[The News Bot]

If you think your new HD movie-collecting hobby is going to be a long and rewarding one, think again. According to a report from research firm SNL Kagan, our current dalliance with Blu-ray and HD DVD will soon be old news as Studios switch their focus online. It suggests that sales of all physical video [...]
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[Matt306]

Of course, everyone in the world will want to download films instead of getting a disc that has a better protective coating than recordable media (unless DRM will mean we won't even be able to do that), or a nice presentation box.

[Nabs]

Downloading is all well and good and is convenient, however has several problems that need to be ironed out for a consumer. First of all is one talking of streaming or downloading and burning to media, both have problems. Streaming - high quality files require hugh bandwidths and are often interrupted. Downloading and burning large files also take time, often have digital errors on disc etc. Neverming drm and other copy protection measures - will the studios who are very keen on control allow downloaded material to be burnt, will they only allow viewing for a period of time etc. etc.

Blu-ray and HD DVD interest is strangled by 2 different formats once more, more than anything that holds back adopters and cools interest. Furthermore a damper is set on by the studios wish to control and regulate how the material can be watched.

I would much prefer to purchase high quality material and play such at my own whim on high quality equipment. Downloading will not enable such flexibility for some time to come.

[Mark_a]

Expect the Sky+ model to be the overriding paradigm. Streaming or short term hard-drive storage being the order of the day, with limited opportunity to make lesser quality disc copies, if DVD burners are still available by then. For the great majority simply watching a film is the main thing. Keeping a permanent copy on the shelf is/will be the desire of a minority. It will become almost absurd to keep discs when anything and everything is available to stream/download as and when you want it 24/7.

It's a brave new world coming right at ya.

Regards

Mark

[rooster-x]

Well that report is pretty positive about HD, 60% sales of $749m not bad and will be around until 2015. I've only had DVD for about 5 years, so if I'm going to have HD DVD for the next 7 years, thats fine by me

[Rainfall]

Originally Posted by Nabs

Downloading is all well and good and is convenient, however has several problems that need to be ironed out for a consumer. First of all is one talking of streaming or downloading and burning to media, both have problems. Streaming - high quality files require hugh bandwidths and are often interrupted. Downloading and burning large files also take time, often have digital errors on disc etc. Neverming drm and other copy protection measures - will the studios who are very keen on control allow downloaded material to be burnt, will they only allow viewing for a period of time etc. etc.

Blu-ray and HD DVD interest is strangled by 2 different formats once more, more than anything that holds back adopters and cools interest. Furthermore a damper is set on by the studios wish to control and regulate how the material can be watched.

I would much prefer to purchase high quality material and play such at my own whim on high quality equipment. Downloading will not enable such flexibility for some time to come.

Ditto

[Rasczak]

I am inclined to agree that the mass market future is probably downloads. However I don't think this means that HD DVD and BluRay won't be able to corner a significant portion of the market.

First and foremost a large number of people do still like packaged media. Yes CD sales have suffered because of MP3 downloads - but sales are still strong.

Secondly only the disc based formats will offer the 'ultimate' home cinema experience. Downloads, just as broadcasts, will always be as small as possible. The bigger the files are the longer it takes to download, the more it costs to store (both on store and home servers) and the more strain it puts on the ISPs. All factors that conspire to keep bitrates as low as possible. By contrast HD DVD/BluRay are only limited by their disc capacities/bandwidth limitations - ergo having high bitrate video coupled with lossless audio is easily achieved.

All in all then I don't thnk the new formats will dominate like DVD did. However I think in time, as the new formats work their way into players of all price-points, they will find a significant market to tap.

[Kenny Glasgow]

The UK will have to invest £billions in optical cabelling for braodband as current of copper core cable does not lend itself for high speed, high definition movies

Now if we all lived in South Korea it wouldn't be a problem, or Paris, or....

[Black 5]

I must admit, it's nice to have something tangible when you part with some cash, but I don't know if that means I'll end up a dinosaur, insisting on wanting to put something into my collection.

Of course the computer manufacturers would love us to rely on downloads as that gives them the chance to sell us all PCs/non-working OS/incompatible hardware over and over again, as they continue to try to make the computer the centre of the universe, but people will be people and just like the vast majority are rejecting the HD formats because of the format war (a situation contributed to in large part by Microsoft), they won't be dictated to in the way the marketing gurus think they will. Haven't we been listening to tripe about convergence in the home for the last 20+years?

I would also be very suspicious about downloads' quality/bitrate, etc. MP3 downloads will never be a format of choice in my home and I don't see any bitrate squeezed video having any more success!

Then again, I remember reading a report that says 87% of all reports are full of **it

[Kenny Glasgow]

There are lies, damned lies and statistics

In this download generation most of the under 30's are happy with compressed music & video, hence the popularity of all things i-Pod and You Tube

[bonzobanana]

Unless somehow the internet is going to get extra controls and regulation surely a lot of downloads will be pirate downloads anyway.

I just thinking the future when virtual reality helmets are the norm you'll get the high end home cinema people going into a virtual room where all their licensed/paid for movie downloads are presented in glossy boxes in shelves in a virtual room just to keep them happy. They'll probably be people living in tubes that own a virtual mansion with a virtual cinema room. All pretty wierd really.

There will come a day when people on average spend more time in the virtual world than consciously in the physical world and at that time there will probably some people that also spend almost no time consciously in the physical world. The wierd thing is when you think about it we have no way of knowing if our so called existing physical world isn't a virtual world anyway.

Lets face it downloads are better than physically manufacturing units for the environment and the extreme weather conditions that seem to make up a lot of news nowadays shows the environment isn't quite as stable as it used to be. Its probably a good thing.

[Kenny Glasgow]

Can't agree or see me in a virtual reality helmet

They couldn't find one big enough for my napper

Might be OK for single saddos but for families who like to do things together (well mine does) then "communal" viewing will continue. Living a Blade Runner or Matrix existance is not for me

I agree that downloads will eventually take over the mass market but not before we have fast, reliable internet connections

As for Global warminmg, what about the power required for virtual rooms and helmets?

[bonzobanana]

You could have virtual sex and then a virtual family. That would be good for the environment. I do think virtual reality will gradually start taking over more and more. Its so much easier for virtual reality to be stressfree and entertaining than the real world. As for power requirements I think they are insignificant to real world costs of transport, manufacturing and still have power requirments maybe even higher ones.

When the technology is improved enough, virtual reality will just be something the size of a pair of glasses or goggles with couple of high definition panels, a movement sensor or two, earphones, microphone and perhaps even something new to simulate smells. Familes won't have to go round looking like transformers rejects with huge helmets or anything like that.

[Kenny Glasgow]

Originally Posted by bonzobanana

You could have virtual sex and then a virtual family. That would be good for the environment. I do think virtual reality will gradually start taking over more and more. Its so much easier for virtual reality to be stressfree and entertaining than the real world. .

Oh dear

Get a partner, have kids, buy a mountain bike or walking shoes for all, take a picnic, see the world

[ncollingridge]

Come on guys (those of you who are sceptical), get with the real game! Think how much things have changed in the past five years and then extrapolate. Surely you can all do that? Talk of limited bandwidth, "unreliable OSes" (doesn't even apply today to MacOS X) and so on is all looking to the bad aspects of the past to try and predict the future. In other words, the future just won't be the way you are pessimistically expecting.

Five years ago I couldn't have predicted that today I would have close to 8Mbit/s of bandwidth for only £10/mth, and I certainly couldn't have anticipated something as advanced as a 16GB iPod touch which is a stunning, futuristic device if you've ever played with one.

For the mass market (not including the obsessive audio/videophiles who are frankly an ever diminishing breed in terms of percentage of the market), video downloads will offer everything they want. You can already get an episode of something like Desperate Housewives for only £1.89. Just think how much cheaper and better quality this will be in 7 years time; it will offer everything the vast majority of people want.

Just have a bit of imagination!

[Kenny Glasgow]

I have an imagination!

I have an iMac

I have 2 iPods

I have a wireless network

I have Sky HD

I've had broadband for 6 or 7 years now and the speed has gone from 1 thingy to 2 thingy's. I live about 2 kms from the exchange and that is as fast as it will get. No 8 thingy's for me!

The UK sewer system cannot be used the same way as Paris for fibre optical cable unfortunately, so £billions will have to be invested

I agree that downloads will eventuall be the norm, as I said above

When I was at school you were not allowed to use a calculator in exams, Phillips V1700(??) was the recording media of choice and Teletext wasn't around, so yes, things change

Why would you pay £2.00 to watch Desparate Housewives when you can watch it on various Channel 4 "stations" at least 5 times a week for free?

[ncollingridge]

Maybe Desperate Housewives is not the best example, but I think you get my drift! Anyway I would normally record using my Mac-based DVR from Freeview and stream directly to the TV. But the point really was that on-demand TV is already here so that you can watch when you want, and the price even now at the very early stage of the development of this stuff is surprisingly reasonable, and it's just going to get cheaper and more ubiquitous.

Oh, and my comments were not aimed at the non-sceptics, as I carefully said in my post...

Seven years is a very long time in IT, and fibre, in fact any physical connection, will probably be redundant by then. Or else we will have fibre, which in nearly all cases can be pretty easily run along the BT ducts instead of copper. Either way it will be sorted!

[DSM2512]

Don't rely on BT to get it (fibre) installed in time!

Can you imagine the disruption to roads, footpaths etc, it would be chaotic.

And the achilles heel is still the final connection to the end user. My broadband comes in via a wooden pole, like thousands of others, imagine the cost to replace that. Who will pay?

[Kenny Glasgow]

Originally Posted by DSM2512

Don't rely on BT to get it (fibre) installed in time!

Can you imagine the disruption to roads, footpaths etc, it would be chaotic.

And the achilles heel is still the final connection to the end user. My broadband comes in via a wooden pole, like thousands of others, imagine the cost to replace that. Who will pay?

Exactly

[Black 5]

Originally Posted by DSM2512

Don't rely on BT to get it (fibre) installed in time!

Who will pay?

bonzobonana with his virtual bank balance

[shane515]

Im with Kenny with his points above and you cant argue with DSM, who will pay to 'start again' just so we can catch up with the rest of the mega speed broadband world that is out there?????

Give the disc in my hand anyday of the week well until downloading bigger files etc improves massively

just my 10 pence !!!!!

Shane

[Kenny Glasgow]

Originally Posted by Black 5

bonzobonana with his virtual bank balance

I would much prefer to purchase high quality material and play such at my own whim on high quality equipment. Downloading will not enable such flexibility for some time to come.

Fully agree. I have not and will not buy video through download. If I pay, I want a physical material, i.e. a disc, and I want to have the ability to copy it for my 2nd house ....

The majors do not want to allow me to do this ?? no problem: I don't buy...

[Mike Groves]

And how pray does everyone think the internet will cope with every household in the world downloading films? I gather it's already groaning with something called bitstreaming/bitorrent? in the USA....

[MRadja]

So, The breed of audio/videophiles with collections of vinyl/CDs/DVDs/DVD-A/HD-DVDS AND BD will become a minority and die off eventually? And no AVForums consequently? I think not. I suspect there will be a parallel universe of iPODs, YouTubes etc along with HD-DVDs and BDs. And like me who is about to buy my first mp3 player, there will be others of the other breed who will occasionally buy HDCDs. What happens to YouTube when 3DTVs hit the market? Imagine a smaller version of IMAX 3D at home!! Can't wait for the future.

[ncollingridge]

You're all guilty of thinking purely in terms of where we are today. Can't you see that things WILL be different in 7 years time? You're like the dinosaurs who said the year before CDs were released that they'll never catch on, or similar just before DVDs were first introduced. Things change, but many people can't see it. "I have not and will not buy video through download. If I pay, I want a physical material, i.e. a disc"

Come on, we're talking about SEVEN YEARS TIME here. A lot can change in that time. Just because right now this instant you feel this way doesn't mean that you will feel the same then. Your opinions are formed on the basis of the environment you find yourselves in, and the environment will be totally different then, just like it was seven years ago. Also don't forget that we're probably talking about a cost per view of a fraction of the price of the physical product.

Let's look at it another way. Lots and lots of people now have DVRs, whether a Sky box, a Freeview box, a Freesat box or whatever. These people have tons of material on these that they don't have the physical disk and box for and they seem to be totally happy with this. What's the difference if the media has come down over the internet rather than over the air? Most viewing material is pretty much ephemeral and the more material people have available to them the more ephemeral it will become.

Maybe you lot are the vinyl dinosaurs of this new age, but if so, just like them, you're only going to be a very small part of the marketplace. The vast majority will very happily move into the brave new world of digital media, maybe storing it on their multiple 96TB hard disks in a virtual library, or more likely streaming it on demand whenever they want for a small fee. But you lot are very welcome to stick with your pricey and space-inefficient redundant physical storage if you like - just don't expect the majority of people to feel the same because they will have moved on with the technology.

Originally Posted by Matt306

Of course, everyone in the world will want to download films instead of getting a disc that has a better protective coating than recordable media (unless DRM will mean we won't even be able to do that), or a nice presentation box.

LMFAO. It should be fun if you have to reformat your hard drive

[Kenny Glasgow]

Originally Posted by ncollingridge

You're all guilty of thinking purely in terms of where we are today. Can't you see that things WILL be different in 7 years time? You're like the dinosaurs who said the year before CDs were released that they'll never catch on, or similar just before DVDs were first introduced. Things change, but many people can't see it. "I have not and will not buy video through download. If I pay, I want a physical material, i.e. a disc"

Come on, we're talking about SEVEN YEARS TIME here. A lot can change in that time. Just because right now this instant you feel this way doesn't mean that you will feel the same then. Your opinions are formed on the basis of the environment you find yourselves in, and the environment will be totally different then, just like it was seven years ago. Also don't forget that we're probably talking about a cost per view of a fraction of the price of the physical product.

Let's look at it another way. Lots and lots of people now have DVRs, whether a Sky box, a Freeview box, a Freesat box or whatever. These people have tons of material on these that they don't have the physical disk and box for and they seem to be totally happy with this. What's the difference if the media has come down over the internet rather than over the air? Most viewing material is pretty much ephemeral and the more material people have available to them the more ephemeral it will become.

Maybe you lot are the vinyl dinosaurs of this new age, but if so, just like them, you're only going to be a very small part of the marketplace. The vast majority will very happily move into the brave new world of digital media, maybe storing it on their multiple 96TB hard disks in a virtual library, or more likely streaming it on demand whenever they want for a small fee. But you lot are very welcome to stick with your pricey and space-inefficient redundant physical storage if you like - just don't expect the majority of people to feel the same because they will have moved on with the technology.

I'll say it again, I DO think that downloads will take the place of silver discs in the majority but there will always be people who want to own something physical and collect things. Human nature.

If you think that the UK will have widespread high speed internet access in 7 years you are plain wrong. As for 96TB hard discs.... you never know with the recent advances in giant magnetoresistance.

To get from dial-up modems to where we are now used existing infrastructure. To get to the next stage will require massive investment with roads and pavements being dug up.

However BT has begun to upgrade its exchanges with potentialy 24Mbps max available. They plan to finish by 2025. South Korea has 100Mbps as common
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6924866.stm

[Kenny Glasgow]

Found this

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/technology/6936325.stm

estimated cost to supply 90% of UK users = £10 billion

[mikim]

I can't see downloads being a success in the near future, they will and do exist, and the keen and teccy folk will adopt it with open arms.. yes! But you have to remember that a huge % of the population couldn't give a 5h1t... and many of them don't really know how to use a PC properly yet, so I can't see them adopting any HD, high bandwidth download service. In fact as much as I am seeing them ignore the current HD formats at the moment too. Only this evening I had a conversation with a perfectly intelligent/professional young individual who hadn't even heard of BR or HDDVD Most people really don't care, they are happy with DVD, and will be for years to come.

Plus, unless you live in a populated area, south of England, or on top of a fiber link.. the rest of the country are just never going to see high speed BBand. They have only just done the exchanges where my parents live for 2meg... 10-20 is decades off.

I wish this were different, and I wish the studios etc could get over themselves and join forces to get one format to work, as only they can push HD into the real publics eye. Downloads taking over are many, many, many years off yet. That report was clearly written by idiots shut up in their little egotistical city lives