[The News Bot]

<p><img style="margin: 6px; float: left;" src="http://www.homecinemachoice.com/files/hcc_content/software/roger_l_kay_0.jpg" title="Endpoint Technology's Roger L Kay" width="95" height="123" />Blu-ray is heading for a recession-induced heart attack. <br />That’s the view of US analyst Roger Kay, president of Endpoint Technologies Associates. <br />Current economic woes, coupled with spiraling competition from ‘video over cable, satellite and the Internet’ will be enough to lock out the format, he predicts. <span class='read-more'><a href="http://www.homecinemachoice.com/blogs/team_hcc/industry+split+on+BD+success">&nbsp;read&nbsp;more &nbsp;&raquo;</a></span></p>

[mikim]

It looks to me like Roger Kay should take himself back to college and learn a new trade.
What a ridiculous statement.

[lloydsmart]

Blu-ray is the replacement for DVD. End of.

[Pecker]

Whatever the rights and wrongs of his statement, Blu-ray Disc is a fledgling format, and we are entering a recession where people are watching their pennies (cents?).

I think we should all be aware that, if BD is to survive and prosper, it needs all the help it can.

This means studios ensuring they give no one cause to moan. It means supporting the format with the best releases possible.

Just by way of an an example, the BDA need to be telling New Line/Warner that we need LOTR out in 2009, and we don't need some bare bones, theatrical versions only releases, where a good number of people will hold off and wait for the extended versions. We don't need cynical minds feeding with the ammo that a second release will come in 2011.

That's just one example, and I'm aware some people prefer the theatrical versions, but it's vital that no room for failure is provided which can be avoided.

Steve W

[Upholder]

Originally Posted by lloydsmart

Blu-ray is the replacement for DVD. End of.

That's what I would call a head in the sand statement... BD has a hell of a long way to go to change the minds of people who are very happy with their upscaled cheap dvd's, that they can pickup out of a basket in a shop doorway for a couple of quid... The guy may or may not be correct in what he says.. Time will tell...

[stasis]

Hi, I have bought very few blu-ray discs because I am not prepared to pay the high price premium for blu-ray. The price premium for blu-ray is often more than £10 for back catalogue movies. I am prepared to pay around about £6:00 for SD movies and have hundreds to chose from. People know there is no reason to pay £19 for a movie.
A must have movie such as Wall-e will tempt me to pay a couple of pounds more for the blu-ray at the time of release on disc. The sd version will still have a great picture and sound quality so most people are happy with the SD discs.
Price is what will make or brake blu-ray. If the price is right I would consider buying the blu-ray of some of my favourite movies but not for £10 or more.
Even when viewed on my 106 inch screen projector I am happy to watch SD. In order to tempt people into making a purchase high quality should be part of the basic package.
I bought very few VHS tapes because both price and quality were not attractive. I have a decent DVD collection because price and quality were attractive. For me to buy blu-ray it will have to be price and quality attractive.
SACD is a minority market because of high prices and not because of its performance. Superior technical performance must be at a price people are prepared to pay.
regards stasis.

[punkymunky]

Bluray is faced with many problems:

1) They are expensive to produce
2) They are no more convenient to use than DVDs
3) They are a lot more expensive to buy than DVDs
4) Most people have a collection of DVDs that they seldom watch anyway
5) You can only really appreciate the benefits if you have a large 50"+ screen which most people do not have
6) The increase in quality is marginal compared to VHS to DVD
7) Most people are happy with the quality of DVD
8) A more detailed representation doesn't necessarily make you enjoy the film any more
9) Downloading or accessing movies over the net IS the future
10) There is a recession

Having said that, I would be prepared to buy bluray discs if a decent version 2 player was available that cost less than £200 and could upscale my DVDs and had an HD compatible hard drive. And the discs cost less than a tenner and there were more older movies available...

Almost there then

[dicky]

Originally Posted by lloydsmart

Blu-ray is the replacement for DVD. End of.

Haha, what a statement. Blu-ray will be more like laser disc. There is no way - IMO - Blu-ray will ever
outstrip sales of DVD. The companies selling Blu-ray may like to think of it as the replacement for DVD. Blu-ray sales will increase but I am not sure they will ever take over DVD sales in the way that DVD took over VHS or CDs took over vinyl.

[Sluggster]

I have a PS3 in the house. I love AV and would like to buy more BR discs. Having been burned by HDDVD I'm not going to buy a good BR player and I'm not going to buy any BR discs. I'd love to have the new HD sound formats but I'd have to replace my Yamaha AV amp. It's not going to happen soon.

If I'm not going to do it then I'm pretty sure the average film buyer cares even less.

To have any hope of success BR discs need to mirror the prices of SD and BR players need to come down to <£50.

So then you have to ask whats the point of BR?? Not to us but to the manufacturers that have to invest in new tooling, pay for expensive licences etc. They might as well stick with SD and save money. Just like us. Is there an ever decreasing circle there?

[fintan]

one factor which we overlook is the fact that when dvd came along vhs ceased to be,at the moment dvd is just as popular if not more than blu ray also it is bought by your average punter at really low prices and because it is still in the market blu ray will struggle to overhaul dvd as a home entertainment medium.

[covdude]

Hier,

I understand the different sceptisisms, but imo blue ray will come out on top. Most people upgrading to a flat screen hd tv want to watch hd films. Especially the ever increasing non subscribers. Talleid with freesat aventurers. As for the economic downturn its becoming very expensive to go out for a drink / meal etc so i believe that more people will be staying in with a 6 pack from the supermarket and a take away and sometimes with a blue ray film. A good night in for 20 pounds which appeals to me and imo many others rather than going out as much paying shed loads and bumping into idiots ! That said i dont live near many nice places to go and prefer a long countrywalk with my dog ending in a couple of country pub pints!

Yours,

Steve

[JH4]

I believe some of the problem is the lack of good material on BD.
For example - where is the BD version of "Titanic" ?
Where is the BD version of "Cast Away" - only on import, it seems.
Where is the BD version of one of the best music DVDs - "The Concert for George" ( which was filmed with HD cameras. )
I could go on..
A large number of BD releases are just mindless drivel - made for 5 year olds who are more interested in iPods than high definition TV.
Just my thoughts of course !

[domtheone]

VHS was simply crying out for a replacement. DVD does not feel that dated in comparison (imo).

Studios could give BR a massive push by releasing films before their DVD counterparts. Not to mention competitive pricing (only a little more than DVD's rather than say double). Back this up with some decent marketing too. (Only on BR at this time etc etc).

They could always step up the back catalogue releases too with the likes of LOTR/Spielberg catalogue, not to mention Star Wars (well ok maybe not Star Wars since it never gets an early release in any new format) but that may put a dent in the cash cow that is DVD

They may moan that there is not a big enough BR market at the moment for the big guns to come out but they will bring out superior versions (just like they did with DVD) of said movies in a few years anyway. That's as certain as night following day.

The powers that be can easily secure a big future for BR. Just needs someone to think longer time rather than next quarters profit numbers

[Alkali]

In my opinion, biggest hurdle to get the format into an unstoppable purge of DVD's is in the homes of already Blu-friendly homes (ie. homes with HD-Ready or FullHD TV's). Once that battle is won, friends, neighbours and family will start to follow suit.

As it stands not that many people (myself included) are changing their collections over yet. This is due to one main reason, and thats the price. 3 for 2 offers are helping, but the base price of discs needs to dip to £9.99 before people buy them in batches to replace DVD's. £17 or £17.99 for many single movies isn't doing the format any favours.

i think the biggest threat to blu ray is high defininition on cable or satelite. I have ceased buying blu ray when sky increased its HD movie channels to 6.

They have to bring blu ray disks down to dvd prices to really make blu ray work in my view

[brian s]

Originally Posted by dicky

Haha, what a statement. Blu-ray will be more like laser disc. There is no way - IMO - Blu-ray will ever
outstrip sales of DVD. The companies selling Blu-ray may like to think of it as the replacement for DVD. Blu-ray sales will increase but I am not sure they will ever take over DVD sales in the way that DVD took over VHS or CDs took over vinyl.

Blu-Ray has a long way to go but it's already far bigger than Laserdisc ever was. I was into LD and I only knew 2 other people who owned players. I know loads more who have a PS3 and are buying BDs. There's also much greater shelf space given over to BD. Bearing in mind that LDs were LP size that means there's a lot more titles on those selves. Plus I see many more people buying them than I ever did with LD.

All the best
Bri

[fire boy]

If Blu ray, as a format die's of a "heart attack" the studio's will only have themselves to blame.

I mean every new tv purchased within the last 2 years had got to at least hi def ready right? (720p at least)

Make disc prices reasonable, say £15 max for new release, pump through the "must have" back catalouge sooner rather than later and go reigion free.

I mean meet the consumer halfway in terms of cost for players and discs instead of spending millions of pounds on telling us why "blu is better" and use that to discount the format.

There is a huge number of enthusiasts and early adopters which have been blown away with the quality and tell freinds and family about how good it is whan they showcase there set ups to push the format forward but many people rufuse to justify the cost at the moment.

Format wars have not helped its reputation either!

So any studio marketing bods out there, take heed!

[Les E]

I have been looking at getting either a PS3 or a dedicated Blu-ray player for Christmas but I am still sitting on the fence really, mainly due to the price of the players at present.

Plus if I get a dedicated player (Been looking at the Sony BDP S550) and to really get the full on HD experience I would need to upgrade my Yamaha amp to accomodate the new sound formats (although it will presently adopt these through PCM) and my Infocus IN76 (due to being native to only 720p). Now that's a helluvalot of new kit which I really can't afford at present to get the best from the player.

Plus I have a lot of Region 1 DVD's which I watch so I could really do with a player that acoommodates multi-region on the Standard Def (or keep my multi-region Pioneer in the loop). I know there are a few BD players on the market that will do this but that is forcing the price up again.

Also the BIG question mark for me is it worth it all and am I going to get that much better picture from it.

I have seen BD discs spinning in the Sony stores on Full HD 1080p screens and these look superb, but I am wondering if this is due to the screen technology as much as the Blu-ray player?

I recently saw a copy of Transformers playing on a JVC BD player (at the Manchester Sound & Vision show) through a projector onto a 100"+ screen and TBH, I was not that impressed. I thought it was a little sharper to the eye but not leaps and bounds which made me think that my current set-up is not too far off the mark.

So is it worth the extra monies for a system upgrade that seems more of a tweak. Or should I sacrifice the added sound quality and get a PS3?

[covdude]

im getting a pS3 for bd and the odd game and mostly to borrow of my brothers collection. Having blue ray and a footy and racing game appeals to me. Along with cnc 3 online with my PC. Ive got stereo sound and will keep that for a couple more years. so i would go for ps3 40 gb on ebay for 150 pounds.

yours

steve

[David Mackenzie]

Haha, what a statement. Blu-ray will be more like laser disc. There is no way - IMO - Blu-ray will ever outstrip sales of DVD.

Even when it's difficult to buy a DVD-only player?

I agree that it's not an exact comparison, but 5 years ago on the internet (and maybe on this forum), I remember reading discussions about whether HDTV would be a success or not. Same reasons were given, the price, "PAL is good enough", only videophiles would care about the difference.

IMO, the question people should be asking is, is there any compelling reason why, as the tech gets cheaper, that BD will NOT replace DVD?

[Les E]

Has anyone seen a stunning Hi-Def Blu-ray picture on a Projector/screen that is on par with some of the demo's currently on LCD/Plasma packages?

I need to be convinced before parting with any hard cash (or the wife's for that matter!).

[Dr Force]

Simple truth is that its too exspensive in an economy thats going backwards (worldwide) this is whats going to hurt it.

It just cannot compete with DVD at the moment. I am watching the pennies and have only purchased DVD's costing no more than £6.99 in the last 2 months.We have a relatively small mortgage, no loans and money saved. i have spent in the region of £8000 on my hobby in the past 3 years, but i am not willing to pay the stupid BD prices even though i can afford it.

now if i feel that way given my circumstances, how many other people feel the same on a much tighter budget......................choose a DVD for £10 or a BD of the same film for £17.99...no contest.

I have a very good PJ and although SD is nothing like HD, I still get an outstanding picture and sound via DD & DTS....this will do me fine until BD gets into the real world.

[Miyazaki]

Having just got a ps3 myself, I am holding off buying any more blurays simply because of the cost.

Even 3 for 2 offers are expensive at £10 per disc.

Low quality discs are too common, the benchmark needs to be raised, and the price needs to be significantly less.

Upscaling to 1080p on my tosh ep35, you can't tell the difference between a relatively poor BD disc and an average SD dvd.

House of Flying Daggers being a prime example.

[lostinspace]

Film companies need to look at what they are releasing on BR. There's been very little worth buying recently, though now we're in the run up to Christmas that will change.
But as for what they've brought out on BR so far, there's no wonder sales are not as high as they would like. I can understand some wanting the LOTR films (though I'm not one of them). But it would have to be a very special package to get me to replace my SD discs, unlike replacing my VHS with DVD. I'm more than happy with my SD versions of all but my top 10 maybe. Why don't they offer a decent trade in of my SD towards a bly ray version? It might get me to part with some of my money.
Looking a my SD collection, I've bought an averge of 2 SD discs a week for the last 10 years. Since getting a PS3 player 4 months ago, I've bought 2 BR discs, and no games. Haven't rented any either. I got the player cheap so bought into BR, but really cannot find much to tempt me to buy the discs so far.
By Christmas, my BR collection will have risen to about 8 I think.

[dazza74]

All the films I've paid upto £18 for on Blu ray where all moved on after one watch I essentially treated them as a cheap rental. Now I only rent Blu Ray's I think my collection of Blu's stands at all of 8 as opposed to about 45 HD DVD's due to the cheap prices. I suppose they are charging £18 currently for Blu Ray's because the market's so small they might as well get as much as they can out of the true enthusiasts. There only hope to boost the format I feel is to price the new releases at the same price as DVD that could help matters but I still feel you'll have a job getting people to buy a new disc player at the current time.

[ray100]

I am not convinced that the price of Blu Ray disks will come down much in the near future. DVD is still being supported and this will continue for the forseeable future. There will thus continue to be a price differential between DVD and Blu Ray.

[David Mackenzie]

. Why don't they offer a decent trade in of my SD towards a bly ray version? It might get me to part with some of my money.

Already being done in the US with some titles. I'm sure that, like everything, that'll appear in Europe later (sigh).

[mudhutts]

This is the view of one analyst, an analyst who also predicted HD-DVD would make a comeback after losing Warner, due to the player price cuts.

People are just impatient, the UK market is at least one year behind the US, even more with Japan.

Blu-ray now accounts for 30% of DVD player sales in Japan, big Blu-ray titles account for 14%-20% of DVD movie sales in the US, the UK and Europe is still catching up, but is expected to outpace the US in time.

A couple of years back HDTV's were expensive luxory items, as prices reduced they are now the norm.

[robfosters]

Originally Posted by punkymunky

Bluray is faced with many problems:

5) You can only really appreciate the benefits if you have a large 50"+ screen which most people do not have

8) A more detailed representation doesn't necessarily make you enjoy the film any more

Have to disagree with these points slightly.

I think the benefits of blu-ray over DVD are obvious on any screen. Seeing as most everyday consumers still connect their DVD by scart, the jump is huge and if you can't see a big difference on any screen over 32 inch, then I think you probably need an eye test (a much more common problem that people realise)

It's not just about detail. detail is a major issue. I certainly appreciate it. But there is the extra storage space for extras, much higher quality HD audio and more connectivity and expansion once BD Live becomes more popular.

[jendo]

I think the one big advantage that blue ray has that laser disk and VHS never enjoyed is backward compatibility. when the average customers original dvd player bites the dust if the price differential is only small why would they not buy a blue ray player. All there DVD collection is still usable, video shops already rent blue rays at the same price as DVDs and hopefully the price of new disks will be comparable in the future. Admittedly I doubt the average Joe would be convinced of the benefits of double dipping but if prices can be reduced enough IMHO the future will be blue.