[The News Bot]

The number of new swine flu cases in the past week fell by nearly a quarter to 64,000 in England, figures show.

More...

[Mullicious]

Wait, I thought it was supposed to infect 1/3 of us during this time where flu strives?

Guess I was right, eh GasDad?

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Wait, I thought it was supposed to infect 1/3 of us during this time where flu strives?

Guess I was right, eh GasDad?

No - it was expected to hit a 1/3 of the population over a two year period without intervention.

But we've had intervention: antivirals which reduce the vector count, and of course vaccination (particularly of children - the main spreaders), so the projected infection rate will be less than 1/3 by now.

It may be no more lethal than 'normal' flu - but unfortunately the deaths that are occurring are in young adults and children - unlike normal flu which predominately hits the old.

[alexs2]

Originally Posted by GasDad

No - it was expected to hit a 1/3 of the population over a two year period without intervention.

But we've had intervention: antivirals which reduce the vector count, and of course vaccination (particularly of children - the main spreaders), so the projected infection rate will be less than 1/3 by now.

It may be no more lethal than 'normal' flu - but unfortunately the deaths that are occurring are in young adults and children - unlike normal flu which predominately hits the old.

I would say that it's unfortunate that there are deaths in any age group,young or old,and I am sure that this is what you had meant.

What is fortunate is that the overall death rate from this particular strain has been rather lower than first projected,and is lower than "ordinary" flu by some considerable margin.

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by alexs2

I would say that it's unfortunate that there are deaths in any age group,young or old,and I am sure that this is what you had meant.

Yes of course - though as a parent I'd rather loose a grandfather than a child.

What is fortunate is that the overall death rate from this particular strain has been rather lower than first projected,and is lower than "ordinary" flu by some considerable margin.

There seems to be a lot of variable stats on this - it's definitely lower than expected - probably because a large portion of the older (and normally most vulnerable) population seem to be carry a degree of immunity.

I just hope that 5, 10,15, or 30 years down the road, when the next pandemic threatens, that we have the same (or better) level of response from world governments. This time we've probably been lucky (barring any mutated strain appearing) - next time it may start out the same, but be much more serious.

[neilneil]

I think we have been REALLY lucky.

I hope that next time a pandemic hits:-
We have enough intensive care beds. If the government estimations were true then we would fall short by at least a factor of 4. (Source BBC documentry)

We have better deployment of the vaccinations. (some people were complaining that every surgery got sent 500 doses regardless of practice size so some GPs had way too many and some had way too few.)
They should allocate them on the same basis that they to for regular flu vaccinations as the number of high risk cases will be very similar.

And biggest of all I hope that they sort out the GPs payments and targets well before the immunisation program is announced. The government announced that they would immunise all under 5's because of the disproportionate number of deaths in this age group. The GP's and government then proceeded to bicker over how much they were going to get paid and what other targets are allowed to slip. I don't think they have yet reached an agreement and local PCTs have had to make their own arrangements. I still do not know if my under 5 is going to be called up yet.

I am very glad that the number of cases is falling and hope it continues to do so.

-Neil

[RMCF]

I was watching a news report the other day (can't remember if it was a UK or Irish channel), and it mentioned all the millions of vaccines that were either being returned or cancelled before delivery. It mentioned UK, Ireland, France, Germany and it ran into tens of millions.

It was all a damp squib after all.

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by RMCF

It was all a damp squib after all.

Yes it probably was (except for those who died from it) - as above, barring a mutation we've got of lightly this time.

But the thing with squibs is you don't know there damp until they fail to go off.

The same applies to flu outbreaks.