Market Bounce?

[Toasty]

OK, there has been a sliver of good news in the markets this week, is this a bounce or just a blip pre interest rate announcement?

[andykn]

Dangerous thinking, there was a similar rise around mid Sep when the FTSE went back over 5,000. There have been two almost identical rises more recently both from below 4000 to 4,200 ish and both were followed by similar falls.

I'm going to wait for a more sustained rally.

There's two peaks on this chart that would have looked at the time like it was all over, at the end of May and early Sep:

FTSE 100 Share Price Chart | ^FTSE | GB0001383545 | Yahoo! Finance UK

[loz]

Originally Posted by Toasty

OK, there has been a sliver of good news in the markets this week, is this a bounce or just a blip pre interest rate announcement?

wait till the recession really starts to bite...
then the markets are really going to fall.

2 million unemployed by xmas.
collapse of the housing market, and other big ticket markets like cars.
and that's just for starters.
The knock on effects are going to fuel even further unemployment and a serious drop in the economy.

No amount of government spending is going to stop that because much of that will go on items that have little impact on the consumer market IMHO.
e.g. how is a program of funding increased social housing construction going to compensate for the loss of jobs in financial services, retailing, cars, etc?
It might keep some builders employed, but they themselves won't be fueling the rest of the market sufficiently.

If we are going to be in a serious recession for 2 or 3 years, then its going to get a lot worse yet before it even starts to get better. And in that time, why would stocks go up?

[Toasty]

So that's a couple for the blip count and I do recall the similar climb followed by fall. If it does go back down I guess that does mean we've not bottomed out.

I'm not as pessimistic as Loz, but unfortunately, you make some good points so it cannot be dismissed. I'd only say that the oil price decrease should spread to other product prices falling and coupled with the expected interest rate cuts, spending should hopefully increase helping out a bit..

[shahedz]

Originally Posted by andykn

Dangerous thinking, there was a similar rise around mid Sep when the FTSE went back over 5,000. There have been two almost identical rises more recently both from below 4000 to 4,200 ish and both were followed by similar falls.

I'm going to wait for a more sustained rally.

There's two peaks on this chart that would have looked at the time like it was all over, at the end of May and early Sep:

FTSE 100 Share Price Chart | ^FTSE | GB0001383545 | Yahoo! Finance UK

What this man says! I wouldn't be surprised if it lost all its gains next week

[Lawrenzini]

Dead cat bounce - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

[domtheone]

Markets generally start to price in recover/disaster ahead of time though so if there is to be a recover in the world economy in 2010 (assuming 2009 is a total write off) then i'd cautiously expect an improvement in Share prices next year.

From what lows I don't know though.

The Banks at least won't return to their Share prices of just a year ago, for several years, perhaps a decade, imo.

[LFC_SL]

Obama New President bounce?