Glut of PS3 in channel in USA, is this why no Blu-ray movie sales blip?

[StooMonster]

According to an article by gamesindustry.biz there is a glut of unsold PS3 in channel. Tracking firm NotifyWire believe this is down to high price of PS3 and retailers forcing bundles on customers.

Ian Drake, president of NotifyWire, believes that interest is waning for the console, and illustrates examples with comparison against sales of Xbox 360 last year.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21856

StooMonster

[BadAss]

If thats true then we'll see the PS3 here in the UK sooner rather than later.

[andythescientis]

Does not supprise me one bit, i've thought for months sony were having a laugh with the price their charging for a games console. The console market has changed and matured, more 25-35s buy them than ever before. However this market is far cleverer now, and more likely to wait till after the initial mad rush (which kids can't do). While there is little software and high price the savy 25-35s won't be throwing cash at PS3s. I don't think sony get the fact that we're not the same in the US and Europe as the mad must have japanese consumer. As i've said before, sony could stick lights on a dog poo and sell it in japan, that's how their market works, we need far more than flashy lights and cool must have spin.

[StooMonster]

Possibly, but they are in channel i.e. with retailers so they cannot be pulled back. But does mean that Sony may stop feeding retailers and concentrate on new markets, such as Europe.

There are plenty of rumours that PS3 European launch is going to be 3/3/07 however Sony are denying this. "pure speculation" they say.

http://www.gamesindustry.biz/content_page.php?aid=21827

If there is a glut of PS3 in channel in USA, it appears to me that 'bundling' may be route cause.

StooMonster

[paulfoley]

I think what they actually need is a low priced, basic model with 5.1 analogues plus component and HDMI. They could call it the BR-A1 ?

[LOXjet]

Originally Posted by StooMonster

Tracking firm NotifyWire believe this is down to high price of PS3 and retailers forcing bundles on customers.

I really think Sony could be in trouble with the PS3...

Even though it's selling them at such a high price, they are loosing hundreds of $'s on each unit. Of course they make that back on sales of games, but consider the following...

The negative press (for Sony, the PS3 & Blu-ray). The high cost. The low output of consoles. The talk of a 'glut' of consoles left already (only a month into it's life). The large amount for sale on ebay (assuming they are selling, machines are sitting around not selling games and costing Sony money). The low attachment rate (launch titles are pretty weak and few and far between). The fact that Sony has frustrated many manufacturers, developers & publishers with delays, Blu-ray and launch problems. The European situation (say no more!). The loss of PS exclusives (so lower games sales as they are shared across multiple platforms). The Blu-ray factor (if people buy it to watch films and not play games, Sony will never make that lost money back).

Add all these up and I believe Sony have got themselves into a bit of trouble here. They are also into a catch 22... to lower the price of the console they have to sell games but they won't sell them (at a fast rate) becuase the console is too expensive to buy in the first place (for a lot of people). The 'average' consumer will wait until the price drops to buy one (and therefore buy games)... and there's your catch 22. Of course Sony could artificially drop the price early, but then they are going to loose even more money even faster.

Looking way forward... you've also got the situation where, just as the PS3 might really come down in price and take off (3-4 years) there will already be talk of the next XBOX etc (the XBOX vs PS cycle has been broken by the year gap between them).

The PS3 certainly won't flop but it won't dominate either... and Sony need it to dominate (as the PS2 did) to make it commercially viable long term.

[Dave2]

Originally Posted by Vasquez

I really think Sony could be in trouble with the PS3...

Even though it's selling them at such a high price, they are loosing hundreds of $'s on each unit. Of course they make that back on sales of games, but consider the following...

The negative press (for Sony, the PS3 & Blu-ray). The high cost. The low output of consoles. The talk of a 'glut' of consoles left already (only a month into it's life). The large amount for sale on ebay (assuming they are selling, machines are sitting around not selling games and costing Sony money). The low attachment rate (launch titles are pretty weak and few and far between). The fact that Sony has frustrated many manufacturers, developers & publishers with delays, Blu-ray and launch problems. The European situation (say no more!). The loss of PS exclusives (so lower games sales as they are shared across multiple platforms). The Blu-ray factor (if people buy it to watch films and not play games, Sony will never make that lost money back).

Add all these up and I believe Sony have got themselves into a bit of trouble here. They are also into a catch 22... to lower the price of the console they have to sell games but they won't sell them (at a fast rate) becuase the console is too expensive to buy in the first place (for a lot of people). The 'average' consumer will wait until the price drops to buy one (and therefore buy games)... and there's your catch 22. Of course Sony could artificially drop the price early, but then they are going to loose even more money even faster.

Looking way forward... you've also got the situation where, just as the PS3 might really come down in price and take off (3-4 years) there will already be talk of the next XBOX etc (the XBOX vs PS cycle has been broken by the year gap between them).

The PS3 certainly won't flop but it won't dominate either... and Sony need it to dominate (as the PS2 did) to make it commercially viable long term.

This is why a console will not win a war and it was the demise of the ps3 having bluray built in.

I dont think sony will crash and burn with the ps3 but there market share will have dropped . I dont think they will reduce the price of the console due to the fact they loose too much on it already plus it is only £250 in japan to buy which is a whole lot cheaper than the release price here.

Microsoft xbox360 managed its console rather well in the aspect in not waiting for the hd-dvd drive and thus having a cheaper price and more of an option for the individual user to select if they would like a HD format of movies.

With this in mind fox and disney may have second thought as to support both formats but it will not happen anytime soon maybe after a year 2008 ish.

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by Vasquez

I really think Sony could be in trouble with the PS3...

Even though it's selling them at such a high price, they are loosing hundreds of $'s on each unit. Of course they make that back on sales of games, but consider the following...

The negative press (for Sony, the PS3 & Blu-ray). The high cost. The low output of consoles. The talk of a 'glut' of consoles left already (only a month into it's life). The large amount for sale on ebay (assuming they are selling, machines are sitting around not selling games and costing Sony money). The low attachment rate (launch titles are pretty weak and few and far between). The fact that Sony has frustrated many manufacturers, developers & publishers with delays, Blu-ray and launch problems. The European situation (say no more!). The loss of PS exclusives (so lower games sales as they are shared across multiple platforms). The Blu-ray factor (if people buy it to watch films and not play games, Sony will never make that lost money back).

Add all these up and I believe Sony have got themselves into a bit of trouble here. They are also into a catch 22... to lower the price of the console they have to sell games but they won't sell them (at a fast rate) becuase the console is too expensive to buy in the first place (for a lot of people). The 'average' consumer will wait until the price drops to buy one (and therefore buy games)... and there's your catch 22. Of course Sony could artificially drop the price early, but then they are going to loose even more money even faster.

Looking way forward... you've also got the situation where, just as the PS3 might really come down in price and take off (3-4 years) there will already be talk of the next XBOX etc (the XBOX vs PS cycle has been broken by the year gap between them).

The PS3 certainly won't flop but it won't dominate either... and Sony need it to dominate (as the PS2 did) to make it commercially viable long term.

When this launches in Europe at an expected 595 Euros, they will probably be breaking even on the consoles. The record highs of the UK£ and Euro against the yen / dollar at the moment means converting into $ means at least they will breakeven. Analysts wreckon it costs Sony $763 to make each one - this to me, is the main reason why a European launch will not delay further. At current exchange rates, this market is now too lucrative.

Whether the PS3 dominates remains to be seen, but people forget that the PS2 is outselling the PS3 & 360 combined twice over, each week. People quote GOW as selling a million copies in its first month, but so did Final Fantasy for a last generation console! I do think that the PS3 may struggle to sell like the PS2 has, but the PS2 is still selling at rates near its peak popularity, and this provides Sony with a good backbone support for the PS3.

Finally, since Sony is the third largest movie studio / media company in the world, I think that people buying blu ray films will be just as acceptable to Sony as games.

[Rasczak]

Originally Posted by StooMonster

According to an article by gamesindustry.biz there is a glut of unsold PS3 in channel. Tracking firm NotifyWire believe this is down to high price of PS3 and retailers forcing bundles on customers.

It does seem that interest in the PS3 is alot less than expected...you only need to look at Ebay prices, in comparison to the Xbox 360 last year, to see the interest just isn't there. I wonder why? Is the price just too high? Is there no interest in BluRay?

Looking on the positive side though, as a few others have mentioned, if the PS3 isn't selling in the US then hopefully the UK launch will occur in March The question is will people be interest here? Especially if it retails for £400+?

Maybe Microsoft was spot on when they decided not to go with a next gen drive - has BluRay killed the PlayStation brand?

[StooMonster]

Merrill Lynch recon $800 and that excludes cost of manufacture, packaging, distribution, etc. that's simply components; they do estimate down to $320 after three years. But I think it's highly unlikely Sony will be breaking even on each console in three months time for European launch.

Source: http://www.engadget.com/2006/02/18/p...ill-lynch-mob/

StooMonster

[Toasty]

Originally Posted by ani4ani

Whether the PS3 dominates remains to be seen, but people forget that the PS2 is outselling the PS3 & 360 combined twice over, each week. People quote GOW as selling a million copies in its first month, but so did Final Fantasy for a last generation console! I do think that the PS3 may struggle to sell like the PS2 has, but the PS2 is still selling at rates near its peak popularity, and this provides Sony with a good backbone support for the PS3.

Interesting point and one that could be a potential monkey on the PS3 back. Xbox 360 is here and the original xbox is all but disappeared from shops and consumers minds, same with Wii and Gamecube. Can sony do the same with PS2? If they don't, where do games developers focus their effort? PS2 or PS3? Will the thousands buying PS2's this christmas want to buy a PS3 next year?

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by Toasty

Interesting point and one that could be a potential monkey on the PS3 back. Xbox 360 is here and the original xbox is all but disappeared from shops and consumers minds, same with Wii and Gamecube. Can sony do the same with PS2? If they don't, where do games developers focus their effort? PS2 or PS3? Will the thousands buying PS2's this christmas want to buy a PS3 next year?

I think its all falls into the Playstation brand, which means the pressure for the PS3 to absolute succeed immediatly is less, but no less desirable.

To answer the question about ebay sells - the main reason they're not higher is simple - eBay keep cancelling the auctions! I have bid on dozens of them to disappear towards the end. The second reason [from my point of view], is that neither the US or Japanese console is really that attractive. Although I can afford to "waste" my money, with the console cost being high in any event, some people are deciding to do this once, and feel that a wait until March is probably the best thing to do. I was waiting, but couldn't resist Christmas without one. I ended up getting one off-line [cancelled by eBay - he has three more by the way] The 360 didn't attract any different price - I got mine for £480 each on eBay [launch day] and these were for real McCoy UK models which have to have more value.

[Dave2]

What alot of people have to understand is that the ps2 was and still is one of the best consoles of its time and is still outselling both ps3 and xbox 360 , the only console that is outselling the ps2 is the nintendo DS.

With people buying the ps2 they are probably thinking that why do we need the ps3 ? and why do we need to pay £500 more so when they can have a ps2 and a xbox 360 for the price you would pay for a ps3 ?.

I still say the format war will not be decided on a console and will always be the case.

[Toasty]

Originally Posted by ani4ani

I think its all falls into the Playstation brand, which means the pressure for the PS3 to absolute succeed immediatly is less, but no less desirable.

I agree, but the future for sony and bluray is PS3 not PS2. I believe it would be a step backwards if in a years time PS3 is being out sold by PS2. Note: I doubt this will be the case.

[ani4ani]

Originally Posted by Dave2

What alot of people have to understand is that the ps2 was and still is one of the best consoles of its time and is still outselling both ps3 and xbox 360 , the only console that is outselling the ps2 is the nintendo DS.

With people buying the ps2 they are probably thinking that why do we need the ps3 ? and why do we need to pay £500 more so when they can have a ps2 and a xbox 360 for the price you would pay for a ps3 ?.

I still say the format war will not be decided on a console and will always be the case.

I lay odds that the PS3 will launch at £325 - £350 and £399 - £425 [20 GB and 60 GB] respectively. In fact, I have booked marked this thread to come back when it happens.

Although I agree that the "wars" won't be decided by the consoles - the winning format will also have the winning console.