HD DVD price cuts on the horizon

[The News Bot]

Are the prices of HD DVD players about to tumble? Speculation is mounting that backers of the HD DVD format will announce big price drops for third generation HD DVD hardware at next week’s CES. Yoshihide Fujii, president and chief executive officer of the Toshiba digital media network company would not be drawn on the [...]
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[sbowler]

Final nail in the coffin for Blu-ray?

[enablerbro1]

If MS had got its HD add on out a year ahead of when it did then the war would have been over before it started.

[sp5906]

I'd be more inclined to suggest that the drops will be a preventative measure because it is looking more and more certain that blu-ray is about to take off.

There is no denying that cheaper tech is going to be a draw but bear in mind that most of us here are tech geeks and early adopters. The masses will decide the final outcome. Yeah HD-DVD has got some great movies, but you are only talking a handful. Blu-Ray rules in studio support and title line up and will do this year full stop; when you are buying a movie player, ultimately this is the most important factor next to reliablilty and ease of use. The layman doesn't know about DTS MA, DOLBY TRUE HD, LPCM, 60Hz and Judder 1080p/24, HDMI 1.3 etc etc. He/She will want to know what movies are available and will be looking at the basics - 1080p and HDMI.

The tech behind Blu-Ray is far in advance of its competitor and therefore so is its potential.

I would anticipate HD-DVD players being priced around £250 -£400 model dependant hoping to sway people by price but without a decent line up of movies, sales will plateau. Simple as that. I doubt that blu-ray decks from the big hitters will be discounted much below £800 this year and they won't need to. You might see Samsung / LG price their Blu-Ray machines around £400 - £500 over here and about $400 - $500 in the states.

Let's face it, Toshiba is no better than Samsung /LG when it comes to finance or tech so provided the lower end Blu-Ray machines are comparible that balances the market. Sony and Pioneer can keep their prices high. Just look at how quickly the DV-989 sold out on release at nearly £1000 for a dvd player.

What we have seen so far has been premature release of Blu-Ray machines and discs compared with HD-DVD, but the fact is, the latter is the simpler technology. Early Blu-Ray discs were released in MPEG2 for no other reason than it was quicker and easier to release them using established methods. Next we have critiscism over BD-Java issues, 50gb disc issues and lack of DTS-MA and TRUE HD. All issues that will be sorted in Gen 2 players. Early adopters buying gen 1 equipment will always have to settle with incompatibility if issues can't be fixed with firmware.

Despite what the official message is ref MPEG2 etc, i suspect the reason that some big titles have been delayed on Blu is pending BD-Java and AVC codec implementation. MPEG2 was a stop-gap solution.

2007 will see masses of Blu-Ray titles from Disney, Warner, Paramount and Sony and while we will see some of these titles on HD-DVD there will be a gaping gap in quality or blockbuster releases on this format. HD-DVD sales will slow and Blu-Ray sales will begin to gather real momentum. When this happens Universal studios will probably start to release on Blu as well. You won't see Toshiba give out quickly but it will be a slow and painful death for them I suspect.

Thats why Tosh are cutting prices if that's what happens. Monopoly in a market will win in business. That's what Blu-Ray has. Like it or not.

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by enablerbro1

If MS had got its HD add on out a year ahead of when it did then the war would have been over before it started.

If they had, it would have been in the 360 and we would have prevented all those MS giving us a "choice" threads also.

[LOXjet]

More miss-information and facts.

Originally Posted by sp5906

Yeah HD-DVD has got some great movies, but you are only talking a handful. Blu-Ray rules in studio support and title line up and will do this year full stop.

Originally Posted by sp5906

2007 will see masses of Blu-Ray titles from Disney, Warner, Paramount and Sony and while we will see some of these titles on HD-DVD there will be a gaping gap in quality or blockbuster releases on this format.

A handful... it might be worth you doing some research before you post statements like that!

It's common knowledge that until recently HD DVD had more titles available. As for quality, most people seem to prefer the current range of HD DVD titles over the Blu-ray ones.

As for the future, try this list, hardly a handful is it (and I'm sure there will be lots more to come in 2007 and beyond)?

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

Don't forget also... that list is mostly American releases and some Blu-ray exclusives in USA are HD DVD exclusives in Europe.

And what about all the smaller studios & distributors that are supporting HD DVD & not Blu-ray, i.e. Pathe & Canal Plus (they alone have a very impressive European catalogue they are starting to release on HD DVD).

What about the BBC (2Entertain) supporting only HD DVD at present (Planet Earth in HD DVD confirmed for this year).

Add all these together and the studio support for HD DVD is far better than people would have you believe. I believe it is slightly tipped in favour of Blu-ray in the US and HD DVD in Europe.

Originally Posted by sp5906

The tech behind Blu-Ray is far in advance of its competitor and therefore so is its potential.

Really? That's a very sweeping statement, care to explain how you feel it's more advanced?

This is often quoted but in actuality a myth. Because HD DVD is an evolution of DVD it is somehow considered inferior, when in-fact I believe this to be one of it's strengths.

Last time I checked, HD DVD & Blu-ray used the same video & audio technology (codecs). Saying that, it's also common knowledge that Blu-ray has received bad press for Sony's persistence in using MPG2 (and not VC1) and Warner leaving HD sounds tracks off of the Blu-ray discs (but not the HD DVD equivalent).

Blu-ray does offer slightly more storage space, but HD DVD still has more than enough todo the job (and worse case they ship multi discs ala DVD).

The only other difference is the way that discs are authored, but one is not "better" than the other. I did read somewhere that the Blu-ray method can be tricky to design. The Blu-ray group was asked to adopt the HD DVD standard but refused.

So not technically superior as you believe either...

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by Vasquez

The only other difference is the way that discs are authored, but one is not "better" than the other. I did read somewhere that the Blu-ray method can be tricky to design. The Blu-ray group was asked to adopt the HD DVD standard but refused.

So not technically superior as you believe either...

On the same token, not technically inferior either. I am no technical expert and I perceive you're not either, but has it ever intrigued you why so many of CE manufacturers decided on Blu-ray. Do you really think they chose a technically harder to acomplish, harder to implement, more costly to implement format, if they didn't believe there was going to be "advantage" for doing so. Do you not think, that introducing a new format that needed new significant authoring investment, was something they considered, but still nevertheles felt it was going to be better for them to do it?

Whatever their reasons, "their" experts clearly believed there was some advantages of the format, that meant they chose it. It is not as if some maverick lone CE manaufacturer did it, virtually every CE manufacturer, including Toshiba started on the Blu-ray path.

They must have felt, and probably still do that there was going to be technical and commerical advantages of the format and it was going to worth the billions of $ of investment in equipment and R&D rather than take the "technically superior" HD DVD format?

[LOXjet]

Originally Posted by ani4ani

On the same token, not technically inferior either... rather than take the "technically superior" HD DVD format

Very true, but I never said one was superior to the other, they are just different that's all

Originally Posted by ani4ani

I am no technical expert and I perceive you're not either, but has it ever intrigued you why so many of CE manufacturers decided on Blu-ray. Do you not think, that introducing a new format that needed new significant authoring investment, was something they considered

Well I do work in the technical side of the broadcast industry but, yes, I'm obviously not an expert on the inner workings of Blu-ray and HD DVD

Good point and to be honest, yes I have (interested to hear your take on it too).

My conclusion, rightly or wrongly, was that Sony promised them all the earth, financial sweeteners and who knows what others business deals. I also believe Sony agreed to meet some of the studios & manufacturers demands (i.e. Fox & their region coding).

From what I have seen, no matter how much they try to claim Blu-ray is a group, Sony is the driving force (and look at their track record on failed formats). Of course, with the DVD forum it's seems to be the other way around, things are put to vote by the members (but this means decisions can take longer).

Put all that together and I believe HD DVD is the more consumer friendly product and Blu-ray the more manufacturer\studio friendly one... and I know which I prefer

Given Sony's... one format to rule them all stance... I believe they have more to loose as a result of the LG dual player announcement (than HD DVD does).

I'm sure they are smarting about it right now...

[sp5906]

Originally Posted by Vasquez

More miss-information and facts.





A handful... it might be worth you doing some research before you post statements like that!

It's common knowledge that until recently HD DVD had more titles available. As for quality, most people seem to prefer the current range of HD DVD titles over the Blu-ray ones.

As for the future, try this list, hardly a handful is it (and I'm sure there will be lots more to come in 2007 and beyond)?

http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

Don't forget also... that list is mostly American releases and some Blu-ray exclusives in USA are HD DVD exclusives in Europe.

And what about all the smaller studios & distributors that are supporting HD DVD & not Blu-ray, i.e. Pathe & Canal Plus (they alone have a very impressive European catalogue they are starting to release on HD DVD).

What about the BBC (2Entertain) supporting only HD DVD at present (Planet Earth in HD DVD confirmed for this year).

Add all these together and the studio support for HD DVD is far better than people would have you believe. I believe it is slightly tipped in favour of Blu-ray in the US and HD DVD in Europe.



Really? That's a very sweeping statement, care to explain how you feel it's more advanced?

This is often quoted but in actuality a myth. Because HD DVD is an evolution of DVD it is somehow considered inferior, when in-fact I believe this to be one of it's strengths.

Last time I checked, HD DVD & Blu-ray used the same video & audio technology (codecs). Saying that, it's also common knowledge that Blu-ray has received bad press for Sony's persistence in using MPG2 (and not VC1) and Warner leaving HD sounds tracks off of the Blu-ray discs (but not the HD DVD equivalent).

Blu-ray does offer slightly more storage space, but HD DVD still has more than enough todo the job (and worse case they ship multi discs ala DVD).

The only other difference is the way that discs are authored, but one is not "better" than the other. I did read somewhere that the Blu-ray method can be tricky to design. The Blu-ray group was asked to adopt the HD DVD standard but refused.

So not technically superior as you believe either...

1) The main titles in the list are universal and Warner. Warner titles will be seen on Blu-Ray.

2) The blu-ray tech is better in that it is more dynamic. BD-Java is a full programming language so theoretically what can be done with it is immense. HD-DVD is based around XML. And come on, 50GB vs 30GB?...

3) As explained, it is a near certainty that by the end of the year most BD titles be Sony or otherwise will be encoded in VC1.

The HD DVD standard was rejected because it was believed it could be bettered upon. This may prove to be the wiser move as Blu-Ray has more advanced copy protection in addition to AACS. Now that I think about it... maybe the price reductions are as a result of HD-DVD's AACS being hacked? If something's going to ****** off your backers, that is.

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by Vasquez

.

I'm sure they are smarting about it right now...

I don't know what any of them are thinking- it keeps going around in my head.

It's weird, you can think of all sorts of scenarios, even ones' where you think Toshiba could almost be thinking "the bastards, we have single handidly pushed the format, made losses on it, to make it happen, against all the odds and now everyone is going to come in with dual format players and make money out of it - we took the risk and they all benefit!"

Then you think, Sony could be thinking the "Jesus just as we are getting our act together and we just starting to realise our promises, they then throw the towel in!"

I think we going to have to hear what is said next week, each manufacturer / format / supporter / observer / consumer group is going to tons to say. I just read that a dual format player, whilst technically achievable, is going to be expensive [some hint more than two seperate players?] and some are saying, they will have to pay royalties and license fee's to both sides, whilst both formats co-exist. Some people are saying that they will essentially co-exist as there is no need sell themselves down the river trying to eliminate the other.

I think its a lot more complicated today than it was yesterday - we have gone from a probable simple winner / loser scenario, to we don't need to win anymore and their might not need to be a loser either.

[sp5906]

Dual format players at this stage is a foolish move at this premature stage in the game. The production cost, royalty fees when this year will show some major developments seems pointless.

[LOXjet]

Originally Posted by sp5906

1) The main titles in the list are universal and Warner. Warner titles will be seen on Blu-Ray.

I didn't say they wouldn't, but you implied HD DVD has next to no releases and this couldn't be further from the truth.

Originally Posted by sp5906

2) The blu-ray tech is better in that it is more dynamic. BD-Java is a full programming language so theoretically what can be done with it is immense. HD-DVD is based around XML

Actually iHD (the HD DVD authoring technology) is based around HTML, CSS, XML, SMIL and JavaScript and it has more than proved itself, even on first gen releases.

If you've seen the UControl feature on Toyko Drift you will know what I mean. If you haven't, I advise you to take a look.

As for BD-J, as far as I am aware only the PS3 can play this content at the moment, meaning people are already buying discs for their £1000 players and finding they won't work without an update (which are months away apparently).

Originally Posted by sp5906

3) As explained, it is a near certainty that by the end of the year most BD titles be Sony or otherwise will be encoded in VC1.

Agreed, they would have been silly not too

Originally Posted by sp5906

The HD DVD standard was rejected because it was believed it could be bettered upon. This may prove to be the wiser move...

Laserdisc & Betamax were 'technically superior' to VHS and look how they turned out...

Originally Posted by sp5906

as Blu-Ray has more advanced copy protection in addition to AACS.

And you're happy about that are you?

Originally Posted by sp5906

maybe the price reductions are as a result of HD-DVD's AACS being hacked

You are aware that Blu-ray also uses AACS as part of it's security aren't you?

I’m not trying to put Blu-ray down, just trying to correct a few miss-truths about HD DVD that a select few seem to band around.

[LOXjet]

Originally Posted by ani4ani

It's weird, you can think of all sorts of scenarios...

I have to say, I pretty much agree with all that, always nice to hear others opinions on it.

Thanks

[HCK]

Originally Posted by sp5906

1) And come on, 50GB vs 30GB?...

.

Doesnt HD DVD have a triple layer in the works which bumps it up to 45GB ?

I personally think both will survive and that their is enough room in the market for both formats to be successful..

Originally Posted by sp5906

I'd be more inclined to suggest that the drops will be a preventative measure because it is looking more and more certain that blu-ray is about to take off.

Why,what have we been having over the last 6 months? A practice session? To say that BD is just about to take off 6 months into the format war is a tacit but honest admission of their failure to demolish an UNDERDOG they had so swiftly and arrogantly dismissed from the start. And if indeed true that they are now only starting the fight, then they just brought the word "incompetence" to new depths of meaning.

And a price war at this time s certain to drive BD to eat dust. HD DVD the underdog has immensely surprised industry pundits with its stellar high value performance since day one of launch that has kept BD trailing in hardware and software sales eversince. Now Toshiba is gunning for the kill - a price war that $ony seems to be in no position to undertake, given its nearly non-existent cash positon, lowest stock market value, staggering losses on each PS3 sale and the huge R&D cost for BD to recover.

There is no denying that cheaper tech is going to be a draw but bear in mind that most of us here are tech geeks and early adopters. The masses will decide the final outcome. Yeah HD-DVD has got some great movies, but you are only talking a handful. Blu-Ray rules in studio support and title line up and will do this year full stop; when you are buying a movie player, ultimately this is the most important factor next to reliablilty and ease of use. The layman doesn't know about DTS MA, DOLBY TRUE HD, LPCM, 60Hz and Judder 1080p/24, HDMI 1.3 etc etc. He/She will want to know what movies are available and will be looking at the basics - 1080p and HDMI.

There's only thing that matters to the masses. That's price/performance - value for the money. So far, HD DVD delivers that. The other camp doesn't and will continue not to have it.

A "handful" of titles you say? Did you make any cursory research before posting? BD enjoys only 8000 more titles than HD DVD out of about 108,000 catalogue titles available from Hollywood studios. The proportion is 48,000 film titles for BD and 40,000 for HD DVD as pointed out at AVS and by fellow member Raszack. And with blockbusters at 60%-40% for BD - HD DVD, is that a "handful?" With such percentages, I'd say the match is about on even keel. And considering the fact the cinematic tastes varies widely, so that one's garbage movie is another's treasure find, the proportion of movies for each format becomes irrelevant at those quantities. As it is right now, HD DVD enjoys an edge in the titles it has. Without even mentionng that some BD exclusives in the US are being released as HD DVD by Pathe and Studio Canal in Europe. And people in the US can watch them in their region free HD DVD players.

You seem to underestimate the market for high def. High Def is an upgrade path that EXISTING HT markets will have the option to go into. And among current HT users, there's a greater chance these people already are aware of the those 3-5 letter words used in their hobbies. And they tend to educate themselves with developments in their hobbies. People who are plannng to upgrade to high def and even newbies have most likely sought the advice of pundits on AV forums like this or have gotten word of mouth on how good HD DVD is. After six months into the war, I wouldn't be surprised if the immediate forthcoming markets for high def have already been advised to shy away for BD garbage.

The tech behind Blu-Ray is far in advance of its competitor and therefore so is its potential.

You make it sound the BD is so revolutionary which in reality flies in the fact of that supposed technological advancement as evidenced by what it attempted to do. Had it not been for HD DVD, $ony would have successfully rammed down our throats a 10-year old MPEG2 codec as the definitive high def technology. What is so advance about a 10-year old MPEG2 technology that BD had wanted us to swallow hook line and stinker?

Let's face it, Toshiba is no better than Samsung /LG when it comes to finance or tech so provided the lower end Blu-Ray machines are comparible that balances the market. Sony and Pioneer can keep their prices high. Just look at how quickly the DV-989 sold out on release at nearly £1000 for a dvd player.

You seem to forget that high end machines easily crop up when there's already a mature product penetration in the market where the strategy of marget segmentation and niching becomes viable through pricing or feature differentiation. Not when they are still moving heaven and earth to penetrate the market. And especially the mass market who have no interest in high end expensive stuff.

BD, by beeing snooty, won't sell to the masses at those prices. And it is the mass markets who will determine the winner, not the moneyed early adopters who comprise only 1% of the total HT market. BD's arrogance has been proven by rejecting licensing the Chinese to make their players that HD DVD did. That's a great loss to BD in penetrating markets.

What we have seen so far has been premature release of Blu-Ray machines and discs compared with HD-DVD, but the fact is, the latter is the simpler technology. Early Blu-Ray discs were released in MPEG2 for no other reason than it was quicker and easier to release them using established methods. Next we have critiscism over BD-Java issues, 50gb disc issues and lack of DTS-MA and TRUE HD. All issues that will be sorted in Gen 2 players. Early adopters buying gen 1 equipment will always have to settle with incompatibility if issues can't be fixed with firmware.

Premature? Now that's a vivid and apt indictment of a company that tried to win the high def market foisting half baked ill-conceived products. When all the while the competition has done its homework well before gunning for its intended markets and deservedly got better market penetration. $ony apparently thought the market is composed of idiots and ignoramuses not to notice the yawning difference between what they delivered and what Hd DVD had. Thank you. I'll put my money on products whose makers can be trusted to deliver on their promises and not fool the market.

Issues to be sorted out in their Gen 2 players?? Too late. By then, HD DVD market peneration will be miles away. Especially with the rumoured price cuts.

Despite what the official message is ref MPEG2 etc, i suspect the reason that some big titles have been delayed on Blu is pending BD-Java and AVC codec implementation. MPEG2 was a stop-gap solution.

True, and you could have bought their garbage they were selling to you. What a great company selling stop-gap solution at full high def prices. If only for that, they don't deserve my patronage as a consumer.

2007 will see masses of Blu-Ray titles from Disney, Warner, Paramount and Sony and while we will see some of these titles on HD-DVD there will be a gaping gap in quality or blockbuster releases on this format. HD-DVD sales will slow and Blu-Ray sales will begin to gather real momentum. When this happens Universal studios will probably start to release on Blu as well. You won't see Toshiba give out quickly but it will be a slow and painful death for them I suspect.

Yep, there are gaps in quality alright. With Blurry taking more of inferirority side.

HD DVD sales to slow? I think I heard that line before when PS3 was about to launch. I even heard BD sales will overshoot HD DVD come Nov 17. Total nonsense. Nothng of that sort happened not even with 1M PS3 units already sold. The 360 add-on effectively neutralized whatever advantage PS3 has on the BD format.

As it is, there's more chance of Disney supporting both formats than for Universal doing the same.

Thats why Tosh are cutting prices if that's what happens. Monopoly in a market will win in business. That's what Blu-Ray has. Like it or not.

You must be living in another planet. Or are you referring to the Game of Monopoly?