[blackrod]

Just asking because there are so many threads on the whole swine flu thing already, what I am hoping for is a new one on realistic (now) concerns, not what may or may not happen.

For example, my son goes to nursery every working day and he is on his holidays now with his mother, however it has just been released to all parents that one of the kids in his class has flu. Are we supposed to keep sensible about things, such as with seasonal flu (which can and does kill people every year) or are we now thinking that we don't have the resistance first thought and it may be more of a concern, especially to the young?

[Mullicious]

Swine flu is a scare tactic. It's no more deadly than the regular flu. If anything, we should be HOPING we catch it now, so we have some form of immunity to any future mutated version.

People die via flu. It just happens. It's sad, but it happens. Swine flu is not a big deal right now.

[signs]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Swine flu is a scare tactic. It's no more deadly than the regular flu. If anything, we should be HOPING we catch it now, so we have some form of immunity to any future mutated version.

People die via flu. It just happens. It's sad, but it happens. Swine flu is not a big deal right now.

Are you an informed Doctor ?

[neilneil]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Swine flu is a scare tactic. It's no more deadly than the regular flu. If anything, we should be HOPING we catch it now, so we have some form of immunity to any future mutated version.

People die via flu. It just happens. It's sad, but it happens. Swine flu is not a big deal right now.

You sound like you have no one that you care about who is in an 'at risk' group.
Plenty of other people do and would rather it was limited in it's spread thereby reducing the chances of someone at risk getting it.

Having swine flu now in no way guarantees any resistance to any form that the virus might mutate into. But every new case of swine flu is a new opportunity for it to mutate and a new opportunity for it to spread further.

-neilneil

[Barcoing Mad]

Apparently older people are less troubled by swine flu because they have some immunity to it resulting from exposure to a variant of the H5N1 virus.

Certainly exposure to one strain of a virus doesn't guarantee immunity to another, however, in general it helps and is an integral feature of our immune systems - the favourite example taught at school in my day was the immunity of milk maids to small pox owing to their inoculation by cow pox.

There are scenarios in which ensuring everyone caught the present strain as quickly as possible would, over the longer period, minimise the number of deaths. I would imagine various strategies are being modelled in some detail - certainly the UCL suggestion today that schools could be closed indicates this. (Closing schools wouldn't decrease the total number of cases, but spread the peak over a longer period which would enable the maximum load on the NHS to be reduced).

The OP, however, asked, not what may or may not happen, but what realistic concerns should be held. Unfortunately, a realistic concern is that we don't know for certain what will happen! What is certain, however, is that the vast majority people who catch the present strain of swine flu recover, with a boosted immune system as a side effect.

[Mullicious]

I'm not a doctor. My father is, however. He's a GP and knows rather a lot (As much as we do know.) about the H1N1 Virus.

Seriously. Do you know how many people die a year from regular flu? In it's current form, the general population have nothing to worry about. (Other than general worry of flu anyways.)

When it mutates, may God help us all. LOL!

[clc.sheff]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

I'm not a doctor. My father is, however. He's a GP and knows rather a lot (As much as we do know.) about the H1N1 Virus.

Seriously. Do you know how many people die a year from regular flu? In it's current form, the general population have nothing to worry about. (Other than general worry of flu anyways.)

When it mutates, may God help us all. LOL!

I'm sorry but where do you think you are coming from??

Like already said some people here have real decisions to make about real people they care about.

For example I have a 9 week old baby at home and my gran is 94 and still lives on her own.

Do I take him to nursery? Keep him at home? Do I cancell her meals on wheels and deliver all her food during the day? Should I try to expose him to the virus in the hope he'll have strengthened his immune system by winter? Do I go to work or try to stay off?

OR Shall I sit all high and mighty, take an overview of human existance, think that I know it all and if the worst happens have not a shred of regret that I could have done more?

Despite having a Doctor as a parent you clearly know nothing about what you are talking about.

[Garrett]

Originally Posted by clc.sheff

Despite having a Doctor as a parent you clearly know nothing about what you are talking about.

I would not go so far as to go and catch the darn thing, as it does kill some people, but as Mullicious normal flu kill loads annualy. Its a shame people dont take precations rest of the time how often do you see people sneeze and not bother to catch it just spray everywhere. I say about 75% of peeps dont wash there hands that use public toilets.

[Monarch]

As it stands currently the predictions made by doctors and experts still only reach the same fatality rates as regular flu, maybe a bit above. At the moment more people die from regular flu than swine flu (the number of cases of each taken into proportion of course). If swine flu mutates then we need to start to worry about what we're going to do, but currently the vast majority of cases are minor and very few people actually run into complications.

It is a potential concern for the future, but it is hugely buzzed up by the press

[Rorifett]

Originally Posted by Garrett

I say about 75% of peeps dont wash there hands that use public toilets.

This is a funny one, the first thing anyone touches with 'dirty' hands is the tap.

The last thing they touch with 'clean' hands is the tap, surely that's a design flaw there? (or the door push-panel - here's hoping the person who touched that same spot within the past 24 hours has washed their hands eh?!!!).

[Rorifett]

Originally Posted by Monarch08

As it stands currently the predictions made by doctors and experts still only reach the same fatality rates as regular flu, maybe a bit above. At the moment more people die from regular flu than swine flu (the number of cases of each taken into proportion of course). If swine flu mutates then we need to start to worry about what we're going to do, but currently the vast majority of cases are minor and very few people actually run into complications.

It is a potential concern for the future, but it is hugely buzzed up by the press

Yeah, it's amazing how the press seem to jump on the back of big things like this whenever we put our government under pressure. Like the wiping out of third world debt a few years back, the finance issues this year...

[neilneil]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Seriously. Do you know how many people die a year from regular flu? In it's current form, the general population have nothing to worry about. (Other than general worry of flu anyways.)

I hear people using this argument all the time to prove that it's no more dangerous than regular flu.

However normal flu isn't expected to infect 1/3rd of the country.

Thereby even if mortality is the same rate as regular flu infecting 1/3rd of the country it's still a huge deal. Much bigger than regular flu.

-Neil

[Mullicious]

Originally Posted by clc.sheff

I'm sorry but where do you think you are coming from??

Like already said some people here have real decisions to make about real people they care about.

For example I have a 9 week old baby at home and my gran is 94 and still lives on her own.

Do I take him to nursery? Keep him at home? Do I cancell her meals on wheels and deliver all her food during the day? Should I try to expose him to the virus in the hope he'll have strengthened his immune system by winter? Do I go to work or try to stay off?

OR Shall I sit all high and mighty, take an overview of human existance, think that I know it all and if the worst happens have not a shred of regret that I could have done more?

Despite having a Doctor as a parent you clearly know nothing about what you are talking about.

Seriously. I know nothing? I look around these boards, and see people buying into all these scare tactics. I know nothing? You've clearly got it the wrong way round, bud.

Your child and Gran will be fine.

[neilneil]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Seriously. I know nothing? I look around these boards, and see people buying into all these scare tactics. I know nothing? You've clearly got it the wrong way round, bud.

Your child and Gran will be fine.

The US has declared a public health emergency...

Most developed countrys have ordered vaccinations to cover the whole of their population...

China has introduced strict quarantine controls...

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | World response to swine flu crisis

And yet you know more than all these governments enough to say it's no big deal.


-Neil

[Monarch]

These governments are declaring health warnings for the potential of what swine flu could do, it has the potential to kill a lot of people if it spreads a lot, but if it stayed how it was now, less people per case would die of swine flu than of normal flu. There's no denying that it potentially could be the serious case the press are making it out to be, but it's not yet

[neilneil]

I believe these are events that have actually taken place to date.

These countries have committed themselves to purchasing and inoculation of the whole country as soon as a vaccine is available.

-Neil

[Mullicious]

I believe I know more than what the media tells us. Yes. I'm not a sheep that falls in line with this flu scare.

1/3 ESTIMATED or not, it is still not nearly as bad as normal flu. Not in its current state.

[Monarch]

Originally Posted by neilneil

I believe these are events that have actually taken place to date.

These countries have committed themselves to purchasing and inoculation of the whole country as soon as a vaccine is available.

-Neil

The reason they're taking place now is so that they don't get caught up in needed to get it done if swine flu becomes as serious as it could be, even the experts who go on the news etc...hint at the press making too much of it, they clearly say that if you have swine flu you should try to avoid contact with people, at least in public places, but they stress that just because swine flu is around it doesn't mean you should lock yourself away until it goes.

[clc.sheff]

Originally Posted by Mullicious

Seriously. I know nothing? I look around these boards, and see people buying into all these scare tactics. I know nothing? You've clearly got it the wrong way round, bud.

Your child and Gran will be fine.

The point I was trying to make is there is a difference between considering your own safety and considering the safety of others.

I totally agree that the 'masses' are very much likely totally over reacting to this outbreak. I also agree that in all probably it's comparable to many other things that we all deal with on a day to day basis.

This isn't a conspiracy theory for people to 'buy into'. Whether it's an over reaction or not it's a real life situation that people are trying to make sense of.

Seriously your posts to me read like you are expecting the royal family to be revealed as aliens and princess Diana to come back from the grave, congratulations on not being a sheep. The view from your Ivory tower must be fantastic.

To be fair why I thought I would find any of this information on a discussion board 'who knows?'.

I suppose one good thing is that I now have an official printout to say my child and gran will be fine

[cupcakes aka dd]

Originally Posted by neilneil

The US has declared a public health emergency...

Most developed countrys have ordered vaccinations to cover the whole of their population...

China has introduced strict quarantine controls...

BBC NEWS | World | Americas | World response to swine flu crisis

And yet you know more than all these governments enough to say it's no big deal.


-Neil

Have you not read my important info about Government involvement thread. Wise up people

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by cupcakes aka dd

Have you not read my important info about Government involvement thread. Wise up people

We all read it and wondered why your forum name wasn't 'fruitcake'

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by cupcakes aka dd

Have you not read my important info about Government involvement thread. Wise up people

Originally Posted by GasDad

We all read it and wondered why your forum name wasn't 'fruitcake'

If the thread being referred to is the one that points out that one of the people controlling and influencing the Government response is also on the Board of directors of the Company that makes tamiflu, which is central to the Government response, then its a valid point.
The person with feet in both camps may, possibly, be impartial but because of the vested interest he has in the hugely profitable sales of Tamiflu, his presence on the Gov. panel seriously undermines it credibility.
The best science is always done by those with no vested interest in what they are researching, because they are much more likely to be impartial and thus the results less biased.
Currently we can see examples on these forums, amongst others, where 2 year olds with mild symptoms have been given powerful anti-viral agents that basically mess with their immune system. I'm sorry, but that is madness. If the child was seriously ill, OK, but Tamiflu is a state of the art product only fairly recently to market, which certainly hasn't been properly tested on youngsters and could well have side-effects that will only show up in time.
Dishing it out like Smarties at a party is nuts. But it appears on this point I am in a minority of 1, so I apologise for being totally wrong.

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

If the thread being referred to is the one that points out that one of the people controlling and influencing the Government response is also on the Board of directors of the Company that makes tamiflu, which is central to the Government response, then its a valid point.

The point is he is 'one of the people' advising - not the sole advisor.

Tamiflu was developed and manufactured my Roche - not GSK - though Roche have been forced to make it generic.

The person with feet in both camps may, possibly, be impartial but because of the vested interest he has in the hugely profitable sales of Tamiflu, his presence on the Gov. panel seriously undermines it credibility.

Why - who would you have on a government panel ? Surely you'd want to have a representative of all the major pharmaceutical companies.?

The best science is always done by those with no vested interest in what they are researching, because they are much more likely to be impartial and thus the results less biased.

What science are you talking about.

Surely the science relevant to this debate has been done.

[johntheexpat]

Originally Posted by GasDad

Tamiflu was developed and manufactured my Roche - not GSK - though Roche have been forced to make it generic.

You are of course perfectly correct here. (I knew I was wrong!)

So you have a Glaxo member of the Gov Advisory panel.
And the panel are recommending dishing out Tamiflu like smarties.
And there is concern that resistance to Tamiflu may develop.
(Or perhaps at such a phenomenal rate of prescription, side effects will become apparent).
Which undermines consumer confidence.
So they turn to alternatives.
Perhaps Relenza?
Which is made by...............

So I believe that his presence on the board legitimately undermines confidence, due to 'vested interests'

In plain speak, he recommends that the Government dish out Tamiflu so that within 6 months, one way or another it is 'a busted flush' in the minds of the public. The alternative is his own companies product, which isn't generic and will thus be hugely profitable.

I'm just off to check how many shares I have in Glaxo, perhaps early retirement is no longer a distant dream.

[johntheexpat]

ps Do I believe someone would behave like that?

Well, the country was well and truly stuffed by certain members of 'The City' who chased their 7 figure bonuses rather than behaving honourably, so I guess I could believe it!

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

You are of course perfectly correct here. (I knew I was wrong!)

So you have a Glaxo member of the Gov Advisory panel.
And the panel are recommending dishing out Tamiflu like smarties.
And there is concern that resistance to Tamiflu may develop.
(Or perhaps at such a phenomenal rate of prescription, side effects will become apparent).
Which undermines consumer confidence.
So they turn to alternatives.
Perhaps Relenza?
Which is made by...............

So I believe that his presence on the board legitimately undermines confidence, due to 'vested interests'

In plain speak, he recommends that the Government dish out Tamiflu so that within 6 months, one way or another it is 'a busted flush' in the minds of the public. The alternative is his own companies product, which isn't generic and will thus be hugely profitable.

Who would you have on the panel ?

In plain speak, the panel (not one individual) recommends the Government dish out Tamiflu.

Surely apart from government scientists and other experts in the field, you need a least some representation from the pharmaceutical companies.

Please explain how if you were the government you would organize it and who you would go to for advice.

By the way he isn't even on the panel anymore - List of Members

[cupcakes aka dd]

Originally Posted by GasDad

We all read it and wondered why your forum name wasn't 'fruitcake'

I didn't realise you were offically spokes person for the entire Forum. My apologies. Maybe no one has commented on the thread because they are afraid of what it implies. People usually attack with comments like yours when they feel threatened or it challenges their world view.

Latest.

Greece to Vaccinate Entire Population for Swine Flu

http://tvnz.co.nz/health-news/greece-vaccinate-population-swine-flu-2881876

by TVNZ

Aug 1st 2009

Greece will vaccinate its entire population of 12 million against the H1N1 swine flu pandemic which has swept around the world in weeks, killing hundreds of people, the country's health minister said on Friday.

The Mediterranean country, which receives about 15 million tourists every year, has confirmed more than 700 swine flu cases and no deaths, but world health experts say the true number of cases globally is far higher as only a few patients get tested.

"We decided that the entire population, all citizens and residents, without any exception, will be vaccinated against the flu," Health Minister Dimitris Avramopoulos said after a ministerial meeting.

Greece has already earmarked 40 million euros for vaccines and has placed orders with Novartis, Glaxo and Sanofi for 8 million vaccine doses, to be received gradually by January.

Vaccine experts say people will likely need two doses of vaccine to be protected from H1N1 swine flu, so Greece would need a total of 24 million doses to vaccinate its entire population. Other countries are taking similar steps.

"Greece will order 16 million more doses from the same companies in the future," a health ministry official who declined to be named told Reuters.

"We are only waiting for the European Union's approval to start vaccinating everyone."
The European Medicines Agency has begun reviewing pandemic flu vaccines under development, aiming to get them approved before the flu season starts, sometime in September.

The health ministry official said children, the elderly and ailing would be the first to be vaccinated.

NOTE "without any exception". Now this is dangerous!

[cupcakes aka dd]

Originally Posted by johntheexpat

If the thread being referred to is the one that points out that one of the people controlling and influencing the Government response is also on the Board of directors of the Company that makes tamiflu, which is central to the Government response, then its a valid point.
.

Thankyou, at least one person can join two dots together.

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by cupcakes aka dd

I didn't realise you were offically spokes person for the entire Forum. My apologies. Maybe no one has commented on the thread because they are afraid of what it implies. People usually attack with comments like yours when they feel threatened or it challenges their world view.

Or some of us think cutting and pasting from websites is a waste of time - especially when some of the claims made are either out of date, irrelevant, or simply plain wrong. Or in your original posts case, all three.

This however is a reasonable point.

Greece will vaccinate its entire population of 12 million against the H1N1 ...

...

NOTE "without any exception". Now this is dangerous!

Fortunately in the UK no one will be made to have the vaccination.

[GasDad]

Originally Posted by cupcakes aka dd

Thankyou, at least one person can join two dots together.

Except he doesn't work for the company that makes Tamiflu.

Can't you check even basic facts before posting entire articles.