[johntheexpat]

No hidden agenda here but I thought it would be 'nice' to have a thread about extremes of weather.
(If we could leave out any direct references to Global Warming, let people reach their own conclusions, but note the extreme weather events and their possible consequences, the thread should be more interesting)

Obviously the Russian record breaking heatwave is noteworthy, having seen temperatures breaking all records and staying there for weeks on end. Then also throw in the devastating effect it has had on the harvest and the consequent hike in wheat prices.

Then there are the floods in Pakistan,

The worst floods in Pakistan's history have hit at least 14 million people, officials say.

Both these events seem to have another unusual feature in common, that is the longevity of the severe weather. If the russian heatwave had been a few days of hot weather, it would have broken records and we could all move on. But it went on for weeks and weeks. So to with the Pakistan floods. I realise it is the Monsoon season, but from what I gather, the record breaking quantities of rain are still continuing with no real sign of Mother nature reigning back the downpour to a 'normal' monsoon.


Then throw in Niger, where due to an extreme drought the crops failed and that was followed by rain so heavy that the river Niger reached its highest level for 80 years.


There is certainly some interesting weather around.

[Wild Weasel]

Guardian blogger and editor of its American version, Michael Tomasky hopes there will be much more adverse weather in order to push the global warming agenda:

I sometimes imagine what it would take, weather-wise, for people to see that we have to do something about this. It puts one in the odd and perhaps I confess morally unsupportable position of cheering for a certain amount of calamity, the better to put the crisis in stark relief, but hopefully not too much calamity, lest many die.

But not too much. Which is jolly nice of him.

Russia, Pakistan and food for thought | Michael Tomasky | Comment is free | guardian.co.uk

[deckingman]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

,


There is certainly some interesting weather around.

Always has been, always will be.

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

(If we could leave out any direct references to Global Warming,....)

[Wild Weasel]

Well you shouldn't have posted this thread in the Global Warming forum then.

[Stephen Wilde]

The recent adverse weather events are partly down to faster reporting techniques, a lot more media entities requiring something to say and lots more people in areas prone to be affected.

That said those recent events are severe and remind me of the prolonged atmospheric 'blocking' events that have occurred many times before in history.

The UK 1962/3 winter, the cold European winters of the 40s. the US Dust Bowls were all a result of just such a phenomenon whereby weather patterns remained in situ for up to months at a time.

Such 'blocking' seems to occur when the jet streams are free to loop about latitudinally instead of being compressed into a fast moving narrower band.

I have described my opinion of the causes of such changes at length here and elsewhere.

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by Stephen Wilde

I have described my opinion of the causes of such changes at length here and elsewhere.

As noted in the thread title, this is about weather. Weather is not climate change. Extremes in weather may in some quarters be reported as down to climate change, but realistically, only time will tell. Records are always going to be broken, but when they start reporting that a record number of weather records have been broken in a given period, then the start of the proof may be in the offing.

Still, here's another record that has been broken.

The cool-down comes after downtown L.A. recorded the highest temperature ever -- 113. Long Beach tied for the hottest day ever recorded.

From here

[nickbat]

In my humble opinion, there is no evidence to suggest that adverse weather is any more prevalent than before. Broken "records" are, very often, quite meaningless as the records in question often only go back a few decades.

There is a very good site here, where the researcher has done a great job in piecing together what evidence exists to produce a look back over [mainly UK, but also European] weather over many centuries. It really does make fascinating reading, but equally sober reading, as there is evidence that our forefathers endured very turbulent weather indeed.

Climate History in the British Isles

Here's one picked at random:

1236
Very heavy rain January to March: two floods in London in 1236. The first, which flooded Westminster Palace early in the year, was due to heavy prolonged rain.

The second was produced by a high (storm-surge) tide in November, drowned many people and a great number of cattle in the Woolwich area. An inundation in Norfolk by the sea destroyed flocks of sheep & herds of cattle, tore up trees and demolished houses. In one village alone about 100 people died. This must have been a major wind-driven event, caused by a violent depression, very low pressure & high winds.

However, the summer of this year was noted as dry/hot in London/South.

Enjoy!

[TheForge]

We live on a thin crust of solidified magma on the surface of a planet which is rotating around its axis at over 1000 MPH

While spinning at this speed the planet it self is orbiting a giant fusion reactor (Sol) at over 65,000MPH

All this while the Entire solar system is orbiting the center of the Milkyway Galaxy at almost 500,000 MPH!

And we are supprised when the weather gets a bit choppy!

A stable weather pattern is an illusion, beacuse the life span of humans is so short and the timeframe the world works on is counted in eons it appears to us that the weather we have today is how it should be.

What we have today is the calm before the storm, we are in the eye of the hurricane so to speak, between an Ice Age and a Global Tropical period.

I expect the weather to get much worse over the next 10 years with periods of calm and extremes.

The Forge
Get to Higher Ground then dig a bunker!

[johntheexpat]

Well, it wasn't adverse weather, in fact it was rather pleasant. Today was the warmest November day ever recorded in France. Not quite sure of the exact parameters of the statement, perhaps on average across the whole of France or maybe just in Paris, but whatever, its another broken record.

[Wild Weasel]

It caused by all those burning braziers the French strikers have going.

[johntheexpat]

Coldest November night on record in parts of UK

Coldest on record, in parts. That fits the bill then!

[Wild Weasel]

Following public research, the Met Office no longer issues long-range forecasts for the general public; instead we provide a monthly outlook on our website.

FAIL

Met Office: Winter forecast?

[johntheexpat]

Johntheexpats forecast for the winter.:

The winter will be relatively cold (compared to summer) and the days will be shorter and the nights longer. There will be wind, rain and snow and the temperature will dip below freezing several times. Occasional days of bright winter sunshine will be a pleasant change and the weather will start to change for the better about March. But this winter especially remember the old adage:
'Ne'er cast a clout 'til May be out'.

Coldest November night on record for Orleans (Loire Valley) last night, a cool -14C. I am not that far away but we only managed a relatively modest -7C

[sidicks]

I keep seeing articles about this freezing weather being evidence of man-made global warming - something to do with increased likelihood of extreme weather (despite their being strong evidnce that recent weather has been no more or less extreme than in past decades).

Aside from the issue about weather being different to climate, what sort of conditions do we need to experience that casts doubt on the whole MMGW issue?

Sidicks

[Kebabhead]

It's all tosh

We can't even predict the weather let alone why extremities happen in the first place

[Toko Black]

Originally Posted by Kebabhead

It's all tosh

We can't even predict the weather let alone why extremities happen in the first place

I can't easily predict where the ink dye in the bath will spread as the currents of hot water in the bath move it around jostled with the surface cooling affects.
However I can tell you if I put more hot water in it will affect the temperature of the water as a whole.
I can tell you if I insulate the bath with a cover, the water will retain it's heat longer.

Forecasting weather on a daily or weekly basis for a region or area is somewhat different to measuring and predicting global climate change over long periods of time.

Getting an understanding of why they are different could go some way to helping people see why they need to get a better understanding of the science and issues at hand before jumping to conclusions.

[johntheexpat]

So, not really a record breaking weather post, but related.

Every day for the last few days French news has reported record electricity usage.

Last night in the early evening it hit 94,200MW. A combination of things probably, cold weather, higher fossil fuel prices, relatively cheap electricity and more energy hungry gadgets.

But a record, none-the-less, so there you have it.

[Leej]

I've deleted a few posts. Could we please stick to Johns request below.

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

No hidden agenda here but I thought it would be 'nice' to have a thread about extremes of weather.
(If we could leave out any direct references to Global Warming, let people reach their own conclusions, but note the extreme weather events and their possible consequences, the thread should be more interesting)

[bjd]

Don't know if this qualifies, but it sure is purty:

BBC News - Ohio lighthouse covered in ice after US arctic blast

[johntheexpat]

A huge storm system has dumped record amounts of rain on southern California and prompted concern that the poor weather could spread across the US.

That little gem was from the BBC.

However I must confess that looking through the LA Times website about the storms, I couldn't find any references to 'records being broken'

So it may be that its just the BBC overstating the matter. (Not that the British media get hysterical or anything about this kind of stuff )

Or perhaps the West Coast Americans just take this kind of stuff in their stride.

[Oggie]

BBC News - Australian flooding 'to last weeks'

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by Oggie

BBC News - Australian flooding 'to last weeks'

One last desperate attempt by the Aussies to not lose a Test Series. They will go to any lengths.

[Oggie]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

One last desperate attempt by the Aussies to not lose a Test Series. They will go to any lengths.

I like it

[johntheexpat]

Go on then, admit it, you all knew this anyhow.......

Britain Had Its Coldest December Since Records Began 100 Years Ago

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

One last desperate attempt by the Aussies to not lose a Test Series. They will go to any lengths.

Oh dear, those Aussies just don't know how to Rain Dance

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

Go on then, admit it, you all knew this anyhow.......

So the UK has its coldest December on record and France has its warmest start to a January day. 17.4C at Biarritz this morning according to the meteo on Telematin France2.

[bjd]

Snow present in 49 of the 50 U.S. states – This Just In - CNN.com Blogs

[Leej]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

Go on then, admit it, you all knew this anyhow.......

It's hard to believe that just recently I left the house at 8AM and the temperature was -11 and then leaving at 8AM today it was +12

[johntheexpat]

Well, Queensland, Australia was mentioned in dispatches a few posts ago, but they keep on getting hammered.

After the worst floods in the state's history, Queenslanders are being told to brace for the most catastrophic storm ever to hit their shores.

The next few hours should tell.