Does HD/BD format have a chance of survival?

[Happy Trucker]

Hi.

Firstly, I couldn't find a more appropriate section for this - if it's in the wrong one, then feel free to move it.

Christmas is almost on us. This is the first year that HD & BD formats have been widely available with the hardware to play them. Where are they in the shops? ASDA have about a dozen or so - and up until recently you were hard pressed to find anything other than the '300' available there. Not long ago I was in HMV on Oxford St, London and again '300' was there but I couldn't find a HiDef section anywhere. I'm not saying there wasn't one, just that I couldn't find it. Surely the stores/studios should be marketing the hell out of HiDef formats at this time of year? You shouldn't be able to walk into a major retailer without having HiDef shoved down your throat.

Remember when DVDs first hit the streets? The marketing went into overdrive. If you don't push these products they'll fade into the background and will be declared a niche market. We're already suffering from (in my view) gross overpricing - Heroes Season 1 is 50% more expensive on HD than SD, on average HiDef movies are at least 50-60% dearer than their SD counterparts. Add lack of marketing to this and we could be looking at a format that turns into the minidisc of the 21st century. Christams should be a perfect time to push this new technology on the rest of the public, but unless you know where to go online your chances of getting a HiDef DVD for Christmas is about the same as finding a pile of rocking horse poo on your front step.

So come on studios/retailers - market this format and help it if not blast off, then at least enable it to more than limp along into memory.

[Adam_uk]

Hi

I agree to some extent- most film retailers such as HMV, Zavvi have HD sections of several rows and online retilers have them. Clearly they will supply space as demand grows.

Was DVD in Supermarkets when it first launched? From what I remember, no it took a few years to go in full throng, not really until player prices dropped- which seems to have started to happen faster with HD formats.

No be fair I'm not sure there is a huge amount on demand from the average consumer. For them DVD is good enough right now.

Not sure of the stats, but I think only 30%ish of people have a HD display, two formats gives large amount of consumer confusion.

I listened into a guy in HMV try to explain why TF was not on BD last week- the poor woman looked lost!

So do they have a chance of survival-YES. Do I think either will get to the current level of DVD- I doubt it- and if they do not for a good few years.

[abraxus]

Until such time as there is only one format or there are dual format players at reasonable price (ie under £150) then it's not likely to take off.

Even if the discs were the same price as SD DVD's there's a limit to the number of people prepared to pay the price for the players.

[Speedoguy]

Originally Posted by Adam_uk

Hi

Not sure of the stats, but I think only 30%ish of people have a HD display, two formats gives large amount of consumer confusion.
.

I'm sure that percentage will rise as it seems the only option for people buying a replacemnet or looking to upgrade their exisiting set is to an HD screen model of some kind.No other choice as far as I can see.(Unless you go down the 2nd hand road)

[Pecker]

I've asked extensive questions at AVS of the insiders.

Adding together a lot of information from various threads, I'm becoming increasingly convinced that HD DVD can release titles and press 1 or 2 thousand copies and break even, as long as the film has a simultaneous SD DVD release.

Much of the cost of putting a film on HD DVD is re-mastering, etc. Most re-issues these days come from a high def master anyway. The extras, mastering, packing, etc, all need to be done for an SD re-issue.

So the only extra cost of releasing on HD DVD as well is the glass master and the extra cost of pressing a HD DVD over an SD DVD.

Many films re-issued like this (Adventures of Robin Hood, Casablanca, Mutiny on the Bounty) are double discs on SD DVD, and a HD DVD costs less than twice as much as an SD DVD to produce. This leaves the glass master.

If a HD DVD glass master costs $10,000 and you sell 2,000 copies, that's only $5 a disc. I think HDM buyers will pay $5 a disc over SD. Indeed, thet already do, especially when you consider that SD DVDs appear to be discounted more quickly.

Look at this page:

http://www.pacificdisc.com/PricingHD-DVD.html

10,000 HD DVDs at $1.71 each? That appears to include everything from providing them with a high def master to ther finished product. I stand to be corrected on this, but that's how I read it.

That's a total of less than $20,000 for 10,000 discs.

At Amazon US Casablanca is $20. Let's say that after paying everyone else (Amazon, distribution, etc), a studio ends up with just $10 of that $20. Believe me they'll get at least that. Amazon will probably pay c.70% of what they sell an item for.

If they sell 2,000 copies they get their money back (2,000 x $10 = $20,000). Sell the remaining 8,000 after the first year for half price ($10 each at Amazon - Warner get $5), and you make $40,000 profit (8,000 x $5 = $40,000).

Remember, these figures can be worldwide. Many UK HD DVDs have FBI warnings at the start, as only one disc is pressed for the world market.

The extras, artwork, etc, are all almost identical to the SD version, for which they also made the high def master.

Remember Paramount's Jack Ryan Collection cock up? That's because they used the SD artwork, and just changed the DVD logo to HD DVD (took 2 minutes on the computer). To have done a proper job on the artwork would have cost them...well, one person spending an afternoon on it, at most.

And remember, this is a very inefficient way of producing discs. When Warner made a HD DVD of Casablanca, I bet they didn't outsource everything to an external company like the one in the link - doing the work in-house will make the discs even cheaper.

What this means is, I think HD DVD can survive now, at current levels of support.

My sums might be a bit out. But I bet that people guessing that a title needs to sell 20,000 copies to break even are a lot further away from the truth than I am.

If anyone else has any other figures, I'd be interested to hear them, as I've been looking into this myself for a while.

Steve W

[kevin_irl]

More and more people are buying HD tv's so they will be looking to make use of it. Once the players come down to mass market prices and more people have hd tv's then it will start to take off.

[Sonic67]

Enthusiasts will always buy into the format as it's the best available. Laserdisk was never 'mass-market' but lasted about twenty years. Laserdisk never appeared on games consoles either. Then you can throw in the Internet. Laserdisk survived without it. With it it's a huge advantage. Most HD sales are on the Internet. If it comes to it a fair proportion of DVD and CD sales are on the Internet also. I can't be bothered whether the disks are in the shops or not. I get CDs, DVDs HD disks and even cookers and TVs off the Internet now.