HD DVD and Blu-ray sales on Amazon.com -- the rankings

[StooMonster]

Apologies to David Scott of AVS for nicking his hardwork, albeit linked from thedvdwars.com ...

Here's a top 10 of HD DVD's sold at Amazon today 9-11-06. I also threw in the top Blu-Ray ranked movie to compare Blu-Ray's sales to HD DVD:

1. Terminator 3 - Rise of the Machines [HD DVD] Sales rank: 157
2. Backdraft (HD DVD) Sales rank: 974
3. Red Dragon (HD DVD) Sales rank: 1062
4. Space Cowboys [HD DVD] Sales rank: 1686
5. Ray Sales [HD DVD] rank: 1879
6. Serenity [HD DVD] Sales rank: 1889
7. Lethal Weapon 2 [HD DVD] Sales rank: 1928
8. The Searchers Sales rank: 2032
9. The Adventures of Robin Hood (1938) [HD DVD] Sales rank: 2204
10. Apollo 13 [HD DVD] Sales rank: 2205
27. Tim Burton's Corpse Bride [Blu-ray] Sales rank: 5415


This is all based on Amazon's sales and are taken from DVD Wars. I wonder how long the Blu-Ray exclusive studios can hold out based upon the software sales? The top 26 HD DVD's outrank even the best selling Blu-Ray title. I'm sure this will change somewhat when the PS3 comes out, but I have a feeling it's not going to change as much as studios think.

Source: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8407113

So, the number one selling HD DVD title is ranked 157 and the number one selling Blu-ray title is ranked 5415, with 26 HD DVD titles out ranking it.

It's going to be interesting watching this develop. http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

StooMonster

[av-phile]

Excellent post from someone with the resourcefulness to extract those rankings. But this is not at all surprising for me. Nearly six months after the Tosh launch, the market lead of HD-DVD should be clear.

Not a few will still say it's still to early to tell. How long does it need to make a decision? Long enough for the other camp to even things out? As I am sure they will, once the two formats are on equal footing, what is there to decide? Both will now be so good, they'll co-exist until the next format comes along.

[Nic Rhodes]

It is worth noting that these places change significantly wrt to what is new, and about to be released, todays releases are high on the rankings now. In a few weeks time they will have fallen back again to be replaced by othes. There is lots of movement in these lists as I have tracked then over the last few months. What I think would be most interesting is cumulative sales for players and number of discs per format. This would show both the number of players in the field and their disc usuage (is it a HD DVD player with 30 discs, or a PS3 with 1 disc senario...) but that data is kept too close to thier hearts, pity we can get it out of Amazon

The data is good however and the guy should be applauded for doing this.

[av-phile]

Exactly, one day up the next day down, then up, then down.

When it is clear that both formats can deliver HD performance on practical HT terms, the market should make a decisive move at the first opportunity it can. At no time will this ever happen again, except now. When the launch products clearly demonstrate who is satisfying the market and who is screwing it.

[StooMonster]

thedvdwars.com site is good for trends though, check the "Average Sales Rank of Top 10 DVDs" chart that plots the average sales rank of top ten HD DVD versus top ten BluRay.

This is good because it removes the distortions -- one day up, next day down -- of individual titles and simply uses the abstract "top ten".

That chart tells an interesting story.

StooMonster

[av-phile]

http://www.thedvdwars.com/index.cfm

Is this the one you're referring. Looks well researched and objective to me.

[ykhan16]

I'm not sure if i'm drawing the right conclusions from this but looking at the average sales rank of top10 dvd's- it shows that for the past 5 months HD DVD has been ahead of Blu Ray, however I was kind of expecting to see an general upward trend but its remained pretty much level since May.

When the PS3 is released thats a huge number of Blu Ray players in homes and if small fraction purchase movie discs regularly it would completely blitz HD DVD in the sales rank because relatively speaking the HD DVD sales rank is not especially high to start with.

Am i reading into this right?

[Rasczak]

When the PS3 is released thats a huge number of Blu Ray players in homes and if small fraction purchase movie discs regularly it would completely blitz HD DVD in the sales rank because relatively speaking the HD DVD sales rank is not especially high to start with.

The PS3 will be competing with the Xbox 360 HD DVD package so I think it quite unlikely that the Sony console will 'blitz' HD DVD. Infact given the relative quantities likely to be shipping it may well be the other way round.

[mickey101]

Originally Posted by Rasczak

The PS3 will be competing with the Xbox 360 HD DVD package so I think it quite unlikely that the Sony console will 'blitz' HD DVD. Infact given the relative quantities likely to be shipping it may well be the other way round.

If we make a conservative estimate that 1 in 10 PS3 owners will buy into BD. That'll be 120,000 extra customers for blu ray in the US by years end (if you believe Sony's 1.2 million shipped promise). This is more than double the entire sales of HD-DVD in Japan and the US (about 50,000).

But, how many titles are these PS3 owners likely to pick up? 1 or 2? That’s not really enough to create any kind of dominance for BD. Coupled with the Euro release of the Tosh models and the Xbox360 addon I think that that HD-DVDs dominance may be diminished but won’t be “blitzed” by any means.

[ykhan16]

I think people are overestimating the significance of the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive- console addon's are notorious for selling badly. I mean who's going to buy it? Its aimed at those who want to watch HD DVD's right which, OMG is people like you or me!

We're all looking at this new drive as suddenly opening up a new consumer base but in reality its still only going to be bought by the same consumer group who are planning to get HD DVD- but this could well be a slightly cheaper option for them.

I think most people on here would by a dedicated player if it came down to a choice between that and the xbox 360 addon- and thats despite it being cheaper!

[SAH]

Originally Posted by mickey101

If we make a conservative estimate that 1 in 10 PS3 owners will buy into BD. That'll be 120,000 extra customers for blu ray in the US by years end (if you believe Sony's 1.2 million shipped promise). This is more than double the entire sales of HD-DVD in Japan and the US (about 50,000).

But, how many titles are these PS3 owners likely to pick up? 1 or 2? That’s not really enough to create any kind of dominance for BD. Coupled with the Euro release of the Tosh models and the Xbox360 addon I think that that HD-DVDs dominance may be diminished but won’t be “blitzed” by any means.

But post Christmas, when more BR players are released at reasonable prices, with huge BR/PS3 marketing campaigns, and a broader range of titles, it's not going to look too bright for HD-DVD. Once you have a handfull of BR titles for your PS3, are you really going to switch to HD-DVD when you come to buying a dedicated HD player?

As for the 360 HD-DVD add-on, it'll be far easier to persuade PS3 owners to splash out £15 for a BR disc, which in turn will be demonstrated to friends and family, than fully commiting to HD-DVD with a £150+ add-on player.

[Avi]

Originally Posted by mickey101

If we make a conservative estimate that 1 in 10 PS3 owners will buy into BD. That'll be 120,000 extra customers for blu ray in the US by years end (if you believe Sony's 1.2 million shipped promise). This is more than double the entire sales of HD-DVD in Japan and the US (about 50,000).

But, how many titles are these PS3 owners likely to pick up? 1 or 2? That’s not really enough to create any kind of dominance for BD. Coupled with the Euro release of the Tosh models and the Xbox360 addon I think that that HD-DVDs dominance may be diminished but won’t be “blitzed” by any means.

It will also be interesting to understand HD DVD purchasing habits. I've got 33 titles so far and I know others have over 50. Add in to the mix that that many worldwide HD DVD owner will purchase euro titles that are BD only.

AVI

[SAH]

Originally Posted by Avi

It will also be interesting to understand HD DVD purchasing habits. I've got 33 titles so far and I know others have over 50. Add in to the mix that that many worldwide HD DVD owner will purchase euro titles that are BD only.

AVI

The format 'winner' will be decided by the average Joe buying titles in Asda and Tesco, not early adopters who care little about missing out on titles from the likes of Disney.

[Avi]

Originally Posted by SAH

The format 'winner' will be decided by the average Joe buying titles in Asda and Tesco, not early adopters who care little about missing out on titles from the likes of Disney.

I agree and it will be a very, very long time before "average Joe" spends the the type of money on a high end games console or dedicated player for either HD format. What is Disney's share of the DVD market BTW?

AVI

[Dave2]

I think sony are counting on a massive dominance with PS3. Maybe poeple will buy the lesser version and only use it for games. Economy may be strong but i dont thing the average jow will spend almost £600 on a games console when you can get a decent pc for that price.

Also how can people watch BD film on a console that will be used most of the time playing games.