[Ian J]

As a Palace fan I have been following the speculation that one of a number of Premiership clubs is about to sign up our prized asset for anything between £6.5m and £8.5m

AJ is a 24 year old (part time) England International that has proven goal scoring ability in the Premiership and ended up last season as the top English goalscorer despite playing in a less than successful team and he will continue to bang in goals week in week out at the highest level for whoever signs him.

Theo Walcott is a 16 year old boy who has been playing Championship football for ten minutes and is reputedly been the offer of bids ranging from £12.5m to £16.5m depending on where you read it.

What is it that makes Walcott worth so much more than Johnson ?

[KevD]

I would disagree he has proven scoring ability in the premiership. I think he managed 21 goals in 37 games, which is a good record. But... Marcus Stewart, Micheal Ricketts, even to a lesser degree Kevin Phillips, all managed over twenty goals in their first premiership seasons and what are they doing now? He would need to have scored for a few more seasons to be "proven" Many of Johnsons goals came form his collection of ballet performances in the box, In fact I think it was 8 or 9
Theo Walcott is comppletely uproven but has huge potential, this kids been talked about for two year alraedy! The top clubs are worried about the other clubs having him and him fulfilling his potential and this is where is value comes in. I dont think Chelsea are quaking at the thought of Arsenal signing Johnson.

[DJT75]

Originally Posted by KevD

I would disagree he has proven scoring ability in the premiership. I think he managed 21 goals in 37 games, which is a good record. But... Marcus Stewart, Micheal Ricketts, even to a lesser degree Kevin Phillips, all managed over twenty goals in their first premiership seasons and what are they doing now? He would need to have scored for a few more seasons to be "proven" Many of Johnsons goals came form his collection of ballet performances in the box, In fact I think it was 8 or 9
Theo Walcott is comppletely uproven but has huge potential, this kids been talked about for two year alraedy! The top clubs are worried about the other clubs having him and him fulfilling his potential and this is where is value comes in. I dont think Chelsea are quaking at the thought of Arsenal signing Johnson.

Couldn't agree more. Johnson is a good goalscorer but I personally wouldn't pay more than £6m for him (it's other players unrealistically priced that make that seem low but it's about right). Walcott could be the next Rooney - if someone doesn't sign him now they may miss out on the opportunity in the future. £12.5m sounds like the actual fee, it's a big gamble but it's one that's more likely to come off than not (or at least he won't be worthless in a few years). Arsenal figure £12.5m now & get him against a possible £30m in a few years time is good business whereas other teams aren't prepared to make that commitment.........Also, Arsenal have needed to do this the last few years, their academy has pretty much dried up & they've concentrated on buying in youngsters.........

[DJT75]

& before anyone accuses me of baiting Overkill - this is fact (IMO) & I wish Arsenal all the best with Walcott, it's go for English football, it's good for England & I'm jealous we ain't signing him...

[Ian J]

Originally Posted by KevD

Many of Johnsons goals came form his collection of ballet performances in the box, In fact I think it was 8 or 9

He may have scored 8 or 9 penalties last season but they weren't all "generated" by him.

Is Walcott as hot a prospect as Jermaine Pennant was as a young teenager ?

[Dazza Cole]

There's no comparison between Walcott and Pennant. Even Real Madrid have enquired about him. If he fulfills even half of his potential, he's going to be something very special indeed.

This from a very despondant saints fan

[DJT75]

I still think Pennant can be a far bigger player than he currently is. Birmingham are having a very poor season but put him in a decent team & as long as he behaves himself he could develop into a England contender...

[Steven]

This is what Rafa meant about over-inflated prices for British players, so he goes abroad for players who are as good or better, yet cheaper

[la gran siete]

Fair comment

[NapoleonGuitarSolo]

But... Marcus Stewart, Micheal Ricketts, even to a lesser degree Kevin Phillips, all managed over twenty goals in their first premiership seasons and what are they doing now?

Don't forget super Dean Sturridge

[Abbeygoo]

£12.5m is a lot of money for unproven talent - he has started about 8 games for Southampton in the Championship. A hell of a leap of faith by Arsenal or Chelsea for the lad, presumably there's a smaller payment up front followed by payments dependant on appearances / success etc.

I would argue that the timing of the transfer is all wrong. Why doesn't he continue playing first team football for the Saints - his big money move can come in the summer or next January, if need be. Another Shaun Wright-Phillips, I hope not, as Chelsea's embarrasingly deep pockets have affected SWP's form and certainly England's squad for the World Cup.

£6m for Andy Johnson?
£7m for Dean Ashton?
£12.5m for Theo Walcott?
£21m for Shaun Wright Phillips?
£28m for Wayne Rooney?

or Andrew Cole for free?

[Steven]

Why's he worth double figures?

There are loads of kids on the continent who can run fast! - Arsene wants another for the collection?

[overkill]

Originally Posted by Abbeygoo

£12.5m is a lot of money for unproven talent - he has started about 8 games for Southampton in the Championship. A hell of a leap of faith by Arsenal or Chelsea for the lad, presumably there's a smaller payment up front followed by payments dependant on appearances / success etc.

I would argue that the timing of the transfer is all wrong. Why doesn't he continue playing first team football for the Saints - his big money move can come in the summer or next January, if need be. Another Shaun Wright-Phillips, I hope not, as Chelsea's embarrasingly deep pockets have affected SWP's form and certainly England's squad for the World Cup.

£6m for Andy Johnson?
£7m for Dean Ashton?
£12.5m for Theo Walcott?
£21m for Shaun Wright Phillips?
£28m for Wayne Rooney?

or Andrew Cole for free?

Sadly, this is the net result of the diabolical Bossman ruling. Now clubs, instead of grooming a player until he's old enough to move on having proved himself, can insist on a ludicrous get out clauses etc, and set off a quite frankly daft spiral of transfer fees. £12 million? I can think of few schools I'd rather spend that on. I wonder if the real reason behind all profligate spending is to persuade a current Arsenal player (or two) they mean business?

The transfer spiral in the 80's ended in tears, this one will too.

[JohnG]

I'm sure that if Walcott goes to Arsenal and learns from what Tony Adams and Paul Merson did there, he can be every bit as big of a drinker as Pennant became
This kind of thing is one of the reasons for me getting fed up with football, silly money for players wages and transfers.

[dgc]

Buying expensive young players is always risky.
I remember Liverpool buying 16 year old Wayne Harrison in 1985 from Wigan for £250,000. The fee caused much disbelief at the time. Unfortunately he didn't make the grade due to a bad injury.

Twenty years on and the same "outrage" at teenage player prices still occurs. There is a major difference between £250,000 and £12.5m but simply a reflection of the current ludicrous market generally.

He's only worth it because people are prepared to pay it.

[Abbeygoo]

Originally Posted by dgc

Buying expensive young players is always risky.
I remember Liverpool buying 16 year old Wayne Harrison in 1985 from Wigan for £250,000. The fee caused much disbelief at the time. Unfortunately he didn't make the grade due to a bad injury.

Twenty years on and the same "outrage" at teenage player prices still occurs. There is a major difference between £250,000 and £12.5m but simply a reflection of the current ludicrous market generally.

He's only worth it because people are prepared to pay it.

It was Oldham Athletic, sorry to put that right.

The point though is well made. The value of the player is always judged by what someone is prepared to pay. Rooney, at 18, is well worth the fee paid by United as not only is one of the world's best players now, he will be for the next 10 years as well. As long as he doesn't start on the slippery slope.

[Jeff]

Apparently he only cost £5M anyway.

[Abbeygoo]

Originally Posted by Jeff

Apparently he only cost £5M anyway.

£5M is the upfront free - the remainder of the agreed price will be paid as Walcott makes certain numbers of appearances and if he plays for England. The total will rise to an estimated £12.5m

[Jeff]

Sure but if they end up paying £12.5M then he will have been worth it. They are only risking £5M.