.

The vaccines do seem to be breaking the link between hospitalisations and death. I think we should delay the easing of restrictions for a few more weeks. The risk with ploughing ahead is that we might find ourselves in a situation where a new variant arises that could escape vaccine protections. Better safe than sorry as the saying goes.

And those lateral flow tests the UK is using ? The US FDA basically says you might as well chuck them in a bin.
 

apolloa

Distinguished Member
On a side note I got my second jab at lunchtime. The nurse certainly seemed to plunge the needle in lol!! Happier now I've had both jabs though.
 

jamesp26

Active Member
The vaccines do seem to be breaking the link between hospitalisations and death. I think we should delay the easing of restrictions for a few more weeks. The risk with ploughing ahead is that we might find ourselves in a situation where a new variant arises that could escape vaccine protections. Better safe than sorry as the saying goes.

And those lateral flow tests the UK is using ? The US FDA basically says you might as well chuck them in a bin.

snip..

The accuracy of the Innova tests also falls dramatically when administered by self-trained, non-healthcare workers versus lab scientists.
But perhaps the biggest concern is that the tests only tend to pick up cases when the person has high levels of the virus. Typically, when a person is first infected – they have low levels of virus.

So the issue is false negatives, not false positives as many on forums were whining about on forums a while back. I'm not sure this is anything new really, and the reduced effectiveness of these were well known.
 

tapzilla2k

Distinguished Member
snip..




So the issue is false negatives, not false positives as many on forums were whining about on forums a while back. I'm not sure this is anything new really, and the reduced effectiveness of these were well known.

It's the cornerstone of the UK's testing operation at the moment. You might have a viral load that's so low the test can't pick it up, meaning you could spread it further without realising it. Until you take another test when the viral load is higher. It's a hole in our defences against the virus.
 

Har-One

Member
The vaccines do seem to be breaking the link between hospitalisations and death. I think we should delay the easing of restrictions for a few more weeks. The risk with ploughing ahead is that we might find ourselves in a situation where a new variant arises that could escape vaccine protections. Better safe than sorry as the saying goes.

And those lateral flow tests the UK is using ? The US FDA basically says you might as well chuck them in a bin.
Well, the Guardian’s article says that it is the same test that we are using. I just got two boxes identical to the picture in the Guardian from work. I thought that each box had only a test kit, but it comes with seven kits. The box does not have any reference to Innova. It says that it is made in China by Xiamen Biotime Biotechnology Co. Ltd. And that it is manufactured for: Department of Health and Social Care.
 

Laureline

Well-known Member
Hope so. I'm concerned about the 0.1% of people with the DV die from it....that's worrying (one in a thousand) as so many have now been vaccinated twice. Reassuringly it seems the deaths are those with underlying conditions (even if fully vaxxed) and nothing like as many as previous ones, but may mean lockdown extention to protect them, even when vaxxed?

You go from one day full of hope to another dull of dread.

The UK Government were willing to let people die in-order to achieve herd immunity.

Once they're sure the NHS will not be swamped by those who have been vaccinated but may still be hospitalized then they're going to unlock.
 

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