It's not a bad price, if correct, compared to what was expected for this model - however IMHO it's still too expensive for mass market take up, and so calling it as meaning an early end to the "format war" is a bit optimistic unfortunately!
You've confused two things here -
'mass market take up' and
'the "format war"'.
Mass market adoption
will come when player prices are low enough.
But the format war is now at an end. Why? Because no-one will pay £400 for a BD-only player when you can get a BD and HD DVD player in one for £485. If this price is correct
BD can no longer win.
What next? Well, there's little point Warner pressing two versions of a disc when they'll both play on the same players.
Now, look at what Paramount have said recently about how complex and time-consuming it is to write Java code for BD - not to mention expensive. When most players are dual-format, Warner will go HD DVD only. There is no incentive whatsoever for them to go BD, if they've already been prepared to release on HD DVD.
Now to Fox and Disney. They prefer BD because it's more secure. Fair enough, it'll be their choice. But when Warner, Universal & Paramount are selling HD DVDs for the same price as BDs, but paying less to create and press them, they'll be making more money from their HD DVDs.
Then Fox & Disney will have to do some sums. How much less are we losing to the pirates than these other HD DVD-only studios, and is the difference greater than they'll be losing by pressing the more expensive format?
Two things to remember here:
- Firstly, you'll still get HD pirate copies of BD discs. There are already ways of recording high def pictures through analogue component outputs. Sure, you don't get all the extras, but I'm not entirely convinced anyone checks for this when they hand over £5 for a bootleg to the man at the car boot sale. And if those boots are on HD DVD, you might end up with Disney HD DVDs outselling Disney BDs.
- Secondly, whilst only a fool would pay £399 for a BD-only player when you can go dual-fortmat for £86 more, you can't say the same about HD DVD. We'll be looking at £485 dual-format v £399 BD-only v £149 for HD DVD-only.
The result is that the format war may well be won way before the mass market arrives.
Steve W