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Originally Posted by kavanf1 I don't fully understand how British politics works, but presuming that the share of the votes this time around is relatively evenly distributed, is there a possibility of a coalition government formed of more than one party, such as what we have in Ireland? I'm picturing a stand-off between Tories and Labour, with Lib Dems needing to side with one of them to tip the balance of power, and thereby forming a shared government.
Could such a situation ever arise in the UK? |
It's quite possible to have a result where the Lib Dems could end up forming a government with LD + Lab seats adding up to a majority. It's also possible that they could be in this position with the Conservatives.
However, it's highly unlikely that they copuld end up in a position where they could choose to put either in power.
For wexample, at the last election the total number of seats was 646, so you needed 324 to form a majority. LAB got 356, CON 198, LD 62, others 30.
For Labour to lose its majority it'd need to lose 32 seats. If they all went LD (or all CON) that'd put LD + CON on 292 - still 32 short of a majority. If 32 went from LAB to LD and 32 went LAB to CON you'd have - LAB 292, CON 230, LD 94, others 30.
But if 95 or more defect from LAB to CON we get LAB 261, CON 293, LD 62, others 30. Now LD can prop up CON but not LAB.
So a swing of more than 64 from LAB (50:50 LD:CON) is needed to put LD in with a chance of supporting LAB, but more than 94 and they can no longer do so, but only support CON.
They may be able to support one, or the other, but they're very unlikely to have the choice of either/or, unless they get a big swing to them with little to the tories.
Steve W