Double Dip Recession is Here!
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| | #61 | |
| Eminent Member | Quote:
i think i have made my views very clear on that matter .Whilst i accept NL has some responsibility in the matter, they are far from being the sole culprits | |
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| | #62 | |
| Conspicuous Member | Quote:
NL were both complicit in the causes (banking de-regulation) and to blame for not balancing their books properly. They are not solely to blame for the recession or credit crunch but they certainly hold some responsibility for our ability to get out of the hole were in. If we'd been left with some money in the kitty or (much) smaller structural deficit, infrastructural investment as a course out of recession may have been a legitimate solution. Keynesianism needs saving in the good times, few governments ever do this as the electorate wants any and all money available spend on them and now. We're in a hole and I can't see how digging is gonna help us, it will be interesting to see what happens in the US now that the government subsidies are running out. | |
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| | #63 |
| Senior Member |
According to the CBI and the coalition government the UK needs £200 billion worth of infrastructure improvements to increase UK competitiveness. According to the coalition government we also need more housing. In a economic downturn do we not have the resources to do these things sitting unemployed or underemployed, if we have the spare capacity in the economy why not put it to use building a better future. How would making the needed improvments to UK infrastructure and building the needed housing be harmful to the UK economy? |
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| | #64 | |
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Infrastructure improvements? That's a different ballgame - but what does it mean? Very nebulous wording! | |
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| | #65 | |
| Senior Member | In the short term I would expect a collapse in the housing market to be disasterous. So best avoided. But a long term drop in house prices in real terms I think would be good for the economy. People need houses to live in. Improving worker mobility and improving quality of life might increase productivity. Reducing the cost of housing in the long term could result in less earned income going on mortgages or rent with more available for consumer consumption of goods and services, so resulting in more demand in the economy. It might also reduce the landlord class, possibly making these people more productive in the economy. Money might also be invested more productively. Houses in the long term being lower value in real terms could also result in less debt in the economy. The house being a major asset on which money is borrowed and which gives consumers a false feeling of wealth. More housing, lower housing costs could also result in less government money being spent on housing benefit currently about £20 billion a year. That saving could be used to for example lower VAT, a £10 billion saving would be equivalent to being able to lower VAT by about 1.9%. Quote:
I would hope fulfilling the wish lists of UK businesses as far as infrastructure would be a good thing for the economy in the long term. Last edited by dovercat; 27-04-2012 at 5:05 PM. | |
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| | #66 |
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Sidicks I take it the UK economy failing to recover from the recession and flat lining for two years followed by us now going into a double dip recession, has not been enough to shake you confidence in the merit of coalitions economic policy. Having a economy failing to grow or shrinking is a great way to make your spending less affordable. So should we increase the cuts, or do you think the coalition will eventually get fed up of failing to meet it's economic predictions, lose confidence in it's economic policy, switch to plan B or A+ or whatever. Making economic growth the priority rather than cuts. |
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| | #67 |
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I'm no genius and do not understand half of it but the only thing I cannot get is why the coalition is hammering the average Joe so hard which in turn is destroying all and any chance of a recovery. And what's all this about a double dip recession? We never got out of it in the first place! I do not agree with hitting the super rich as thy have earned it and made sacrifices at some point in their life's I imagine but they should be made to pay their way for starters and secondly stop hitting the working public so hard. It's simple math if the average joe has more money he will spend more money which in turn helps the recovery, keeps people in work, businesses in production and stimulates the economy. As a father of 4 at one point I could take my children either cinema or for a family meal once a week.... I can't anymore and have not done in along time because of the times but I'm sure I am just one of many millions up and down the country and that all adds up to alot of money and investment in the economy that is missing. If I can understand that surely so can Cameron? I must stress these are merely my opinions so people don't go too hard on me lol. |
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| | #68 | ||
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Despite ongoing crisis in the Eurozone, our chief export area, the Coalition has still managed to meet the recent borrowing target. As has has been said before, we you have this much debt and an economy which has been built on excess public spending and debt, then inevitably the correction will take time to resolve. Quote:
Unfortuantely, to appease the masses, the government have to prodcue unrealistic growth expectations which they are inevitably not going to meet with a very strong tail wind. Currently there are a number of head winds! The point is we have a huge deficit and need to make significant cuts - growth is nowhere near sufficient to close the gap. Sidicks | ||
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| | #69 | ||||
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| | #70 | |
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Money has to be spent in order for money to be made. Making cuts left right and centre stops more money being spent I agree but does not help bring more money in. It's like a pawnbroker selling second hand goods but not buying anymore because he can't shift current stock. Eventually the business goes under, economy is no different... Regarding second quote Investment and consumption indeed are two different things but you cannot have one without the other. Whether it be going cinema, family meal, day out, etc you are putting into the pot which pays wages, bills, etc which is then reinvested pretty much the same way over and over again. If businesses do well they then expand creating more jobs, more opportunities which can help create investment opportunities... Regarding third quote I do think I look at things too simple but maybe that's the problem with this country. Really hope I have not made myself look stupid. | |
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| | #72 | |||||
| Conspicuous Member | Agreed that VAT has increased but only by 2.5% and only on 'luxury' items. The reason that people are not buying goods e.g. TVs is not because the VAT has increased by 2.5% making a £1,000 TV £25 more expensive. The reason is that they can no longer readily get credit to buy the TV in the first place, meaning thet can't really afford it! Quote:
How much has been spent bailing out the EU - how much is actual cost and how much is a guarantee or a loan to be repaid? Who is increasing rent? Hasn't council tax been frozen for most people? Quote:
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There is no money to invest! Quote:
The scary thing is that despite income taxes, high VAT, huge fuel duty, high council tax etc etc, the government's income is still 25-30% lower than it needs to be to fund the outgo. This shows how out of control the spending currently is! Last edited by sidicks; 27-04-2012 at 10:20 PM. | |||||
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| | #73 | |
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Except public spending is actually increasing year after year, and we are spending £150bn more every year than we earn - surely some hardship and cutbacks are inevitable?? Agreed to some extent, but the balance is all wrong. We have huge public and private debt and that needs to be addressed. People need to re-assess what is affordable, and that means slower growth in the meantime. There is no money to invest! Certainly not, you make some good points. Public lending is increasing and that in my eyes is because all actual cash is accounted for in bills. Me personally I have only one credit card and that's for both me and my wife and yes cutbacks are indeed needed and should of been enforced years ago in my eyes but it is the nature and speed of these cutbacks that I feel is the problem. People are going to keep borrowing and spending more then they earn because their costs of living have gone up and their actual income barely covers the basics. I properly am wrong but the way Cameron and Osborne is doing it is wrong. It's like taking a smoker who has gone from 20 fags a day to 5... Some it will work with but the majority will crash and burn and that's what's happened here. It's only going to get worst. And I know this because of the nature of my job | |
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| | #74 | |||
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Luxury items, Sky TV, nights out etc etc are not 'basics'! Quote:
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| | #75 | |
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![]() as for the recession , the previous Government did manage to pull us out of it but having lost the election werent able to see the fruits of their endevours fully takes place.Instead we got a coalition which set about a slash and burn policy which severely damaged any chance of recovery as we are now running for almost a year with virtually no growth, hence the double dip. Millions out of work and nowhere near enough jobs to fill the gap.It could have been worse if the Tories had won an outright majority so i guess we should be grateful for that as they are wedded to an ideology which has at its core the rolling back of the state in as many areas as possible,including the NHS The rich have not been hit particularly as they employ clever accountants who severely limit their tax due in various avoidance scams.Many, if not most, pay nothing like what they should do, so its left up to the rest of us to pick up the tab You are of course right that given more money people will spend more but its also about confidence,A lot of people are plain scared of losing their jobs so are reluctant to spend in a way they might have don in the past.thats why i and many others believe the current strategy is plain wrong.The cuts should have been done over a prolonged period over which sustained growth would have put us in a much stronger position to do so .I admit this is a matter of opinion as others think differently. What is happening is a criminal waste but i am hopeful that, come the election, the Tories will be punished.Unfortunately a new admin will have to make good the damage done much as it had to do back in the nineties You are free to express your opinions here as well all are but please dont feel intimidated by anyone.Post your piece for it is of much value as anyone else's | |
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| | #76 | |
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The reason I feel this also is because when Cameron does get it even and he will the public will hate him to such a point they will go back to Labour which means it happens all over again. | |
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| | #77 |
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I better start sorting the house out before the misses comes back lol but in short the cuts were too fast and too much in my eyes. The argument can be had by both sides but I still believe a slower and less intensive approach would of been the better way to go about it and given a more guaranteed rate of success where at the moment as it stands it can go either way. I still think we are doomed and the Coalitions plans are going to fail.
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| | #78 | |||||
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However focusing on borrowing targets rather than growth targets is rather my point. Quote:
The problem is primarily that we had a severe recession causing borrowing to leap up from 40% of GDP and resulting in lower GDP forecasts so less predicted future income to pay our debts. Do you view a smaller UK economy as a necessary correction. I would like to see the UK economy grow. Quote:
I do not see it as the UK embracing a sustainable economy. I see it as a economy dead in the water, going nowhere. Quote:
If global or eurozone headwinds are to blame, why are other countries doing better than us as far as economic growth. We look to be a object lesson in the stupidity of austerity minus a credible plan for growth, along with all the other countries that have gone down the route of austerity. Quote:
But the size of the structural deficit, and the severity of the cuts needed are dependent on the expected economic growth. Cutting government spending during a economic downturn is self defeating if doing so lowers economic growth. That lower economic growth results in a bigger structural deficit, if the answer then is to cut spending further it looks to be like a downward spiral. Austerity causing lack of economic growth, so more austerity is introduced, causing lack of economic growth, etc... A economy going nowhere or shrinking. The key objective should be economic growth. With a credible long term plan to fix the structural deficit seen as a necessary evil. Last edited by dovercat; 27-04-2012 at 10:55 PM. | |||||
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| | #79 | |
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like I said before my views are quite simple but maybe that's what we need
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| | #80 | |
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| | #81 | |||||
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If you make smaller cuts slower, you have to make them for much longer - turning this into a 10 year recovery period not a 5 year one. Given what is happening in Europe at the moment, it is naive to think that the 'spend our way out of travel' wouldn;t have put the country in even more trouble: Significantly increasing debt Significantly increasing interest rates Knock-on impact on mortgages, reducing spending etc Low growth etc Quote:
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| | #83 | |
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| | #84 |
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That and I would not want my kids to see as a lazy bum.
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| | #85 | ||||
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If debt is paid pack too slowly, interest rates increase and the debt soon gets out of control. Quote:
![]() Sidicks | ||||
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| | #86 | |
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How is it making it up? It's simple logic. Has it not occurred you to that rising taxes and the coalitions approach on the situation has helped drive some businesses out of business or made companies lay off thousands of workers which in toe makes more people unemployed, less people contributing and therefore costing more money that the government has to account for? Saying that train of thought is made up is no more then that of the governments. However debt being paid back at a slower rate does incur more interest I agree with you but at least it gets paid. What the government is doing is putting all money into one debt and allowing other problems to manifest in its place... Rising unemployment, no growth in the economy, businesses shutting down but to name a few. Has it not occurred to you that we could start out slow and then make bigger payments down the line when we are more stable? With our economy the way it is we will lose our AAA rating down the line anyway. Not so much because of our debt because we will have that in some sort of order but because as a country our economy will not earn enough which in turn comes down to the fast and somewhat thoughtless actions of this government and the lack of growth which they have not stimulated at all | |
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| | #87 | |
| Conspicuous Member | Quote:
Your confidence has grown amazingly over the last few posts, as well as the strength of your opinions. Communicating with Sidicks has also enhanced the way you put your points across, it's all beginning to come out. Wonderful to see such rapid development on the political front! | |
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| Thanks from: | Sephiroth0000 (28-04-2012) |
| | #88 | |
| Eminent Member | Quote:
All the while in parallel universe called banking sector ,the likes of Bob Diamond awards themselves disgustingly large salaries and bonuses Last edited by la gran siete; 28-04-2012 at 9:10 AM. | |
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| | #89 | |||
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Sephiroth0000 has stated that he would be £200 a week better off if his wife and he did not work. That's £10k a year extra from not working. Something is wrong somewhere. Quote:
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![]() Sidicks | |||
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| | #90 | |
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Emotive indeed and with good reason.Plunge people into a desperate situation and they will do desperate things In which case benefit claimants can also do what they like | |
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