Let's see, current BR disks go up to 50 Gb.
Current SDHC cards cost about £30 for the 16 Gb size and I've seen a 32Gb card for £100. It's hard to see that a 50 Gig card is going to exist this side of £50 for several years.
Presently blank optical disks are sold for a pound or two.
Can anyone see where I'm going with this ?
The other thing is that
AFAIK BR discs are stamped like CDs and DVDs. A single disk can be stamped in a spilt second. With a memory card approach it would be necessary to transfer the data electronically. Whilst this could be done at "high speed" it would still take several minutes. I don't think that this is going to be commercially viable.
However, nothing is permanent and I'm sure that BR won't last forever. The replacement technology will probably be even more radical than your suggestion though. Rather than a change in physical container (from disk to memory card) I foresee the move away from any physical device to on-demand electronically delivered content.
This is already starting with the likes of the BBC iplayer and those of other broadcasters, not to mention cable TV. There has also been talk of Sky using broadband to augment its service.
In the future, the idea of using physical containers for software may seem as archaic as horse-drawn carts !
I was just thinking about computer software. Back in the 80s it used to be in big boxes, with a dozen or more floppy disks (and took
ages to install). In the 90s it switched to CD (and then DVD). But I'm scratching my head to think of the last time I bought software on a physical medium. I've been buying stuff and downloading it via the Internet for
years now.
And haven't "the kids" stopped buying music altogether ? If they
do actually pay, it is for downloads to their phones.
Regards