HD DVD: Blu-ray Has Problems

[HighDeff]

HD DVD: Blu-ray Has Problems

By Aaron Dobbins, BetaNews
January 7, 2006, 5:34 PM

Having finished speaking to Blu-ray, BetaNews sat down with a representative from HD DVD to discuss how the Microsoft-backed format will compete with Blu-ray. Toshiba HD DVD expert Mark Knox gave a thorough explanation of the optical disc drive technology, and said that because of Blu-ray's complicated design, HD DVD will triumph in the format war.

Blu-ray's difficulties, Knox explained, begin with the technology itself, and the idea that its 50GB dual-layer capacity is superior to HD DVD's 30GB. Through the use of better codec technology, such space is not actually needed for high-definition movies. In fact, Blu-ray admitted to BetaNews that most discs won't go beyond the 25GB mark.


Although both formats are being demoed at the show, there has been much speculation about production problems in the Blu-ray camp. Knox confirmed the rumors, and said the problem involves Blu-ray's numerical aperture. In order to store more data on a disc, the laser is bent into a cone shape.

The aperture setting on standard DVD is 0.6, with the setting for HD DVD a slightly smaller 0.65. The additional capacity is provided by the blue laser technology. However, in order to store a full 25GB per layer, Blu-ray has adopted a 0.85 aperture, meaning the divots on the optical layer are smaller and more prone to error.

Additionally, the smaller aperture requires a thinner disc and smaller layer spacing, which makes the medium more vulnerable. Initially, Blu-ray was designed with an external cartridge to protect the disc. But now, the group is utilizing a special protective coating that has not yet been finalized due to disagreements.

Given HD DVD's design, the requirements are similar to standard DVDs, which has eliminated manufacturing problems. Knox said that Blu-ray could see a much higher production flaw rate, as the equipment has minimal room for error during both the medium and content manufacturing, as well as the reading of discs by Blu-ray players.

Additionally, Knox refuted claims that Blu-ray's use of Java for its menu system and interactive features will make development easier. He explained that Blu-ray is actually using an imported specification from Europe named JEM. Due to JEM's large number of instructions, it will be nearly impossible for hardware manufacturers to ensure devices will function under any circumstance.

Knox said that HD DVD can verify that every disc will play on every player, as its iHD specification is DHTML-based rather than built with Java. This also means reduced production time for studios and firms developing the HD content. Hewlett-Packard recently asked Blu-ray to adopt iHD, but the group balked at the demand.

Regarding the notion of limited content in the HD DVD format, BetaNews was told that while HD DVD does not have the number of studios its rival touts, the Blu-ray Disc Association simply wanted "as many logos as possible on their PowerPoint slide."

Knox highlighted the fact that of the American Film Institute's Top 100 movies, more than 60 were from studios supporting the HD DVD format, and a majority of the major-grossing films of the last three years were from those same studios. HD DVD has focused on quality, not quantity, Knox said.

HD DVD recently signed foreign and independent studios, including European filmmaker Studio Canal. By the end of 2006 HD DVD will have roughly 200 titles available, more than Blu-ray has announced thus far.

Another problem plaguing Blu-ray development is a requirement placed on the organization when it signed a deal with Fox Studios. Fox had demanded that high-definition DVDs utilize a stricter copy-protection format than AACS, which is employed by both Blu-ray and HD DVD. While HD DVD rejected the demand, Blu-ray conceded.

Knox said Fox was unhappy with the decision to let consumers watch movies where they please using Mandatory Managed Copy. Managed Copy has become a contentious point in the next-generation DVD battle, with HP demanding that Blu-ray require the technology on all discs. However, as Fox's proprietary DRM will run after AACS, the studio could theoretically restrict such portability.

This proprietary format is also rumored to have delayed the PlayStation 3, which will include a Blu-ray drive for the masses. Pioneer is set to launch a $1,800 Blu-ray player in May.

HD DVD, meanwhile, is launching its first players in March. Toshiba will bring two models to market with price points of $499 and $799 USD. The high-end model will feature improved output connections for home theater aficionados who have componentized systems.

For the average consumer, with surround sound systems "from a box," the $499 HD DVD player will be sufficient, Knox said. Consumers will see the $499 models in stores such as Best Buy, while the $799 player will be available through specialty retailers where home theater buffs can additionally purchase high-end audio systems.

Copied from here.:

http://www.betanews.com/article/HD_DVD_Bluray_Has_Problems/1136673259

[PJTX100]

Well he's hardly gonna say "yep, decent format, a real contender, and we're worried." :)

[mjcairney]

That's like Mr Ford saying the Mondeo is better than the Vectra because .....................

Cheers,

Martin.

[pagelad]

As long as they dont mess the PS3 up and get a move on with it i still think Sony have got it in the bag.

Apart from people with more money then sense nobody is going to pay $800+ for a HD or Blu ray drive, at least not on the scale they need.

With the PS3 there going to have millions of them everywhere as soon as its launched, even if they dont get that much cash from each unit in the long run they will still be laughing

[Timbo21]

If Blu-ray are bringing in machines at $1800 then I think they are way off the mark. The pricing for HD-DVD seems really sensible. I think with the current situation, & the possible danger that HD streaming from PC's etc. could be the real winner, Blu-ray are somewhay foolish to launch at such a high price. Yes, traditionally new technology is mega-pricey when first introduced, but to win the war they can't mess about.

[10ht]

Sounds like it may be time to think about selling the 3910 and I've only had it a year. At the risk of appearing totally stupid, part of the article relates to aperture size, since when has 0.85 been smaller than 0.65 or 0.6?:confused:

[gingerone]

I used to think Blu ray had it in the bag. Now I'm not so sure. To be honest HD versions of the matrix and LOTR would be enough to sway me to HD-DVD.
Also the above article is not the only place that mentions blu rays problems,they are well known.
It looks like HD-DVD is ready to run but Blu-ray is not even close yet.
Time will tell though, and if blu ray fails it would be very damaging for sony.

[Timbo21]

Sounds like it may be time to think about selling the 3910 and I've only had it a year.

I think it's going to be a fair bit of time before we can rent a wide range of HD titles. The idea of having to buy every HD film I want to view is not very appealing to me.

[PioRow]

We have a forum filled to the brim with people who are more than happy to part with £100's even £1000's on AV equipment and even we are a bit hesitant about getting a new dvd player that may be defunct in a few years time. I cant see the general public being super enthusiastic to buy a new dvd player and replace their dvd collection.

Lets face no one format is going to have every film you want, if buy blu ray and film you love will appear on HDDVD and vice versa. So its not really sensible to edge your bets and go with one format. I think the real winner will people like samsung who are offering a dvd player that plays both formats, that would be the player I would buy.

The comments about the PS3 are very apt. The PS3 is the vehicle Sony are going to use to sell blu-ray. If they can get a blu-ray dvd player in 15-20 million homes via the PS3 then that automatically gives them a headstart. It wont matter about production issues with blue-ray or the java interfaces. We may have the same situation as with betamax and VHS where the superior format fails and the inferior format prevails.

[DanDT]

Lets face no one format is going to have every film you want, if buy blu ray and film you love will appear on HDDVD and vice versa. So its not really sensible to edge your bets and go with one format. I think the real winner will people like samsung who are offering a dvd player that plays both formats, that would be the player I would buy.


Well actually things are a bit different than that... Bluray is going to have pretty much 100% of the movies studios, therefore potentially every movie you can think of. HDDVD only has about 50% of the movie studios behind it (Sony/MGM and other exclusives to Bluray being about 50% of the total), therefore it will only ever have about half the potential amount of movies Bluray will have.

[Drew2]

Also learn from the past.:lesson:

What won the VHS - Betamax war and which one is actually better!:confused:

If the industry backs one particular format it doesn't nesecarily mean it's the best one - usually the cheapest ie. HDDVD:thumbsdow

Blu-ray PS3 with 16bit HDMI will (WILL) change everything for the better!:clap:

Honest!;)

I don't subscribe to either but prefer to have the best format rather than the cheapest - VHS totally sucks even when they went SVHS it never even came close to Betamax - just remember that!!:lesson:

[gandley]

At this point no ones winning. The PS3 will do movie playback but will have some of the more cool features limited. Those features will be on sony's own blu-ray player as well as pioneers etc.

Samsung have announced there intention to bring a blu-ray/HD-DVD combi player out, so then you do get all the movies this way.

Price will be a big issue for the public, not which one is better. History tells us that.

when blu-Ray has say LOTR playing right next to HD-DVD playing the same movie and they both look near identical, which do you think Joe average will walk out the shop with? will he pay the premium for Blu-Ray ? I dont think he will TBH.

And you can bet if everyone jumps to HD-DVD those movie houses loyalties will change over night.

do we really want the extra DRM systems that blu-ray brings to the table? What if more movie houses want to go the fox route and demand extra DRM for there titles, the blu-ray group would have to allow it, because they allowed it for fox.

the funny thing is when i visit some of my neighbors and friends homes most just have 32" CRT tvs with a DVD player hooked up to the tv. No sign of a surround system etc. Yet they think that's pretty cool.
For most people to go Hi Def means new hidef display + hi def DVD player.
for quality you need to spend more on the display not the DVD player, so considering that, HD-DVD becomes quite an attractive option..

I also worry what the hell they will stick on a 50GB disc. at times there's quite a lot of crap stuck on current DVD titles. As has been said 25GB
is more enough for a movie (and no layer change, yippee!!), so i dont really want another 25gb of crap i will not look at. Probably would be great for box sets. I also see only a couple of blu-ray titles are even on 50GB, most are on the smaller disc so i think this shows how much of a none issue the extra space is for HT.

Either way i think both formats may be a tuff sale to most who think DVD is heaven from there £30 DVD player. In picture terms there will not be much if any difference between Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. So other than a bit of space either format will be just as good to upgrade to. and from a movie only point of view, i doubt the extra space over HD-DVD will be used wisely if current titles are anything to go by.

Depends what happens in the next few months but at this point i have no problem buying a HD-DVD player when they launch.

The REAL killer will be the price of the films. if the premium is too much it will be a none starter for the public.

[mjcairney]

I don't subscribe to either but prefer to have the best format rather than the cheapest - VHS totally sucks even when they went SVHS it never even came close to Betamax - just remember that!!:lesson:

And that statement, I can assure you, is spot on. :lesson:

Cheers,

Martin.

[gandley]

And that statement, I can assure you, is spot on. :lesson:

Cheers,

Martin.


Which is fine for the beta v`s VHS battle, but as some industry insider have said there will be little to no difference in actual on screen Image between Blu-ray and HD-DVD. the choice this time is not so clear cut.

Yet the crappy format still won last time because it was a lot cheaper than betamax. I dont really care who wins, i just wish it would be a quick war, but im not sure its going to happen like that now price points are set.

HOWEVER

Blu-ray group still have time to amend there pricing

[alan_t]

its abit like +R and -R....most thought +R would win, as it was backed by some big names, but its not won n e thing.

as someone mentioned above, a dual format dvd player would make most sense.

[mjcairney]

Yet the crappy format still won last time because it was a lot cheaper than betamax.

Not really true - VHS won out because JVC were much happier than Sony to license out the technology to other manufacturers and did a much better marketing job.

Cheers,

Martin.

[gandley]

So if VHS was more expensive than bete it still would of won??

I dont think so. I agree price was not the only factor. Porn was quick to launch on VHS and in those days that sealed the deal for all the dirty perves who didnt have to go out in public anymore to watch there Frills.:)

[mjcairney]

I remember when I got my first Video Recorder - looked at all three (Betamax, VHS and Philips) at the time and decided (that was easy) that the Betamax was by far the best - don't seem to remember there being much difference in price between them - may remember wrongly, it was a long time ago.

Anyway, we are certainly in agreement about which was clearly the best format.

Cheers,

Martin.

[firefoxx]

the real use for high capacity discs is in the industry, for recording large amounts of high quality video (which was recorded with their expensive cameras). BBC, Fox, they'll all use it. Only people with hi def screens will actually see the slight difference it makes.

most of us have been playing games on PC in high definition for years; and yes the edges are sharper, things look crisper, but im not blowing money on equipment and buying the same films on a different disc just so i can watch what i've already seen.

its a gimmick and over-rated imo. If sony's PS3 is set at £300, imagine how cheap the parts inside will be, along with your new screen and new films. thats what they want you to do, blow money on it. im not changing from dvd cause it looks fine to me. alot of old films won't benefit from high definition.

its useful for people who record with expensive cameras, but for everyday Joe its a gimmick and nothing more.

[daKlone]

I think that the comparisons to the VHS v Betamax war are less appropriate than the DVD-R v DVD+R ones.

For VHS v Beta, you were talking about two technologies that were in no way compatable due not least to the physical media differences. Now, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are similar enough to allow dual-format drives to be a viable proposition (a la DVD-/+R drives now) and I think that is what will happen - the buying public will reject the idea of only being able to watch movies from certain studios and not others on thier Blu-Ray/HD-DVD player and wait for a multi-format device.

Still, I may be endowing the buying public with a common sense they don't deserve! ;)

[Grimleys]

Well I for one will wait until a player comes out that plays both formats & the software is readily available in the high street chains for no less than £20- a pop :cool:

[Mark4]

You may be disappointed if you're going to sit it out and wait for a dual-mode player. There are licensing restrictions in the BluRay contracts that don't permit this. Apparently Samsung didn't read the small print...

[Grimleys]

In that case I will buy one or the other - I'm not buying one player for each format...:mad: :thumbsdow

[swanny78]

We could be left with blu-ray in the US and HD-DVD here or vice versa......noooooooooooo.

[Jules]

I'm becoming increasingly convinced that both will flop like DVD-A and SACD. Absolutely convinced!

Both camps intend to force a slow a painful death on each other rather than swallow pride. Neither will give up the prize, so they will both die.

Sky HD may keep the HD dream alive in the UK, but Blu-Ray and HD-DVD are both a bad bet in my opinion.

[spocktra]

So if VHS was more expensive than bete it still would of won??

I dont think so. I agree price was not the only factor. Porn was quick to launch on VHS and in those days that sealed the deal for all the dirty perves who didnt have to go out in public anymore to watch there Frills.:)
I am not a perv i am just highly charged.:grin:

[ash]

In that case I will buy one or the other - I'm not buying one player for each format...:mad: :thumbsdow
What if they are £20 each :rotfl:

[HighDeff]

With prices like this on HD-DVD players, BLU-RAY might have serious problems, take a look.:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=6903355&&#post6903355

http://www.badwillhunting.com/archives/hddvdplayer.JPG :thumbsup:

[AndrewB]

Sounds like it may be time to think about selling the 3910 and I've only had it a year. At the risk of appearing totally stupid, part of the article relates to aperture size, since when has 0.85 been smaller than 0.65 or 0.6?:confused:

In optics, a larger number denotes a smaller physical aperture. Think of cameras: a lens at f/2 has a much larger aperture than one at f/8.

Andrew

[AndrewB]

Which is fine for the beta v`s VHS battle, but as some industry insider have said there will be little to no difference in actual on screen Image between Blu-ray and HD-DVD. the choice this time is not so clear cut.

Yet the crappy format still won last time because it was a lot cheaper than betamax. I dont really care who wins, i just wish it would be a quick war, but im not sure its going to happen like that now price points are set.

HOWEVER

Blu-ray group still have time to amend there pricing

I was reading an independent web site yesterday which claimed that Blu-Ray was much superior in terms of image quality to HD-DVD. Read this article then click on home and read the CES update in the column on the right:

http://www.dvdreview.com/html/new_format_war.html

Andrew

[Nic Rhodes]

Hmm, not the most convincing of arguements as to why he think blue ray better, the fact that other than the optical arrangements, many of the two systems are based on very similar technology seems to have been missed. People are even producing chipsets that can be used in either player!! Same chip.....

I still think this will be a price and time to market war....

[gandley]

The problem at the moment is you can click almost anywhere and pull an articule that seems to suggest A is far better than B or B is far better than A.

Those i know are independent have said otherwise, but until we have both formats here for comparison, i would take most reading with a pinch of salt.
This one really will be a case of your eyes will tell you whats best.


I still think Blu-ray will win.

[gandley]

Also i see panasonic have released the prices for blank Blu-Ray Media.

Perhaps not what people were hoping for?

Panasonic announced the introduction of blank Blu-ray Discs in both 25 GB and 50 GB capacities: LM-BE50DE, Rewritable, 50GB, Single-Sided, Dual Layer, $59.99; LM-BE25DE, Rewritable, 25GB, Single-Sided, Single Layer, $24.99; LM-BR50DE, Write once, 50GB, Single-Sided, Dual Layer, $42.99; and, LM-BR25DE, Write once, 25GB, Single-Sided, Single Layer, $17.99.

[Timbo21]

OOI, can anyone remember what DVD-/+R/RW were initially priced at?

[PJTX100]

The problem at the moment is you can click almost anywhere and pull an articule that seems to suggest A is far better than B or B is far better than A.


Agree. :thumbsup: Most of this is spin and posturing at this stage.

I don't care which one wins as long as one of 'em releases Bladerunner in Hidef. :grin:

[ash]

I remember that CD-RW were £20 befor. LOL!

[pjclark1]

When Joe Public sees a £30 dvd player next to a £500 HD-DVD and a £750 Blu-ray, all playing Finding Nemo, and they all look the same, guess which one will be purchased?

How many of you have a SA-DVD/CD player?

[gandley]

well lets face it unless you have a 1080P display there is almost zero point to having either blu-ray or HD-DVD.

So the first thing to sort out is getting a 1080P display.

[Kazman]

Bah! Format wars suck!

I'm staying well away until dual format players are released. My personal opinion is that Sony are shooting themselves in the foot with all the DRM restrictions, I personally feel that HD-DVD will win this, if any succeed.

It took long enough to persuade average Joe to ditch their VHS players in favour of DVD players, and 60% of them probably aren't even set up properly in the UK, most probably use nasty composite connections at the very best. I have a feeling both formats will crash and burn.

[harrisuk]

It took long enough to persuade average Joe to ditch their VHS players in favour of DVD players, and 60% of them probably aren't even set up properly in the UK, most probably use nasty composite connections at the very best. I have a feeling both formats will crash and burn.


I agree with this. The vast majority are happy with their cheap DVD players and £5 DVD movies. DVD succeeded because their was cross compatibility between the various DVD format discs (Except ram) from the word go. That and the fact that take up was so rapid that the cost of movies and players fell relatively quickly.

We wont get this with Blu Ray and HD DVD not initially if ever. This will put most people off. I also think Sony is working on a false premise if they think they can rely on the PS3 to carry the Blue Ray format.

They think they are going to shift 90 million PS3 as they did with the PS2 but they have real competition in the form of the 360 this time which has a head start and a big advantage in terms of reduced production costs and therefore retail price point.

I can’t see them shifting the numbers of PS3 they are expecting if they are going to sell it at the expected £400 - £500. I cant see HD Dvd being a mainstreeam format for some time, its the cost of the players, format war, hd screen requirments and the fact that most people are still happy with DVD.

[ash]

well lets face it unless you have a 1080P display there is almost zero point to having either blu-ray or HD-DVD.

So the first thing to sort out is getting a 1080P display.
Hmmmm... Whats wrong with a 720p display?

[Nic Rhodes]

works for me!!

[gandley]

well if you wanna blow your money on a 1080p native format, then i dont see the point in down converting to 720P. But thats me. I will sort a 1080p display then worry about which format i want to adopt. we all know how important a 1:1 pixel map is as regards pic quality

[Nic Rhodes]

Thats assuming we want / need 1:1 pixel maping, many of don't and that these new formats actually deliver 1080p.....previous HD formats have mostly delivered just 1080i, desite 720p claims, which makes the use of 720p - 800p 'about' right. I am unconvinced 1080p will take off. I see the main stream being 1080i and 720p.

[Fluffy-Bunny]

Why on earth would anyone prefer 1080i over 1080P?

[ash]

His original post was

well lets face it unless you have a 1080P display there is almost zero point to having either blu-ray or HD-DVD.
gandley, aint slating you. Everyone has their own opinion.

He says there is no point of having HD Media without a 1080p screen. But I think there is, because say someone has a 720p TV. Do they get a normal DVD or a HD Player? Obviously the latter when they come out. Because some people already ahve a NEW 720p set, so they cant get 1080p. I am not saying I prefer it over 1080p, because I support 1080p. Obviously we prefer 1080p, but we dont have a 1080p screen. gandley will be deciding after he gets his 1080p panel. Whereas I will get one, or both with my 720p set, unless I win the lottery or something LOL!

I think you might have written it wrong, or I misinterpretated(sp) you gandley.

[gandley]

Yeah im not saying a 720p display is a bad thing, i suspect you will get a better picture down scaling from 1080i/p because of the extra resolution in the original as oppsosed to upcaling 480i/p.

I was just passing on comments really off what i have seen in different threads from people who got to see 1080p and alot of hidef material and most comment on how you only really see the extra ability of HD once you have a 1080P display and can resolve the full resolution on offer. Even then some added that they thought that HD is being over hyped based on what they had seen. Sure its better but its not VHS>DVD better.

The main advantage should be the quality of the encoding. Due to the extra space we should see the end of poor compression, macro blocking (the encoded kind not the faroudja variation) image noise etc.

But a good DVD transfer holds up well.

Time will tell i guess, as somtimes its a little hard not to get caught up in the hype machine.

[Fluffy-Bunny]

I personally think that people are a bit mad buying new hardware right now, considering the immiment arrival of HD. I wouldn't buy a 720P screen either, whats the point when in a year or two's time, most of the screens sold will be 1080P?

I wont be splashing out on a 1080P screen until they hit reasonable prices, so I guess we can call that about 3 - 4 years.
I would love a 37" 1080P plasma, preferrably Panasonic, so lets see what comes!

[Nic Rhodes]

Why on earth would anyone prefer 1080i over 1080P?

I don't think anyone is suggesting this at all. In fact in a country where we have little or no 1080i capable CRTs then the use of 1080i is VERY questionable (unlike US). I hope SKY etc just does 720p.

I personally think that people are a bit mad buying new hardware right now, considering the immiment arrival of HD. I wouldn't buy a 720P screen either, whats the point when in a year or two's time, most of the screens sold will be 1080P?


There is always something new around the corner. This time last year most people here had not even seen 720p. Most didn't have 720p display facilities. Personally I think we will never see 1080p as a HDTV standard. The fact that it is not currently part of HDMI is doing it no favours, though HDMI easily has the capability.

Many of us are in no rush either to replace display technologies. There are many users out there who have had HD capable displays for MANY years and many who have run HD material regularly, often for 5 years + now. This crowd with the gamers will likely lead the uptake of new technology with SKY HD. I have seen little mention of the market being lead by the mythical HD DVD / Blue Ray machines.

Yes it is a lovely idea that all our new films will be MPEG 4, 1080P with HD audio codecs. The reality of most specifications are they are rarely used to their full as other equipment can't keep up. You only have to look at DVD, what it is capable of, and what we actually get to see this.

Much of all of this 1080p is speculation based on the 'numbers game' rather than what people have actually seen. When suitable kit does eventually hit the market I suspect things will be different again. There are many issues more important than resolutions, Panasonic plasmas, loved by everyone have made the market their own in the last 5 years by offering the lowest resolutions but good quality. Even terrestrial TV / SKY is down scaled!!

[welwynnick]

Sure its better but its not VHS>DVD better.

The main advantage should be the quality of the encoding. Due to the extra space we should see the end of poor compression, macro blocking (the encoded kind not the faroudja variation) image noise etc.
Gandly, I know it's academic and time will tell, etc, but I've really got to disagree with that. I think the jump from DVD to HD will be at least as great as from VHS. Only my opinion of course, but I've seen the best examples of all formats, and I think PQ is pretty much in line with resolution.

I don't think the encoding will be a great advantage. If anything, it seems MPEG 4 may make PQ worse than MPEG 2, but that has to be the price to pay for the greater compression. However, that is not comparing like with like, so the jury is out. HD will still be store and broadcast as compressed digital component video, which is a good thing, but just represents status quo.

FWIW, I have a 768 line display, but won't be happy until I have 1080p. I for one hope people don't stop with 720p, because that is such a waste WITH FILM. Half the data is redundant, so I think you may as well broadcast 1080i/50 and recover 1080p/24(ish).

That's what I'm really looking forwards to.

Nick

[gandley]

sorry but its not as good a leap, again IMHO:grin: .

While yes the lines of res may be more your forgetting how bad VHS transfers could be or the mass of grain etc or even quick ware on a tape. But for the most part VHS sucked.

I have 1080i version of the fith element, ok im down scaling it to 720p but its not a huge improvment over the superbit dvd version. and it is a 1080i master.

But until i have a 1080p display in my lounge then we are probaly both correct at this point

[gandley]

nicked this from PJ central via Grubert on AVS.


It will be interesting to see how consumers respond to what is shaping up to be an enormous price gap between 720p and 1080p. For example, the newly announced Optoma HD72 (1280x768), is a DLP projector rated a 1300 ANSI lumens and 5000:1 contrast. It features the new BrilliantColor technology from TI, and it will sell at street prices of just $2,000 this spring. Will typical broadcast HDTV look noticeably more "high-def" on a $20,000 1080p projector than it will on this $2,000 unit? Probably not. In fact it is possible that the HDTV 720p broadcasts from ABC, Fox, and ESPN (which constitute the vast majority of HD sports programming) will look a bit clearer and sharper on the HD72 due to display of the signal in native format. Certainly standard television and current DVD formats will not look much better on 1080p displays than they already do on 720p.

The bottom line is that the gigantic price gap between 720p and 1080p products cannot sustain itself over the long term in the marketplace, simply because the picture quality differential is not there to justify it. The reason is that the vast majority of video content that will be available is incapable of driving 1080p displays to their full potential. Early adopters with money to burn will go for the new 1080p products for the same reason that people buy Ferraris to drive around on city streets. But the astute consumer looking for the best value will buy the 720p models today and wait for prices on 1080p models to drop like a rock in the coming years. After all, broadcast HDTV and the new high definition DVD formats already look beautiful on today's 720p models, and there is nothing about the new 1080p format that will make this material look much better.

[welwynnick]

While I always hesitate to do so, I completely disagree of course, but it's going to take some time to resolve this one.

Regarding pricing, they are selling 1080p RPTVs in the US for just $2500 now. I don't think that's an enormous gap. It just takes abit of competition.

Nick

[rigman]

Yes it is a lovely idea that all our new films will be MPEG 4, 1080P with HD audio codecs. The reality of most specifications are they are rarely used to their full as other equipment can't keep up. You only have to look at DVD, what it is capable of, and what we actually get to see this.


That is a good point actually. The movie studios will be looking to sell us our favourite films a few more times so can we expect initial discs to be 720p with not many extra. Then they will release a 720p special collectors edition with some extras. Then they will release the 1080p editions with even better picture quality but no extras. Then.... etc etc

[harrisuk]

Its all about the sweet spot in the market. There are very few 1080p sets in homes even in the states. Most HDTV sets in ciruclation currently and at a reasonable price are 720p. A large number of HDTV users in the US actually use 720p CRT sets, becuase they are cheap to buy and produce a decent picture.

So 720p it is for the foreseable future, until prices come down to an affordable level and there is enough of an installed base for it to be worthwhile for broadcasts and films to be made available in 1080p.

We dont even have HDTV over here yet and there are no 1080p sets available in Europe currently so Sky certainly wont be supporting it for the foreseable future.....They are aiming the service at early adopters and without exception they have 720p screens.

I wanted to wait for 1080p projectors to become available and at an affordable price before upgrading. Then I relised it will could be years before they fall to sub £3000 prices.

[Fluffy-Bunny]

Well that Pioneer 1080P screen is due out in the summer in the US (and maybe Europe too) priced at $10,000, which is about £6000.

[Nic Rhodes]

$10,000 = £10,000

[ash]

Plus VAT :)

[Testanera]

Concerning Post number 6;
Though I can't comment precisely on the measuring practice re lasers, apertures aren't always measured as higher = larger. Take camera lenses.
F32 is a SMALLER hole than F11 aperture.

On a different note;
What amuses me more and more, is all this discussion (fine though it all is:thumbsup: ) about high resolution and definition, when the move to widescreen format TVs was for no reason other than that the movie studios could cancel the cost of producing Pan 'n' Scan 4:3 versions of films, and now resort to bunging black bars on our better resolution screens, thereby wasting a good chunk of this increased definition. The argument about 'seeing more' on a 21:9 movie is complete bunkum, as if the studios shot in 16:9 (as they SHOULD :mad: , to match everyone's new screen), the action would be shot appropriately. A more frequent (High Street) moviegoer might confirm that cinema screens are no longer quite so wide as they used to be (in this age of multi-screens) so there is less need to stretch the screen across so many people as in the days of one BIG (wide) cinema. The studios' argument for 21:9 fades. Just my speculation.
Black Bars displayed at 1080p? What a ridiculous waste.

[Drew2]

Testanera, what I have seen of 1080i is in 16:9 even when the original was shot in 4:3;They add graphic bars at the side to fill the panel. I would hope that 1080p will do the exact same thing - if you search my threads you can find images in the "upconversion" post showing the difference between a HD shot movie and what it looks like when transferred to DVD.

[Nic Rhodes]

What amuses me more and more, is all this discussion (fine though it all is:thumbsup: ) about high resolution and definition, when the move to widescreen format TVs was for no reason other than that the movie studios could cancel the cost of producing Pan 'n' Scan 4:3 versions of films, and now resort to bunging black bars on our better resolution screens, thereby wasting a good chunk of this increased definition. The argument about 'seeing more' on a 21:9 movie is complete bunkum, as if the studios shot in 16:9 (as they SHOULD :mad: , to match everyone's new screen), the action would be shot appropriately. A more frequent (High Street) moviegoer might confirm that cinema screens are no longer quite so wide as they used to be (in this age of multi-screens) so there is less need to stretch the screen across so many people as in the days of one BIG (wide) cinema. The studios' argument for 21:9 fades. Just my speculation.
Black Bars displayed at 1080p? What a ridiculous waste.

not sure I buy into your speculation ;)

[Lyris]

alot of old films won't benefit from high definition.
Hmmm? What's your reasoning for thinking that?

[Mr.D]

Man this thread is making me laugh. I'm going to ignore all the loony comments about aspect ratios and 16bit hdmi and films shot on HD.

My understanding is that given the same amount of space mpeg4 is potentially better quality than mpeg2. Not having a huge amount of experience in encoding maybe lyris can give us the facts.

Both formats are 1080p ...rejoice.

SVHS is way superior to Betamax in all but colour and even thats marginal.

I'd like to point out that the article posted about hd-dvd being inferior to blu-ray has Aladdin as a glowing example of its superiority ...animation is about the easiest thing to encode , even animation on vhs on a good deck deinterlaced well with some noise reduction ( as animation never has the detail level that live action has) can look impressive. What a crank. They could probably have gotten away with showing him the dvd.

Blu-ray is dead in the water. Its a white elephant and if it ever makes it to market no one is going to buy a player thats twice the price of the competition just as no-one will buy the PS3 when it comes out for 500quid. Sony must be chewing their legs off over that , if they didn't have a vested interest in the blu-ray tech they'd have switched the PS3 to hd-dvd or even good old dvd to get the thing out the stalls...it speaks volumes that dev kits for the PS3 have been available for a year but the drive isn't ready :rolleyes:

Blu-ray even sounds bad, boob-tube more like , it has that in common with betamax at least which always sounded second best ( where do they get the marketing guys from?)

You'll see all those studios releasing on hd-dvd, they can smell the blood in the water already , most of them don't have exclusivity deals with blu-ray anyway and the ones that do can shake them off in a heartbeat. Remember Divx? Remember Fox's stance on exclusivity ...until they saw their revenue stream disappear.

Foregone conclusion . I hope they have the sense to get the PS3 out in some sort of form sooner rather than later whether its got a blu-ray drive in it or not.

[Mr.D]

Hmmm? What's your reasoning for thinking that?

I posted a fairly long examination of this , there are undoubtedly films that will benefit and films that won't for myriad reasons.

[Mr.D]

There you go.

http://www.tvtechnology.com/features/Tech-Corner/F_Hoffner-03.09.05.shtml

[BadAss]

Blu-ray is dead in the water.

I think you'll live to eat them words. :rotfl:

If you want cheap BD, go for a PS3 at around £350

If you want cheap HD-DVD, go for Toshibas player at around £500.

If you want mid priced BD, choose from one of many manufacturers from around £600.

If you want Mid priced HD-DVD, erm................sorry your stuck with Toshiba.

If you want High End BD, choose from Sony, Pioneer for around £1000.

If you want High end HD-DVD, erm.............sorry your stuck with Toshiba again.

If you want 90%+ of the movies for your player, buy BD.

If you want 40% of the movies for your player, buy HD-DVD.

If you live and hope Universal will release BD disc, its not a question of if but when.

If you live and hope Sony/Columbia/MGM are going to release movies to a rival format sending its own format to hell. I think you'll see hell freeze over first.

[Mr Merrick]

I have seen many HD broadcasts of new and old films alike...and I have to say that I've been more impressed with the old re-releases than some of the newer movies out there.

HDNet (a US HDTV channel) have broadcast movies such as Dances With Wolves, Taxi Driver, One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest, Dog Day Afternoon, Duel, The Terminator and Blade Runner (to name but a few).

I can only assume that the studios have sourced the original film stock and have done an exceptional job of replicating it onto a digital format, most likely taking up many gigabytes of Hard Disk space. Even at a resolution of 1920x1080, we are only getting a teaser of what the digital master copy is capable of.

My points is that the picture quality in the digital domain relies primarily on obtaining the best possible source to work from. Some broadcasters have access to these high quality sources, but broadcast them at a low bit-rate due to bandwidth restrictions, resulting in macro-blocking (pixellation) during fast paced areas of a movie.

For the physical formats, factors such as disc authoring and data compression will play a large part in the success of Blu-Ray/HD-DVD.
Cramming hours of Documentaries onto a Blu-Ray disc and leaving 60% of its capacity free for the feature will be a bit of a let down for purists if studios opt for quantity over quality. We saw it before with DVD, and I for one don't want to see "Superbit Blu-Ray" re-issues five years down the line...

[Drew2]

If you want High End BD, choose from Sony, Pioneer for around £1000.


You can add Sharp and Panasonic into that list too...

[AML]

Man this thread is making me laugh. I'm going to ignore all the loony comments about aspect ratios and 16bit hdmi and films shot on HD.

My understanding is that given the same amount of space mpeg4 is potentially better quality than mpeg2. Not having a huge amount of experience in encoding maybe lyris can give us the facts.

Both formats are 1080p ...rejoice.

SVHS is way superior to Betamax in all but colour and even thats marginal.

I'd like to point out that the article posted about hd-dvd being inferior to blu-ray has Aladdin as a glowing example of its superiority ...animation is about the easiest thing to encode , even animation on vhs on a good deck deinterlaced well with some noise reduction ( as animation never has the detail level that live action has) can look impressive. What a crank. They could probably have gotten away with showing him the dvd.

Blu-ray is dead in the water. Its a white elephant and if it ever makes it to market no one is going to buy a player thats twice the price of the competition just as no-one will buy the PS3 when it comes out for 500quid. Sony must be chewing their legs off over that , if they didn't have a vested interest in the blu-ray tech they'd have switched the PS3 to hd-dvd or even good old dvd to get the thing out the stalls...it speaks volumes that dev kits for the PS3 have been available for a year but the drive isn't ready :rolleyes:

Blu-ray even sounds bad, boob-tube more like , it has that in common with betamax at least which always sounded second best ( where do they get the marketing guys from?)

You'll see all those studios releasing on hd-dvd, they can smell the blood in the water already , most of them don't have exclusivity deals with blu-ray anyway and the ones that do can shake them off in a heartbeat. Remember Divx? Remember Fox's stance on exclusivity ...until they saw their revenue stream disappear.

Foregone conclusion . I hope they have the sense to get the PS3 out in some sort of form sooner rather than later whether its got a blu-ray drive in it or not.


You honestly beleive that the PS3 wont sell? :god:
Of course it will. Even if it only sold well in Japan, (which it will as the 360 has done even worse than the first Xbox) that would still be reasoning enough for sony to push Blu Ray as a format.

Even if (and I doubt this very much) Blu Ray only did well in Japan, (as Mini disk did and still does) that would still be justification enough for sony to keep that format alive.

Why are they axing UMD for movies? Coz it hasnt done well anywhere. If it had been a success in Japan it would stay on for the long haul.

You need to understand that for Sony (being a Jp company) Japan is the primary market and any other market is secondary.

[Lyris]

There you go.

http://www.tvtechnology.com/features/Tech-Corner/F_Hoffner-03.09.05.shtml

I'm not sure what this has to do with the claim that old films won't benefit from HD? :confused:

Unless the film stock has degraded that badly, what makes you think a film from the 40s or 50s wouldn't benefit from being telecined again and stored on the disc at 1080p? Surely you don't think that the current DVD versions of old films are showing you 100% of the quality available from the source?

Or have I completely misunderstood you?

, as if the studios shot in 16:9 (as they SHOULD , to match everyone's new screen)
Do remember that film's a cinematic thing. Films are made to be shown in cinemas. If a director wants to use a wide aspect ratio because s/he favours working with it, then who's to stop 'em?

[ianh64]

Boy Oh boy. I waiting for this one to kick off. Lyris, do you know who Mr. D works for? I think he knows a thing or two.

[gandley]

But why would you want an old film on hidef. not been funny but who gives a s***. im not buyin blu-ray to watch some old crappy B&W film. i hear the larence of araiba films shaping up well and thats about as old as i need to go thx.

PS£ will sell shed loads, its a done deal already

In truth though there is still too much hype and spin. We need to get a reasonable player from both camps and then see who gives us what we want. Im not fussed which format is what just give me the best, but we wont know that till blu-ray gets going, then we can debate.

Considering that blu-ray can support mpeg4 as well i dont see that as an issue in the long term

both sides have there +`s and -`s

[Mr.D]

I posted the mpeg4 article as some comments have already been made along the lines that mpeg2 is better than mpeg4 which form my limited knowledge of these areas and certainly the article backs this up is untrue. Until the discs actually arrive someon suggested that Blu-Ray will give superior picture quality as it uses mpeg2 instead of mpeg4. Whether this will actually be the case the supposition that mpeg2 has inherently better quality than mpeg4 seems incorrect.

As Lyris does a bit of encoding in his spare time I was asking is opinion on this. Nothing to do with old films on hidef.

I've posted at length as to why certain older films are unlikley to benefit greatly from a hidef mastering over a good sd version . This has to do with things like , filmstock, camera and lighting technology at the time and film-making ideologies. It is not solely a question of age.

gandley I feel sorry for you....

The PS3 will not sell shedloads if it comes in at 500quid , I doubt it will sell shedloads at 400quid either to be honest. The majority of people that would buy a PS3 for its gaming abilities are not going to shell out that amount ( I doubt most would go as high as 300 even) and won't give a monkeys about blu-ray which is the primary reason for the high price of the PS3. Ironic considering the majority of the game discs will be bog-standard dvd.

Meanwhile you've got Xbox 360s lined up for 199quid with a stack of great titles minimal if any quality limitations compared with PS3 and an unchallenged leading online presence. Its highly likely microsoft will be offering hidef movie downloads on xboxlive by the end of the year, along with dreamcast back catalogues and potentially other classic gaming machines for minimal outlay.

And even if you want a PS3 unless you preordered months in advance you'll be reduced to paying a grand for one on ebay . Meanwhile those 360 bundle packs are sitting there waiting.

The majority of people that would buy a PS3 for its Blu-ray capabilities are likely going to opt for a better player rather than a games console with a tacked on version. That's if they are prepared to pay upwards of twice the price compared with an hd-dvd player.


Blu-ray has too many strikes against it . Sony execs must be puking on their shoes right now as its also blown a hole through their only genuine leader of the pack product.

[MartinImber]

SVHS is way superior to Betamax in all but colour and even thats marginal.

How do you decide this?

I have done the tests Panasonic SVHS deck vs Sony SL-HF950 and the picture was better on the Sony, better colours, more stable, less processed look. The SVHS deck looked like a B&W image with colour washed on it, a bit better resolution on B&W but was not as watchable as the Beta deck.


Blu-ray even sounds bad, boob-tube more like , it has that in common with betamax at least which always sounded second best ( where do they get the marketing guys from?)

Blu-ray is naff, but Betamax naff - not really, no worse than the competing formats. Vertical Helican Scan - a mouth full, Betamax, named after the tape path pattern, and Video2000 after how many they sold.

Video 8 was a decent name

[Mr.D]

Well svhs on my JVC (can't remember the model but its the top of the line one with the TBC) is rock solid , in fact even vhs is rock solid on it. I wouldn't say betamax even has better colour than this particular deck.

I used betamax on a 1 year AVT degree foundation course I did in the early 90s and I'd just never say it looked better than SVHS, maybe the colour was more robust on aging recordings but the extra res on svhs was a much better option.

However its kinda quiet today so I may do a bit of prowling around to see how much better the colour is/was.

Maybe we should have a poll: betamax or svhs?

[MartinImber]

The one thing everyone is forgetting, is that apart from Toshiba all the well known home electronics companies are behind Blueray.

In the past this wasn't so home video recorders started with 6 or 7 formats, quickly cut down to 3 from Matsush!ta, Phillips, and Sony, then Phillips capitulated, then the format war.

This time as with MiniDV all the big players are on the same side

[gandley]

Too much assumption.

look stacey spears has already said done properly mpeg4 should outdo mepeg2. (he is working with microsoft/HD-DVD on the tools i believe) But enough has been said that the difference in the start may be marginal, depending of the quality of encode.

PS£ will i think be priced somthing like £399. didnt the french sony exec just say the price will be 500euroish? at worst case it will be £499 but i doubt it.

Some places are already taking interest for PS3 and its already in the hundreds at each place, someplaces in the USA have shut the preorders down as there are already too many and have no chance of filling demand, and the price has not even been set yet.

PS3 will sell just fine, i know plenty of peeps who are just so eager to get it, iv seen this through my online games activity, i dont think people truly realize how many wanna pounce on this thing. most say they wont pay over £499

[Lyris]

As Lyris does a bit of encoding in his spare time I was asking is opinion on this. Nothing to do with old films on hidef.Ah, thought so.

The reason I had to object to the "old movies" thing though was because I've seen some transfers of old movies that are in some cases better than the filtered stuff Hollywood studios put out - The NTSC Criterion version of "Eyes Without A Face" (made in 1959). Screen grabs of that here (http://whiggles.landofwhimsy.com/writings/halloffame.html#eyes). My experience with old films is limited though - is the quality of most old film stock really only good for showing 500-600 lines-worth of resolution though, do you think?

Actually I've got no experience of MPEG-4 outside of encoding the odd overcompressed internet clip. MPEG-2 for DVD is all I've really got experience with :smashin:

I certainly don't know if MPEG-4 is "better" than MPEG-2, it all depends on the usage of course. MPEG-1 is actually usually better than MPEG-2 for really low bit-rates, they all have their own uses. If you want to see what MPEG-2 can do when it's done properly though, give the NTSC Criterion version of "The Rock" a good look over. Chapter 11 is stunning, it's this really fast car chase that's a compression nightmare - fast cars, tiny sparks flying everywhere, shattering glass, explosions... but there's barely even a trace of blocking on it, and it's not even obviously filtered either.

BTW, out of curiosity (and if you're allowed to post it) Mr.D, who do you work for?

[AML]

The PS3 will not sell shedloads if it comes in at 500quid , I doubt it will sell shedloads at 400quid either to be honest. The majority of people that would buy a PS3 for its gaming abilities are not going to shell out that amount ( I doubt most would go as high as 300 even) and won't give a monkeys about blu-ray which is the primary reason for the high price of the PS3. Ironic considering the majority of the game discs will be bog-standard dvd.
Meanwhile you've got Xbox 360s lined up for 199quid with a stack of great titles minimal if any quality limitations compared with PS3 and an unchallenged leading online presence. Its highly likely microsoft will be offering hidef movie downloads on xboxlive by the end of the year, along with dreamcast back catalogues and potentially other classic gaming machines for minimal outlay.

And even if you want a PS3 unless you preordered months in advance you'll be reduced to paying a grand for one on ebay . Meanwhile those 360 bundle packs are sitting there waiting.

The majority of people that would buy a PS3 for its Blu-ray capabilities are likely going to opt for a better player rather than a games console with a tacked on version. That's if they are prepared to pay upwards of twice the price compared with an hd-dvd player.


Blu-ray has too many strikes against it . Sony execs must be puking on their shoes right now as its also blown a hole through their only genuine leader of the pack product.

Sony did actually announce that all PS3 games will come on Blu Ray disks.

And while i have little love for Sony, I really do think they have another winner with the PS3.

[Lyris]

Personally I've never warmed to Sony gaming whatsoever - think the hardware is terribly unimpressive stuff. But would I not be correct in saying that the PS2 helped a lot to cement DVD (especially in Japan)?

Most of my friends had no interest in the format at all until they got PS2s. Obviously it'll all come down to the cost issue, but let's not forget that some Samsung LCD HDTVs can be had for incredibly cheap amounts and Sony are introducing their budget U-series that's designed to be sold in supermarkets. I guess the final cost of the PS3 will be the clincher?

[Mr.D]

I'm a visual effects artist , my job details are mentioned on here and not too difficult to find but I prefer not to draw attention to them as :

I don't like it when other members flash their credentials in an attempt to further reinforce their viewpoints during discussion. (bullying)

I'm not representing the thoughts or opinions of the company I work for when I post on here although there may be more crossover with areas of interest than with other people's professions given the topics under discussion.

There are plenty of films that will benefit from hidef transfers and plenty that likely won't and its not always down to age or even condition. I've mentioned it before in a massive and somewhat argumentative thread not so long ago.

[BadAss]

From what I've read the Toshiba HD-DVD players are having big problems with stutters. So it goes to show it never pays to rush a product out to get a headstart on the competition.

[Drew2]

But would I not be correct in saying that the PS2 helped a lot to cement DVD (especially in Japan)?

Most of my friends had no interest in the format at all until they got PS2s.

Having just owned the very first PS2 launched, I can confirm that it was a games machine as a first thought and a DVD player as a bonus. I had to download a 'driver' from an utility disc onto the memory card to make DVD-Video work; hence why DVD playback was poor. The latest PS2 which I have just bought (SCPH75000) is a 'stunning' DVD player and the digital audio is so involving, if this was my first DVD player I would be so happy with it.

The PS3 is first and foremost a 'Home utility hub' and although it will not reach it's intended purpose ( I saw the prototype 3yrs ago at Sony HQ) it will be a 'dynamite' Blu-ray' player and a 'stunning' HD games consul to boot! Being a 'Full' integrated home utility box was beyond economical production but also too advanced for current home application. Bring on PS7(Heaven).

[RunDMC]

The PS3 will not sell shedloads if it comes in at 500quid , I doubt it will sell shedloads at 400quid either to be honest. The majority of people that would buy a PS3 for its gaming abilities are not going to shell out that amount ( I doubt most would go as high as 300 even) and won't give a monkeys about blu-ray which is the primary reason for the high price of the PS3. Ironic considering the majority of the game discs will be bog-standard dvd.

So the PS3 won't sell....

And even if you want a PS3 unless you preordered months in advance you'll be reduced to paying a grand for one on ebay . Meanwhile those 360 bundle packs are sitting there waiting.


But the PS3 will be sold out?!??

Sony are going to be making 1 million consoles per month. They will sell every console they can make. This will be a success. Blu-Ray will get a tremendous boost off the back of it, maybe not the same as DVD but significant. The Playstation brand is huge, especially in Japan...

[Nic Rhodes]

They need to get the hardware working first at the price they want to sell the PS3 at. Might help a bit :)

[Mr.D]

I reckon its a broken arrow.

[BadAss]

They need to get the hardware working first at the price they want to sell the PS3 at. Might help a bit :)

That didn't stop Toshiba releasing their machine.

[Nic Rhodes]

But that is the whole issue here, this battle will be won on price and when the product is delivered, not on technical specs. Toshiba has a product, Sony does not currently.

[AML]

Just because Toshiba have a player now and sony will launch theres a couple of months later, doesnt mean sony will loose.
There simply isnt enough difference in the time frames. Yes, the PS3 is still 7 months away, but the first stand alone players will be out next month. (or so ive heard)

[Nic Rhodes]

But we still don't know the time frame and that is the issue and I don't mean the soft releases, I mean when we get serious number of players and software on the market, not a 'token'. You will know better than most how long BR has been 'available' in the Japan market. When I started talking about 2007 releases years ago for BR and HD DVD people used to skoff and fall off their seats launching, now Q2 2007 and they are basically still not here. For me, BR this means the PS3, as the mass market device for delivery of BR, and therefore the future of BR in intricadly linked with the PS3 launch whenever it might be. At the moment they need to sort technical issues out before they can launch.

[gandley]

Wait until E3. Sony are due to make there speech then. Other than that there is too much speculation to produce any accurate info for debate. Knox was full of crap, and thats already been rebuked. Sony have also rebuked the 500euro price claim as well. Just way too much misinformation and spin from either side at this point.

[petrolhead]

Also learn from the past.:lesson:

What won the VHS - Betamax war and which one is actually better!:confused:

If the industry backs one particular format it doesn't nesecarily mean it's the best one - usually the cheapest ie. HDDVD:thumbsdow

Blu-ray PS3 with 16bit HDMI will (WILL) change everything for the better!:clap:

Honest!;)

I don't subscribe to either but prefer to have the best format rather than the cheapest - VHS totally sucks even when they went SVHS it never even came close to Betamax - just remember that!!:lesson:

I was also going to make reference to the old Btamax/VHS and point out that Bmax was better but VHS won the war

Looking at the potential manufacturing dificulties with bluray and the higher price I wonder if joe public will end up deciding again who wins

[gandley]

Very possible

[mjcairney]

I wonder if joe public will end up deciding again who wins

Yes, he will, and if you look at the SACD v DVD-A situation, Joe Public has decided that neither will win and, if the manufacturers are not careful, the same thing could happen here.

Cheers,

Martin.

[shaithis]

Yes, he will, and if you look at the SACD v DVD-A situation, Joe Public has decided that neither will win and, if the manufacturers are not careful, the same thing could happen here.

IMO, they have already decided without even realising.

Why will Joe Public buy into either? For the most part he won't have a HD screen and only bought his DVD player in the last few years and still hasn't bought many DVDs for it anyway.

And he is now looking at DVD recorders as their prices are now fairly attractive to him.

I really fail to see how HD-DVD or BluRay will sell to people other then us enthusiasts. We just have 2 different LaserDiscs to choose from :god:

I guess there is a VERY slim chance that PS3 could make a difference but most people who buy one will be purchasing it for gaming and not for watching "films on expensive discs"

[BadAss]

Looking at the potential manufacturing dificulties with bluray and the higher price I wonder if joe public will end up deciding again who wins

These threads go round and round. How many times do people need to be pointed out the fact that the PS3 with its built in BD drive will be cheaper than any HD-DVD drive from Toshiba.:rolleyes:

Joe public will be buying into BD without even realising it. And when they do all they have to do is go out and buy the discs. Later if they feel the need for a better player then they have a wide choice from several manufactures, which by that time will be a whole lot cheaper than their are at the moment.

Can you imagine Joe public going into Comets and seeing ten HD players on the shelf. Nine are BD players and one is HD-DVD. Dont you think he'll question why their is only one manufacturer supporting HD-DVD? I know I would.

[BadAss]

I really fail to see how HD-DVD or BluRay will sell to people other then us enthusiasts. We just have 2 different LaserDiscs to choose from :god:


I think if you asked Sony what the long term plans are for BD they would tell you they expect BD to replace DVD, over time. Laser Disc was a niche market due to size and cost of the Hardware/software. BD is targeted at the masses and it will be their in 5 years time due to PS3 penetration.

[lfletcher]

But we still don't know the time frame and that is the issue and I don't mean the soft releases, I mean when we get serious number of players and software on the market, not a 'token'. You will know better than most how long BR has been 'available' in the Japan market. When I started talking about 2007 releases years ago for BR and HD DVD people used to skoff and fall off their seats launching, now Q2 2007 and they are basically still not here. For me, BR this means the PS3, as the mass market device for delivery of BR, and therefore the future of BR in intricadly linked with the PS3 launch whenever it might be. At the moment they need to sort technical issues out before they can launch.Although I dont disagree completely with what you say, the Toshiba launch in the US is hardly going to be big. 10,000 units is the figure that I've read will be available for launch - not exactly mass market. Even if it was 100,000 it still isnt large numbers, the PS3 will sell as many units as they can produce on release (as long as they dont price themselves out of the game).

If the PS3 is Blu Ray's mass market device - what is HD-DVD's? From where I sit it doesnt have one, and it certainly isnt the xbox360.

I know people keep mentioning the Betamax/VHS battle, but how was it actually won (i'm too young to remember)? Was it price? Content? Something else?

[Nic Rhodes]

the Toshiba launch in the US is hardly going to be big. 10,000 units is the figure that I've read will be available for launch - not exactly mass market.


Exactly, one format is 'just about launched in theory' with a small number of units. The second format still has things to resolve. Neither is currently mainstream. To make predictions on all these theoretical stuff is just way too early. Until we have a proper launch, proper prices everything is up for grabs. I still think it is down to price and time not whether it is BR or HD DVD, Sony or Toshiba. If there is kit in the shelves of Comet, people will buy it. At the moment I don't see any movement until Q3 at the earliest for all bar a TINY number of enthusiasts, who will have their 4 discs to play on their machine. Films they don't want anyway :(.

[shaithis]

Your also comparing a dedicated player to a games console though.

Yes, its conceivable that come Dec 31st, there will be a lot more BD players (PS3) out there then HD-DVD players....but everyone with a HD-DVD player will be buying HD-DVD films, how many PS3 owners do you think will be buying BluRay films?

I just find it odd that some people are talking like Sony have already won the war, when:

a) It hasn't even stated yet

b) There will probably be no winner (unless you count DVD or some yet-to-be-announced future format)

Its way too soon after DVD-adoption for there to be a new mass-format IMO.

[boksbox]

Your also comparing a dedicated player to a games console though.

Yes, its conceivable that come Dec 31st, there will be a lot more BD players (PS3) out there then HD-DVD players....but everyone with a HD-DVD player will be buying HD-DVD films, how many PS3 owners do you think will be buying BluRay films?

I just find it odd that some people are talking like Sony have already won the war, when:

a) It hasn't even stated yet

b) There will probably be no winner (unless you count DVD or some yet-to-be-announced future format)

Its way too soon after DVD-adoption for there to be a new mass-format IMO.


Perhaps neither will win, how many people currently watc DVDs via a games console/, just wondering as I've never come across anyone who does.
Do people somehow hink that they'll be able to get a Blue Ray player subidised by Sony and their PS3?

As time moves on, I look around at my collection of CDs and DVDs and see space, ots of it used up..maybe when it comes to HD films I'll opt for a downlaod or streaming service, I've no desire to house another 200 DVD cases, I rarely watch a DVD more than twice, I have CDs that haven't seen the light of a laser for 10 years.
I can see the format war being a phoney war with the public going off in a different direction if the downloaders/streamers get their delivery and marketing right.

[MartinImber]

I know people keep mentioning the Betamax/VHS battle, but how was it actually won (i'm too young to remember)? Was it price? Content? Something else?

A number

1) Manufacturer support - a lot more supported Vhs - Sonys screw up

2) Sony made it difficult to licence

3) Studio support

[Timbo21]

As time moves on, I look around at my collection of CDs and DVDs and see space, ots of it used up..maybe when it comes to HD films I'll opt for a downlaod or streaming service, I've no desire to house another 200 DVD cases, I rarely watch a DVD more than twice, I have CDs that haven't seen the light of a laser for 10 years.
I can see the format war being a phoney war with the public going off in a different direction if the downloaders/streamers get their delivery and marketing right.

I completely agree. Music is steadily moving this way from ipods etc. People are going to want to access music, TV programs, films etc. via the web. Even tho media pc's don't seem to properly deliver yet I'm sure people will look to have a one box solution rather than several boxes for hifi, Sky, DVD, HD players etc., as well as space for their CD's & films. Like you say, who wants stuff cluttering up their shelves, which has been watched or listened to a couple of times, & is taking up space & gathering dust. The answer is for any film you feel like watching, just download it & away you go. That has got to be the future.

[andythescientis]

I was also going to make reference to the old Btamax/VHS and point out that Bmax was better but VHS won the war

Looking at the potential manufacturing dificulties with bluray and the higher price I wonder if joe public will end up deciding again who wins

Wasn't it essentially the porn industry and swung things to VHS?

If so i wonder which format the porn industry will go with this time :)

[Dutch]

If so i wonder which format the porn industry will go with this time :)

I think only Digital Playground has announced support for Blu-ray so far, but I'm sure they and the others will deliver content on both formats if the market seems split.

Steve

[mjcairney]

Wasn't it essentially the porn industry and swung things to VHS?



There's no doubt that it was a big factor in VHS winning that particular war.

Cheers,

Martin.

[RunDMC]

Perhaps neither will win, how many people currently watc DVDs via a games console/, just wondering as I've never come across anyone who does.

Not many people would currently use a console to play DVDs, but when PS2 was released, it was a very important capability. Although DVD playback wasn't phenomenal, it was more than adequate for the price of the console. It certainly helped with DVD adoption.

Regardless of how you feel about things, BR has an advantage, with the presence of the PS3, that (currently with the Xbox 360) HD-DVD just cannot match.


Do people somehow hink that they'll be able to get a Blue Ray player subidised by Sony and their PS3?

They will though, won't they?
That is what Sony intends...


I can see the format war being a phoney war with the public going off in a different direction if the downloaders/streamers get their delivery and marketing right.

Agreed. It willl be interesting.

[lfletcher]

A number

1) Manufacturer support - a lot more supported Vhs - Sonys screw up

2) Sony made it difficult to licence

3) Studio support
So if history repeats itself and these 3 factors are important again it doesnt look overly good for HD-DVD?
Personally I don't care which one wins, I just want the best one to survive and the other to die a quick death.

My point regarding the PS3 is that if only 10% of the people that buy them bought films as well - you'll have a large market for Blu Ray films, perhaps as large as the number of HD-DVD players in circulation come the end of the year.

I'm also not convinced that the price of the players at the launch is massively important. According the manufacturers, early adopters will pay for a product. They arent looking for the cheapest option - they want the best (well that's Pioneer's argument for releasing an Elite player before releasing a cheapie one) and I tend to agree with it.

[SAH]

I think some are seriously underestimating the amount of knowledge amongst the mainstream with regards to HD and the new formats.

Game and genreral tech/gadget magazines have been banging on about HD for months, if not years.

Sky HD hype is also helping to spread the word.

[PJTX100]

Music is steadily moving this way from ipods etc.
When they can get an on-demand streaming music solution to the car, which is where I and a fair few people I suspect get their best opportunity for quality music listening, then I would perhaps agree. Until then a mass storage device such as the iPod Video is very much the sort of situation people are moving *to" not from. Certainly in my experience it has been a revelation. The access I have to my music collection now is totally unparalleled - thanks to an iPod video and a forty quid link to the ICE head unit.

Also I think there is a fundamental difference between music and video. Music is more of an "on the fly" form of entertainment where soundbytes and compilations play an important role. Also familiarity which comes with repeat playing plays an important part of the enjoyment experience. Films however are different, you (well I) wouldn't for example consider creating a compilation of say all the best bits of the alien saga. continuity and completeness of the film is important. I wouldn't watch King Kong 10 times when i first got it. It's normal for me to only ever watch a film once - only a very few would I watch repeatedly. I think this lends itself to more of a fixed format on a disc.

Just my two penneth anyway.

[Albion]

I often get the impression with Blu-ray v HD-DVD,that its not about the virtues of each system that are actually being highlighted.Its about I'm a supporter of Sony and the PS3 so Blu-ray is superior.

People who generally hate Blu-ray,have a thing about SONY and thus the Playstation series of consoles.Therefore HD-DVD is superior.Who knows it may even be as simple as the logo and the name.

Can I ask who prefers the HD-DVD logo and who prefers the Blu-ray logo.
Speaking from a purely simplistic view the name of HD-DVD and its familiar
logo will be the deciding factor.The fact that its probably cheaper,out first etc will do it no harm at all.

Another thing when I go to DVD stores generally I don't see kids buying DVD's.
Its mostly more mature types.Kids willl want PS3's for games.They will rent
DVD's for their PS3 but they probably won't buy.That's exactly what mine do.

I buy DVD's by the bucket load,and I don't play them on a console.I want a player or DVD drive.Older people buy back catalogue titles,and there will be thousands of those.Kids won't buy them.
This is not scientific I know,but it makes a lot more common sense.For this reason in my opinion HD-DVD will likely prevail.

[gingerone]

I used to be in favour of HD-DVD over blu ray but I'm now of the view that unless the format war is over very quickly then both of these formats stand a good chance of going the way of dvd audio and sacd.
I just can't see the general public who are entrenched in the dvd medium leaping into either format if there is a black mark over which one is going to win at least until HD becomes a much bigger focus in this and other countries.
Personally I'm in favour of whichever one ends up being the best and we will not know this until later on in the year when extensive side by side comparisons can be done.
However I do think that sony will have an advantage with the PS3 as a lot of people who will not be prepared to stump for a player will get a taste for blu ray via the console instead. Hd-dvd are not going to have this carrot to dangle in front of consumers eyes.

[Timbo21]

Also I think there is a fundamental difference between music and video. Music is more of an "on the fly" form of entertainment where soundbytes and compilations play an important role. Also familiarity which comes with repeat playing plays an important part of the enjoyment experience. Films however are different, you (well I) wouldn't for example consider creating a compilation of say all the best bits of the alien saga. continuity and completeness of the film is important. I wouldn't watch King Kong 10 times when i first got it. It's normal for me to only ever watch a film once - only a very few would I watch repeatedly. I think this lends itself to more of a fixed format on a disc.


You will probably find that most people have music collections on CD or vinyl more than DVD collections. Music tends to have greater longevity in terms of repeat listening more than films etc. - as you rightly say that repeated listening is part of the enjoyment. Agreed that it's unlikely people will compile scenes from their favourite DVD's - although I wouldn't be surprised if some action junkies do, lol. Because of some albums now only containing a couple of good songs, ipods have become very useful for editing out all those boring album fillers.

I think there will be a place for a discs etc., whether it be for music, or video, for quite some time to come, since relying on hard drives as a long term storage medium is perhaps not that safe. Of course, one day soon our pc's will have a greater disc storage medium like Blu-ray, HD-DVD, so we will have the option of either watching from HDD or burn to disc. But of course, if the film or music is available from online servers then you could either pay a one off fee for each time you watch, or buy the film to burn to a disc, or keep on your HDD. In this instance then BD/HD-DVD's biggest use would be as a recordable format, which I know Blu-ray has always marketed itself as as well. I dare say it wouldn't be too hard for them to work it so you can do one burn to disc & once the disc has been verified as being successful you would then be blocked from making any further
copies.

[Lyris]

Regarding SACD and DVD Audio. I don't think these formats will go the same way.

Now it might just be me, but I think differences in video quality are far easier to notice (at first!) than differences in sound quality. People can walk into a store and see an Xbox 360 demo pod, and gain an understanding of what HD is - whereas, correct me if I'm wrong, audio is a lot harder to demonstrate outside of a purpose-built showroom.

People will gain knowledge of HD through SKY, the Xbox 360, and later the PS3.

[rahulkohli]

i read somewhere that HD DVD will cost only a few hundred thousand dollars to upgrade the software and a few machines in current DVD factories.
But with blu ray you will need a brand new mutli million dollar factory.

Which means Sony and others will have to invest much more money into it. I know they often sell at a loss on the hardware side but they are unlikely to sell at a loss on the disc side for very long. Could mean that price will be the governing factor and mean that HD wins in the long run.

[BadAss]

i read somewhere that HD DVD will cost only a few hundred thousand dollars to upgrade the software and a few machines in current DVD factories.
But with blu ray you will need a brand new mutli million dollar factory.

Which means Sony and others will have to invest much more money into it. I know they often sell at a loss on the hardware side but they are unlikely to sell at a loss on the disc side for very long. Could mean that price will be the governing factor and mean that HD wins in the long run.

What do Sony get for the extra technology, well they get 50gb storage space as oppose to 30gb on HD-DVD. This might not sound important now but lets see when Lord of the Rings comes out in 1080p with a True HD and nearly four hours worth of footage. HD-DVD is going to struggle.

Can some one confirm if this calculation is right. If a film runs at 25mb a second that = 1500mb a minute, 9gb an hour, 36gb over 4 hours? And thats not including any Sound tracks.

[Rimmer]

What do Sony get for the extra technology, well they get 50gb storage space as oppose to 30gb on HD-DVD. This might not sound important now but lets see when Lord of the Rings comes out in 1080p with a True HD and nearly four hours worth of footage. HD-DVD is going to struggle.

Can some one confirm if this calculation is right. If a film runs at 25mb a second that = 1500mb a minute, 9gb an hour, 36gb over 4 hours? And thats not including any Sound tracks.

I take it you mean 25Mbits per second?

A well encoded 1080p24 H.264 movie will have an average bit rate of about 12Mbits per second. If you add in a lossless 24/96 5.1 soundtrack (and assume a compression ratio of 3:1) that adds a further 4Mbits per second. Additional lossy soundtracks will take up approximately 2Mbits per second. That comes to 16Mbits in total. Using these figures a LOTR:EE movie would take up about 29GB, just fitting onto a dual layer HD-DVD.

I don't claim forensic accuracy, so feel free to dispute these figures.;)

[AML]

It does fit, Just. But does that sound like a format that has a long future ahead in terms of storage? Not to me it doesnt.
30gb simply isnt enough these days.

If they could go quad layer, then maybe ok.

Storage wise Blu Ray is a clear winner, and that in itself could move many companies to sonys side. You need to think about the future, not just what you can do for now.

[Kazman]

I thought dual layer Blu-Ray discs were too unstable? And that they were just going to use single layer 25GB discs?

Have they sorted the instability issues on Blu-Ray now then?

[gandley]

last thing i read 50gb was complete and panasonic have 100gb disc in the lab

(think disney may have the first 50gb title)

[russraff]

I think that with the PS3 the important thing is: How much is Sony subsidising the machine? The more that Sony puts into the PS3 the more of a loss they will make per unit sold. This can only go on for some time before other factors - PS3 games - make each PS3 a profitable venture for Sony. Blu-Ray movies don't come into it at this point.

What is worth considering is how many of those early PS3 adopters are ardent movie buffs that will be willing to pay more for Blu-Ray movies, movies that they probably already have on DVD. By and large, most PS3 owners will be games players, with Blu-Ray a nice extra. Due to market focus, nearly 100% of HD-DVD adopters will be more that willing to pay a little extra for a HD movie and nearly all will have HD displays.

I can't help but feel that many PS3's will be bought, as with the Xbox360 perhaps, by gamers with SD TV's. This is especially the case when Mr and Mrs Normal buy little Joe a PS3 for Xmas "because its a Playstation and that's what kids like, isn't it?" and have it plugged into a 15" portable in his bedroom!

So, in terms of machines sold, there is little doubt to my mind that Sony will win out. What will be more interesting is: How much money are both formats generating and how many movies are being sold per drive.

Russell

[Lyris]

I thought dual layer Blu-Ray discs were too unstable? And that they were just going to use single layer 25GB discs?

Have they sorted the instability issues on Blu-Ray now then?
I'd assume so if they're shipping it. Oh - wait - nevermind! :grin:

[lfletcher]

last thing i read 50gb was complete and panasonic have 100gb disc in the lab

(think disney may have the first 50gb title)
Black Hawk Down is going to be 50GB title and is supposed to be a relatively early release.

[lfletcher]

I'd assume so if they're shipping it. Oh - wait - nevermind! :grin:
What in the same way you can buy 30GB HD-DVD discs? Oh wait, the 2 Japanese titles that are out are 15GB single layer discs :grin: Hmmm, wonder why that is?

[SAH]

'I can't help but feel that many PS3's will be bought, as with the Xbox360 perhaps, by gamers with SD TV's. This is especially the case when Mr and Mrs Normal buy little Joe a PS3 for Xmas "because its a Playstation and that's what kids like, isn't it?" and have it plugged into a 15" portable in his bedroom! '

I doubt 'Mr and Mrs Normal' will get anywhere near a PS3 until well into next year (unless they pay over the top prices on ebay).

Early PS3 adopters will be the same people who are signed up to Sky HD and have a HDTV.

Anyone who's even half interested in PS3 cannot get away from the HD hype and importance of HDTV/Blu-Ray.